Troy vs Georgia Southern – Best Bets for Sun Belt Championship (March 9)

Published: March 9, 2026 at 4:00 pm EDT

Top seed Troy goes for the Sun Belt title tonight. — Troy's Thomas Dowd (1) dunks on a fast break during the Sun Belt Conference men's basketball championship game between Troy and Arkansas State at the Bay Center in Pensacola on Monday, March 10, 2025.

Georgia Southern has won six consecutive games, offering substantial value as 6.5-point underdogs
Troy beat Georgia Southern 83-78 in their only meeting this season
Our A.I. tools determine the best bets for tonight’s Sun Belt Championship Game

With an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament at stake, it’s winner-take-all tonight when surprising 10-seeded Georgia Southern meets top-seeded Troy in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN2).

Georgia Southern, which entered the tournament 16-15, is attempting to complete its miracle run by winning a sixth consecutive tournament game in six days.

Troy (21-11) received a bye into the semifinals. But it’s a must-win for the Trojans, too, whose No. 86 RPI isn’t good enough to secure an at-large bid.

The teams met once this season, with Troy winning 83-78 at Georgia Southern on Jan. 24.

We break down the key metrics and trends and offer the best bets for tonight’s Sun Belt title game between Troy and Georgia Southern.

Troy vs Georgia Southern Best Bets

Spread Pick: Georgia Southern +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

After winning five games in five nights, fatigue is certainly a factor tonight for Georgia Southern. On the flip side, the Eagles enter this contest with undeniable offensive momentum, driven by a trio of scorers who thrive in tournament settings. While Troy offers a more balanced roster, spotting 6.5 points to an underdog with this level of perimeter firepower is a risky proposition for the favorite.

The core argument for backing Georgia Southern lies in its top-end shot creation. Tyren Moore has been electric, averaging 22.0 points per game while converting 42.9% from three-point range on massive volume (11.2 attempts per game). He is supported by Alden Applewhite (20.0 PPG) and Spudd Webb (17.6 PPG), providing the Eagles with three legitimate offensive engines. Applewhite has been particularly lethal, shooting 57.1% from deep in recent action, making him a matchup nightmare for opposing guards.

Troy counters with Jerrell Bellamy in the paint, who is posting 22.0 PPG on an efficient 64.3% shooting. While Bellamy will likely find success inside, if Georgia Southern dictates the tempo and converts their perimeter looks at their current clip, they should comfortably stay within two possessions or secure an outright victory.

Total Prediction: Over 150.5 (-110 at Bet365)

These teams combined for 161 points in late January. The statistical profiles of both programs suggest the market is underestimating the scoring potential here. The consensus total of 150.5 appears conservative given the offensive efficiency of the key stars involved.

Perimeter Proficiency: Georgia Southern isn’t just taking threes; they are making them at an elite rate. The floor-spacing provided by Applewhite (57.1% 3P) and Moore (42.9% 3P) forces defenses to extend past the arc, creating driving lanes and quick scoring opportunities.
Interior Efficiency: Conversely, Troy’s offense is anchored by Bellamy’s dominance in the paint. His 64.3% field goal percentage indicates Troy will maintain a steady scoring output at the rim, ensuring the scoreboard keeps moving even during perimeter droughts.
Pace Factors: With Webb pushing the tempo for Georgia Southern and Victor Valdes (13.0 PPG, 5.0 APG) orchestrating the offense for Troy, both teams possess capable ball-handlers who can generate offense early in the shot clock.

Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting market reveals distinct splits, particularly regarding the underdog’s chances and the expected pace of play.

Spread Trends

The betting public is demonstrating significant confidence in the underdog. Currently, 60% of spread bets are backing the Georgia Southern Eagles, with the money tracking closely at 59.9% of the stake. This consensus indicates that bettors respect Georgia Southern’s recent form and agree with the assessment that the Eagles can keep this championship game competitive.

