UConn vs Texas Picks, Predictions, Props to Bet & Closing Odds

• UConn is a massive favorite against Texas on Friday night in Hartford
• Under 145.5 represents strong value as UConn’s defensive prowess should limit a Texas offense that hasn’t faced this caliber of competition all season
• Alex Karaban’s exceptional 43.5% three-point shooting rate makes his Over 2.5 made threes the most confident player prop on the board

The #5 UConn Huskies (8-1, 5-1 home, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U) travel a half-hour west to Hartford on Friday night, welcoming the Texas Longhorns (7-3, 0-1 away, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U) to PeoplesBank Arena in a marquee non-conference game. UConn enters as heavy home favorites, riding a five-game win streak and with a single loss to top-ranked Arizona on their resume.

In its first season under Sean Miller, Texas is 7-3 through ten games, but just 1-2 against top-30 teams, losing its only prior matchup with a top-ten squad (75-60 to Duke in Charlotte, NC).

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET on FOX, with the Huskies positioned as substantial favorites in what promises to be a compelling David-vs-Goliath battle.

UConn vs Texas Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

ATS Best Bet: UConn -13.5 (-108) at DraftKings

The spread represents legitimate value despite the intimidating number. UConn operates as a precision offensive machine, averaging 79.8 PPG behind a balanced attack led by Alex Karaban (13.4 PPG, 43.5% from three), Solo Ball (15.0 PPG), and facilitator Silas Demary Jr (10.0 PPG, 5.1 APG).

The Huskies’ offensive efficiency stems from their elite ball security – their 2.03 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks among the nation’s best and reflects a veteran-level composure that Texas cannot match.

Defensively, UConn presents overwhelming advantages. The Longhorns rely heavily on Dailyn Swain (15.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and center Matas Vokietaitis, who averages 15.9 points on remarkable 67.5% shooting. However, Vokietaitis has feasted against inferior competition and will face his toughest test against UConn’s imposing frontcourt featuring Tarris Reed Jr (1.6 BPG) and Eric Reibe (1.3 BPG).

The Huskies possess the size and athleticism to neutralize Texas’s primary scoring threat while forcing the Longhorns into uncomfortable perimeter-heavy possessions.

Game-Total Pick: Under 145.5 (-110) at FanDuel

The total has dropped from its 146.5 opener, and I am following that sharp movement. This wager centers on UConn’s defensive capabilities rather than offensive concerns. The Huskies allow a miserly 61.7 PPG and feature active perimeter defenders in Demary Jr (1.8 SPG) and Jaylin Stewart (0.8 SPG) who will create havoc against a Texas backcourt unaccustomed to that level of defensive intensity.

The implied team total places Texas at approximately 65.5 points, a number that appears generous given the competition upgrade. For the over to cash, either Texas must exceed expectations significantly or UConn would need to approach 90 points.

The more likely scenario sees the Huskies build a substantial lead, forcing game flow to slow considerably in the second half as the outcome becomes academic.

Premium Player Prop: Alex Karaban Over 1.5 Made Threes (-128) at Sleeper

This represents my highest-confidence wager on the board. Karaban serves as UConn’s designated three-point weapon, attempting 4.6 triples per contest while connecting at an elite 43.5% clip. He’s converted 20 threes across 10 games, establishing consistent volume and efficiency that creates tremendous prop value at the current number of 1.5 O/U.

The game script favors Karaban’s success as UConn’s superior ball movement and penetration will generate numerous catch-and-shoot opportunities. When Texas defenders collapse on drives from Ball and Demary, Karaban will find clean looks.

His role as the primary beneficiary of UConn’s offensive spacing makes this prop nearly automatic in a game where the Huskies should control tempo throughout.

Texas vs UConn Odds & Betting Lines

The current Texas vs UConn point spread is as high as 14.5 at bet365 and as low as 13.5 at DraftKings. On the moneyline, Texas is as long as +850 at bet365, while the best ML price on UConn is a hyper-short -1099 at FanDuel.

The game total is 145.5 across the board with only slight variations in price. Under bettors can get -108 at DraftKings. Over betors won’t find better than -110 at bet365.

From a payout perspective, a $20 wager on UConn’s moneyline would generate just $1.80 in profit, illustrating the prohibitively short odds. Conversely, a successful $20 bet on Texas would yield $170 in profit, highlighting the potential

Odds and commentary as of 2:53 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically if the college basketball odds move sufficiently before tip-off.

Texas vs UConn Public Betting Splits

Friday’s college basketball public betting patterns show a contrast between spread and moneyline sentiment.

Against the Spread: Public money flows heavily toward the underdog, with 85.53% of spread bets and 82.91% of handle backing Texas +14.5. This overwhelming support for the road ‘dog creates a classic fade-the-public scenario.

Moneyline: The public overwhelmingly backs UConn on the moneyline, with 91.27% of tickets and money supporting the Huskies to win straight up. This split indicates bettors believe UConn will win but expect a closer game than the spread suggests—a perspective our analysis contradicts given the talent gap.

Game Total: The public leans toward fireworks, with 62% of bets and 61% of handle supporting the over.

UConn vs Texas H2H Statistical Comparison