Texas vs Duke Picks, Predictions, Betting Lines & How to Watch

• Preseason #1 Duke hosts Texas at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte on Tuesday night
• Cameron and Cayden Boozer will make their college debuts against a Texas team with just one top-100 recruit
• See the my Texas vs Duke picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and betting splits

The preseason #1 Duke Blue Devils (35-4 SU, 25-14 ATS last year) bring a roster stacked with freshman talent to the Spectrum Center in Charlotte on Tuesday night, where they’ll host the Texas Longhorns (19-16 SU, 16-18-1) in the season-opener for both teams. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:45 pm ET.

It’s hard to match the hype around last year’s Cooper Flagg-led Duke team but Jon Scheyer’s top-rated recruiting class does just that. Duke brings in four top-25 recruits, led by forward Cameron Boozer (no. 3 at ESPN) and his twin brother, point guard Cayden Boozer (no. 16 at ESPN).

Texas will lean on senior guards Tramon Mark (10.6 3.7 1.7) and Jordan Pope (11.0 2.0 1.7), who have to fill the massive shoes left by #6 overall pick Tre Johnson.

How to Watch Texas vs Duke

This early-season heavyweight tilt will be broadcast live nationally on ESPN. Live-stream options are also available on the ESPN app and Fubo TV.

Dave O’Brien, Dick Vitale, and Jay Bilas will call the game from the Spectrum Center.

Texas vs Duke Expert Picks & Prediction

• Under 153.5 (-110)

The three main analytics sites, KenPom, Torvik, and Haslametrics, have wildly different score projections for Texas vs Duke, which often happens at the start of a new season, especially when it comes to teams with massive amounts of roster turnover.

KenPom is the only site that has the total over 153.5, projecting an 82-74 Duke win (156 points). Haslametrics is on the extreme low end, projecting a 76.04-69.36 Duke victory (145.4 points). Torvik leans to the under, with a 79-73 Duke win (152 points).

Scheyer’s Duke teams have always played at a slow pace. In his three seasons at the helm, Duke has never once finished higher than 253rd in tempo.

Texas ranked 176th in tempo last season but that’s not overly relevant with Sean Miller taking over coaching duties from Rodney Terry this year. Miller’s Arizona teams didn’t play all that fast, only ranking in the top-100 once in 12 seasons. His more-recent Xavier teams were a different story, averaging the 49th-fastest pace over his three seasons in Cincinnati.

But even if the Longhorns’ plan to play a little faster, in general, this season, Duke is likely to control the tempo of tonight’s de facto home game.

• Texas Longhorns +9.5 (-110)

One thing that all the analytics sites agree on is that Duke is overpriced as a 9.5-point favorite. It’s always hard to know how a team stacked with talented freshmen will come out of the gate. There is more certainty on the Texas side, though. Mark and Pope took a backseat to Johnson last season, but they are talented seniors with a history of prolific scoring.

Mark averaged 16.2 PPG in 32.5 MPG with Arkansas in 2023-24 before transferring to Texas. Likewise, Pope averaged 17.6 PPG in 35.6 MPG with Oregon State in 2023-24. Their scoring numbers were way down last year, but that was entirely because there wasn’t enough ball to go around.

They will now be the undisputed senior leaders. Torvik projects Mark to average 16.8 PPG and Pope 15.6.

Miller didn’t bag any elite recruits but he did manifest an excellent crop of transfers. He brought 6’8 sophomore forward Dailyn Swain (8.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG) from Xavier, seven-foot sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis (10.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG) from FAU, and 6’4 junior combo guard Simeon Wilcher (8.0 PPG, 1.9 PPG) from St John’s.

There is plenty of talent and experience on the Texas roster to hang with Duke’s elite but hyper-inexperienced rotation.

Best Available Texas vs Duke Odds

The best available Duke moneyline is sitting at a short -450 (bet365) while the longest price on a Texas win is +400 at FanDuel. Underdog has the best Duke ATS option (-8.5 at -117) while BetRivers and bet365 have the best Texas ATS line (+9.5 at -110).

The game total shows a full one-point range, as well. Caesars is the best book for under bettors currently (U 153.5 at -110). Fanatics and bet365 are the best books for over bettors (O 152.5 at -110).

Public-Betting Splits for Duke/Texas

Tuesday’s college basketball public betting data shows Duke getting a ton of action, both moneyline and ATS. The moneyline splits are the most pronounced, with a staggering 99% of ML handle and 97% of ML wagers on Duke to win. The ATS splits have Duke getting 69% of handle on 67% of tickets.

The public has a strong lean to the under, as well, putting 66% of money and 72% of O/U wagers on the under as of 11:22 am ET.