UCLA vs Wisconsin Picks & Predictions for Big Ten Battle (Jan 6)
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- Wisconsin is a slight home favorite over UCLA on Tuesday night in Madison, WI
- Will Wisconsin’s dominant rebounding overcome UCLA’s efficient shooting?
- See my UCLA vs Wisconsin picks and predictions plus the latest odds and betting splits
A crucial Big Ten showdown takes place on Tuesday night as the UCLA Bruins (10-4, 1-1 away, 2-1 Big Ten, 6-8 ATS) travel to face the Wisconsin Badgers (9-5, 8-1 home, 1-2 Big Ten, 6-8 ATS) at the Kohl Center in Madison WI. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm CT/9:00 pm ET. Peacock will provide broadcast coverage of the game.
This marks the end of a two-game road trip for the Bruins, who lost badly at Iowa on Saturday (74-61 as 6.5-point underdogs). The Badgers are also coming off a loss, their first of the season at home: 89-73 to #5 Purdue as 5.5-point home underdogs.
UCLA has the better NET Rating (40th vs 63rd) and KenPom ranking (37th vs 44th) but Wisconsin is a 3.5-point home favorite. Below, I have set out my data-backed UCLA vs Wisconsin picks, followed by the latest odds and betting splits.
UCLA vs Wisconsin Expert Picks and Predictions
This Big Ten clash presents an intriguing betting landscape, with Wisconsin’s home-court advantage at the Kohl Center creating significant value against UCLA’s statistical strengths. The Bruins possess the firepower to keep pace, but Wisconsin’s interior presence and rebounding dominance present compelling matchup advantages.
ATS Prediction: Wisconsin -3.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Badgers transform into a different entity at home, posting an impressive 8-1 record this season. However, it’s worth noting that the majority of these home victories have come against teams ranked 151 or lower in the RPI. Their overall schedule includes six wins against teams ranked 151+, two wins against teams ranked 101-150, and one win against a team ranked 51-100. Wisconsin has yet to secure a victory against a top 50 RPI team.
UCLA isn’t exactly a giant slayer, though. The Bruins have two wins against teams ranked 51-100 RPI and two wins against teams ranked 101-150 RPI, with the majority of their wins (6) coming against teams ranked 151+. They are 0-3 against top 50 RPI teams.
Wisconsin’s offensive attack is spearheaded by guard Nick Boyd (19.5 PPG). Excellent support is provided by other players, including efficient forward Nolan Winter (14.4 PPG, 60.3% FG) and guard John Blackwell (17.5 PPG).
UCLA counters with forward Tyler Bilodeau, who averages 18.3 points while converting 91.8% of his free throws. However, the Bruins’ offensive flow runs through guard Donovan Dent, who distributes 6.5 assists per contest but also commits 2.54 turnovers per game. Wisconsin’s defense, anchored by Nolan Winter’s rebounding, should limit second-chance opportunities while capitalizing on UCLA’s ball-handling miscues.
The critical mismatch lies in the paint, where Wisconsin’s rebounding advantage will create extra possessions and limit UCLA’s offensive efficiency. Nolan Winter’s relentless pursuit on the offensive glass generates crucial second chances for Wisconsin’s scorers to exploit.
Game-Total Pick: Over 152.0 Points (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Both squads feature multiple elite scorers capable of pushing tempo and creating high-scoring sequences. Wisconsin boasts three players averaging over 14 points, while UCLA responds with four double-digit scorers. With multiple combined players averaging double-digit scoring, this matchup has all the ingredients for surpassing the posted total.
The biggest reason to bet the over is Wisconsin’s relentless pace. Yes, you read that right. The Badgers are playing at the 55th-fastest tempo out of all 365 DI teams. They had been in the 300s for eight of Greg Gard’s first ten seasons. This ain’t your daddy’s Badgers.
Best Player Prop to Bet: Nolan Winter Over 8.5 Rebounds (+100 at BetMGM)
Seven-foot center Nolan Winter is averaging 9.3 RPG and this projects as a big night on the glass for the junior. UCLA is just 32.8 135th in O-REB rate and a considerably-worse 232nd at the defensive end.
Winter’s consistent production on both ends of the glass, combined with UCLA’s tendency to generate longer rebounds off perimeter attempts, creates excellent value on his rebounding prop at even-money.
UCLA Bruins vs Wisconsin Badgers Betting Lines
The UCLA vs Wisconsin point spread has moved a full point in the Badgers’ direction since opening at WISC -2.5. UCLA is now catching 3.5 points across the board in Tuesday’s college basketball odds.
The Badger moneyline hasn’t really shifted. It opened at -169 and is still in the -165 to -175 range at all books. The Bruins are as long as +146 after opening at +130.
UCLA vs WISC Public-Betting Trends
Moneyline Splits: The public strongly backs the home team in Tuesday’s college basketball public betting splits, with 78% of all moneyline wagers on Wisconsin to win outright. The money follows suit, with a 68% of handle supporting the Badgers.
Spread Splits: ATS betting shows more division; 57% of tickets and 61% of handle favor UCLA to cover the number.
Game-Total Splits: 57% of all tickets target the under, but only 51% of O/U handle follows suit, a potential sharp-money indicator that favors the over.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