Moneyline Movement

While the spread action leans toward the Eagles, the moneyline splits highlight a “sharp vs. public” dynamic. The Troy Trojans are receiving overwhelming support in ticket volume, commanding 94.25% of the moneyline bets. However, the actual money percentage drops drastically to 64.41%.

This discrepancy—where the ticket count is roughly 30 percentage points higher than the money handle—suggests that while casual bettors are backing the favorite to advance, larger, likely sharper wagers are targeting the Georgia Southern moneyline, identifying value in the upset potential.

Total Sentiment

There is little debate regarding the game’s tempo. The market is heavily skewed toward a shootout, with 84.71% of bets and 79.92% of the money pouring in on the OVER. This aligns with our analysis, as the combination of Troy’s interior scoring and Georgia Southern’s three-point volume is expected to clear the 150.5 threshold.

Troy vs Georgia Southern Stats

Statistic	Troy	GSU
Overall Record	19-11	19-15
Tournament Record	1-0	5-0
RPI Ranking	86	197
Strength of Schedule	0.5078	0.4464
Points Per Game	78.0	88.0
Points Allowed Per Game	70.0	79.2
Scoring Margin	+8.0	+8.8
Neutral Court Record	2-1	6-2
Current Streak	Won 1	Won 5

The most glaring anomaly is Georgia Southern’s recent offensive output. Averaging a staggering 88.0 points per game during their run, the Eagles possess the firepower to turn any contest into a track meet. This production supports the Over 150.5 as a primary play.

The engine behind this surge is perimeter efficiency. Alden Applewhite is shooting 57.1% from three-point range (16-of-28 in recent samples), providing elite spacing. Paired with Tyren Moore, who converts 42.9% of his deep attempts, the Eagles create a perimeter threat that stresses defenses to the breaking point.

Star Power Comparison

Troy: Victor Valdes (13.0 PPG, 5.0 APG) serves as the primary facilitator, ensuring the ball reaches Bellamy in high-percentage areas. His 1.67 assist-to-turnover ratio will be vital in controlling tempo against a frantic Eagles defense.
Georgia Southern: Tyren Moore (22.0 PPG) is the unquestioned focal point. His massive usage rate of 33.91% confirms the Eagles will live and die by his production. For prop bettors, Moore’s volume creates a high floor, aligning with our prediction for him to surpass 21.5 points.

Georgia Southern vs Troy Odds

The latest consensus betting lines for Monday’s Sun Belt Tournament matchup in Pensacola are listed below.

Moneyline: Troy -246 | Georgia Southern +200
Spread: Troy -5.5 (-112) | Georgia Southern +5.5 (-108)
Total: Over/Under 150.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 9, 2026, 12:28 PM UTC from consensus odds.

Betting Market Analysis

The market has seen distinct movement since opening. Troy opened as a -215 moneyline favorite, but early action pushed that price to -246, signaling confidence in the Trojans’ ability to cut down the nets. Interestingly, while the moneyline widened, the total dropped from an opener of 153.5 to 150.5, likely due to sharp money respecting Troy’s defensive metrics despite the Eagles’ high-scoring potential.

Implied Probabilities

Based on the current moneyline odds, the vig-free implied win probabilities are as follows:

Troy Trojans: 68.1%
Georgia Southern Eagles: 31.9%

Moneyline Payout Calculation

For bettors eyeing the moneyline, here is the potential return on a standard $20 wager:

Betting on Troy (-246): A $20 bet on the favorite would return $8.13 in profit, for a total payout of $28.13.
Betting on Georgia Southern (+200): A $20 bet on the underdog would return $40.00 in profit, for a total payout of $60.00.

The prediction site Kalshi also has ML markets available for tonight’s game. Troy to win contracts are trading for $0.70, which equates to -233 odds. Investing the same $20 in Troy contracts would return a $9 profit. Georgia Southern contracts are $0.33 per — or +203 odds. A $20 investment in Ga. Southern contracts would return $41 in profit.

In both cases, Kalshi offers slightly better value than the consensus books.

If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

Prediction Markets

Troy vs Georgia Southern

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Troy

69%

Georgia Southern

31%

Predict

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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