UCLA vs USC Picks, Predictions & Best Bets (March 7)

• UCLA is trading at 72 cents at Kalshi to beat USC on Saturday, March 7
• The Trojans have lost six straight, and were blown out by the Bruins a week and a half ago
• See my UCLA vs USC picks, predictions and best bets for March 7, below

Fresh off their most impressive win of the season, the UCLA Bruins (20-10, 12-7 Big Ten) visit state rival USC (18-12, 7-12 Big Ten) tonight in Big Ten play.

Prediction markets and online sportsbooks are siding with UCLA in the latest college basketball odds, pegging them as sizeable road favorites.

The action gets underway at 6 pm PT, 9 pm ET from the Galen Center, in Los Angeles, CA, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my UCLA vs USC picks, predictions and best bets for the March 7 showdown.

Prediction Markets

UCLA vs USC

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Kalshi

UCLA

72%

USC

29%

Predict

The Bruins are currently trading at 72 cents to beat the Trojans on Kalshi, which equals -257 odds in traditional sports betting terms. USC comes back trading at 31 cents, making them a +223 underdog.

Odds as of Mar. 7 at Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi referral code and get a bonus to bet on NCAA Hoops.

UCLA vs USC Picks and Predictions

• UCLA yes 72c at Kalshi (-257)

These two teams are headed in the opposite direction. The Bruins enter play winners of three of their past four games, beating #10 Illinois and #9 Nebraska along the way. UCLA hammered the Cornhuskers 72-52 in their best showing of the season, and confidence is riding high with March Madness right around the corner.

The Bruins have a 96% chance to find themselves in the NCAA Tournament champion odds bracket, and their recent hot run of form puts their resume in the top-40 nationwide.

This is a team that shoots the three exceptionally well and doesn’t turn the ball over. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is among the best in college basketball, and they boast two elite weapons in Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau, along with underrated perimeter scoring threats.

If there’s a reason for concern, it would be the record away from home (3-6), but nearly all of those contests were across the country. Tonight’s matchup at USC is just 12 miles from the UCLA campus, which means we’ll see a well-rested Bruins group with fresh legs.

Key Statistical Metrics: UCLA vs USC

The Trojans, meanwhile, are a mess. They’ve lost six straight coming in, four of which by 15+ points, and were blown by UCLA 81-62 a week and a half ago. USC started the season with three star players, but now they’re down to one.

Leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara has been dismissed, while Rodney Rice is out for the year. They still have some strong talent in players like Alijah Arenas and Ezra Ausar, but as a unit they’ve been horribly inefficient.

The Trojans are last in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage, and turn the ball over at one of the league’s highest rates. If there’s a glaring weakness on the UCLA defense it’s on the glass, but don’t expect USC to take advantage of that as they rank outside the top-100 in offensive rebounding.

Ultimately, form, player availability and motivation all heavily favor the Bruins. This is a team that has a ton to play for, while the Trojans have all but quit on this season. Expect a repeat of a week and a half ago, with another convincing UCLA win.

UCLA vs USC Best Bets

• UCLA Bruins Over 78.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)

Another reason to be down on USC is the state of their defense. They rank 266th in the nation in points allowed and have surrendered 81+ points in five of their past six outings.

The Trojans don’t do a horrible job of contesting shots, but fouling is a major issue. They send opponents to the line an average of 21 times per game, and those freebies add up quickly.

As mentioned, they also struggle to protect the basketball ranking 297th in turnovers. Those giveaways lead to extra possessions for the opposition, which is a dangerous proposition against an elite outside shooting team like UCLA.