UConn vs South Carolina Predictions, Expert Picks & Odds
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- UConn and South Carolina will meet on Sunday in Tampa for the 2025 national championship
- UConn demolished South Carolina on the road on Feb. 16 and is a heavy favorite to win Sunday’s title game
- See the UConn vs South Carolina predictions, expert picks, and latest betting odds for April 6
Though they finished the regular season second and third in the AP Poll, it’s hard to find a pundit who doesn’t think the UConn Huskies (36-3) and South Carolina Gamecocks (35-3) are the top-two teams in women’s basketball this season. So it’s only fitting that UConn and South Carolina will meet in Sunday’s national championship game at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, at 3:00 pm ET. The Huskies are heavy 6.5-point favorites in the latest UConn vs South Carolina odds while the game total has moved from an opening line of 131.5 to 135.5. Below, see my UConn vs South Carolina expert picks and predictions for the final women’s basketball game of the season.
UConn vs South Carolina Prediction & Picks
- UConn -5.5 (-131) at DraftKings
- Under 135.5 (-110) at Caesars
- Sarah Strong 18+ points (+110) at DraftKings
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As much as I believe in and respect Dawn Staley’s South Carolina program, I can’t get away from UConn in the championship game, even laying more than a handful of points. This team is an absolute truck that’s been blowing out all comers for the better part of three months.
One of UConn’s crowning achievements this season was ending SC’s 71-game home win streak back in mid-February. And they did so in style, blowing the doors off the Gamecocks with an 87-58 beatdown, spearheaded by a 28-point performance from senior guard Azzi Fudd (13.3 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.8 APG), who would be the #1 scoring option on 95% of teams in the nation but is the third-leading scorer on the Huskies.
UConn buried SC under a barrage of threes, going 13-of-28 from beyond the arc (43.7%) while holding South Carolina to just 17.6% from deep (3-of-17).
As good as UConn’s offense is – and it’s currently tied with Caitlyn Clark’s Iowa team for the best offensive rating (128.9) in the five-year history of barttorvik.com – it’s defense might be even more impressive. The Huskies also have the best D-Rating in the country at 70.0, a full point better than second-rated South Carolina (which is also a distant second in OI-Rating at 123.5).
It was the Huskies’ high-intensity, hyper-athletic defense that powered their Final Four rout of UCLA (85-51). UConn generated 13 steals and 19 total turnovers from the Bruins, including eight steals and 12 turnovers in the first half when the outcome was still in doubt.
South Carolina was impressive in its own right in the Final Four, distancing a very good Texas team (74-57) without a single player scoring more than 14 points, which is par for the course for this year’s edition of the Gamecocks: eight different players are averaging between 6.4 and 12.7 points per game.
That depth has proven enough to breeze past the vast majority of their opponents, but they’re just 2-3 against top-five teams in the Torvik ratings this season. In addition to the blowout loss to UConn, they were also routed by UCLA (77-62) on the road, and lost at Texas (66-62). Both top-five wins came against those same Longhorns.
UConn vs South Carolina Odds
Odds as of 1:17 pm ET at Caesars. Claim the current Caesars Sportsbook promo code for a bonus on the national championship game.
The UConn vs South Carolina spread opened at UConn -6.5, were bet down to UConn -5.5, but is now back up to 6.5 on the morning of gameday. On the moneyline, the Huskies have shortened considerably; UConn was originally a -238 bet to win the title and is now staring at -335 odds, which carries a 77.01% implied win probability.
South Carolina comes back as a +260 underdog (27.78% implied win probability).
The game total has jumped significantly from an opening number of 131.5 all the way to 135.5 with -115 odds on the over, indicating it could climb even higher before tip-off.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
