UCLA vs South Carolina Picks, Predictions, Odds & How to Watch

• UCLA and South Carolina meet in the final of the women’s NCAA Tournament on Sunday
• South Carolina is a slight betting favorite
• See my UCLA vs South Carolina picks and predictions, plus the latest odds for the title game

Jump to: ODDS || H2H STATS || PICKS

How to Watch UCLA vs South Carolina

The Region 2 #1 UCLA Bruins (36-1) and Region 4 #1 South Carolina (36-3) are set to meet in the women’s NCAA Tournament championship game on Sunday at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 pm PT/3:30 pm ET.

ABC has the national-broadcast rights. The game can also be streamed live on Fubo TV, which SBD’s readers can try out free.

The Gamecocks opened as -155 moneyline favorites and -2.5 against the spread. On the morning of gameday, the UCLA vs South Carolina odds have moved even farther in the Gamecocks’ direction.

UCLA vs South Carolina Odds

Prediction Markets

ML, ATS, O/U

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Kalshi

South Carolina

62%

South Carolina -3.5

55%

Over 127.5

55%

Under 127.5

51%

UCLA +3.5

46%

UCLA

39%

Predict

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At prediction site Kalshi, South Carolina has shortened to 62¢ to win the national championship, which is the equivalent of a -163 moneyline price. UCLA has faded to 39¢ (equal to +156 odds).

The spread has gone up a full point to SC -3.5 and it could be heading even higher; the Gamecocks are priced at a short 55¢ (-122) to cover. UCLA is trading at 46¢ (+117) to keep the score within four points.

The game total is 127.5 with extra juice on the over (55¢/-122) and the under at almost even-money (51¢/+104).

Odds as of 10:33 am ET, April 5.

UCLA vs S. Carolina Team Stats

UCLA enters the title game with the top-rated offense at BartTorvik.com. The Bruins’ 132.1 ADJOE rating is 2.5 points higher than any other team and 2.9 higher than the Gamecocks. UCLA is also a very respectable fourth on defense (72.6).

South Carolina is more balanced, sitting third on both sides of the ball.

In the overall ratings, UCLA is one spot higher (3rd vs 4th) with just .01 separating them.

If the teams are so analytically even, why the significant lean to South Carolina in the odds?

The easiest answer is recency bias. The Gamecocks’ 62-48 rout of #1 overall seed UConn was the most impressive of the season by any team. The Gamecocks, who were 6.5-point underdogs, were the first team to make the Huskies look human. Dawn Staley’s defense was relentless, holding UConn to 31% from the field and finishing +15 on the glass.

UCLA was impressive in its own right, though, especially defensively. The Bruins took down Region 3 #1 Texas (51-44). The Longhorns beat South Carolina twice this season.

UCLA vs South Carolina Picks & Predictions

No shade to the Gamecocks, but the Bruins are being undervalued. This line should be much closer to a pick’em, which creates solid value on UCLA to win outright.

Moneyline Pick: UCLA (39¢ / +156) at Kalshi

One of the biggest factors in South Carolina’s victory over UConn was its ability to control the glass. Rebounding was the Huskies’ main “weakness” all season (if they had any), finishing 82nd in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.

UCLA is one of the best teams on the glass, sitting second in DI in OREB% and 22nd in DREB%. Both of those outstrip the Gamecocks, who are 13th in OREB% and 120th in DREB%.

That combination of UCLA’s almost-nation-leading offensive rebounding percentage and SC’s pedestrian defensive rebounding stats is going to make it hard for the Gamecocks to create any separation.

The Gamecocks also got lucky to some extent against UConn. The Huskies shot an ugly (by their standards) 6-of-21 from three, just 28.6%. That was 10% lower than their season average of 38.5% (second-best in the country).

UCLA isn’t quite UConn from beyond the arc but the Bruins are top-ten in the country in 3P% (36.7%) and should be more in turn with the sightlines at Mortgage Matchup Center on Sunday than they were on Friday, when they shot just 4-of-13 from three (30.8%).

Game-Total Pick: Over 127.5 (55¢ / -122) at Kalshi

The total has dropped way too low and, again, that’s recency bias from the pair of low-scoring semifinals.

The total opened at 132.5 and has been bet down five full points to 127.5. That’s 11.5 points lower than the projected score at Torvik (70-69 UCLA, 139 total points.

I expect both offenses to be more effective in the previously unfamiliar surroundings.