Toledo vs Akron Picks, Predictions & How to Watch MAC Title Game

• Akron is a 7.5 to 8.5-point favorite over Toledo in the MAC Championship on Saturday
• The Zips are going for their third straight MAC Tournament title
• See my Toledo vs Akron picks, predictions and how to watch info for the March 14 MAC title game, below

The MAC Championship features No. 2 seed Akron (28-5, 17-1 MAC) against No. 4 seed Toledo (19-14, 11-7 MAC) at Rocket Arena in Cleveland.

Online sportsbooks have installed the Zips as 7.5 to 8.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. Akron is looking to become the first program to three-peat as MAC Tournament champions, while Toledo is chasing its first conference tournament title since 1980.

Here are my Toledo vs Akron picks and predictions, plus how to watch the MAC title game.

Toledo vs Akron Picks

Spread Pick: Toledo +8.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

My top Toledo vs Akron pick is the Rockets plus the points. Toledo is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

The Rockets actually outscore Akron on a per-game basis during the regular season. Toledo averaged 81.2 PPG compared to Akron’s 88.6 PPG, but the Rockets also play a faster pace. More importantly, Toledo shoots 48.9% from the field and 36.4% from three. This is not a team that will go quietly.

Toledo has navigated a tougher strength of schedule (.5339 vs Akron’s .5035), which contextualizes the 19-14 record. The Rockets are battle-tested and equipped for a championship environment.

Total Pick: Over 158.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

The first meeting hit 172 combined points (91-81), blowing past this number. The over is 6-0 in Akron’s last six Saturday games and 4-0 in both teams’ last four games against opponents with a winning record.

Akron averages 88.6 PPG while shooting 50.4% from the floor. Toledo counters with 81.2 PPG and elite guard play. Neither defense is built to slow down the other’s primary scorers.

Expect a track meet that clears this total.

Prop Pick: Tavari Johnson Over 19.5 Points

My favorite Toledo vs Akron prop is Johnson’s points over. Johnson is the best player on the floor and leads the MAC with 20.3 points per game. He shot 51.6% from the field this season and handles the ball in every crunch-time situation for Akron.

The senior scored 18 against Kent State in the semifinal and has cleared 20+ in the majority of conference games. In a championship setting with the Zips’ NCAA Tournament hopes on the line, expect Johnson to get volume.

Key Statistical Metrics: Toledo vs Akron

Toledo vs Akron Predictions

Toledo vs Akron Prediction: Akron Wins, Toledo Covers

• Final Score Prediction: Akron 83, Toledo 78

The first meeting on Jan. 27 fits this exact script. Akron won 91-81, but Toledo covered the 12.5-point spread with room to spare. That game featured 20 lead changes and was tied at 75 with four minutes left before the Zips pulled away.

Toledo has the backcourt firepower to hang around. Sonny Wilson (17.3 PPG) and MAC Freshman of the Year Leroy Blyden Jr. (16.3 PPG) combined for 42 points in that first meeting. They shot 57.4% from the floor in the semifinal win over UMass.

I project Akron advances to the NCAA Tournament, but Toledo makes them sweat. Look for the Zips to pull away late with Toledo covering the spread.

How to Watch Toledo vs Akron

Toledo vs Akron Odds

Odds as of March 14. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.

The Toledo vs Akron odds have the Zips as heavy -385 moneyline favorites, giving them an implied win probability around 79%. A $20 bet on Akron at -385 would return just $5.19 in profit, while a $20 flier on Toledo at +298 pays out $59.60 if the Rockets pull off the upset.