UNC Asheville vs High Point Picks & Predictions for Big South Semis

• High Point is a 10.5-point favorite over UNC Asheville in the Big South semis on Saturday
• The Panthers have won 23 games by double-figures this season
• See my UNC Asheville vs High Point picks and predictions for the Big South semis

The High Point Panthers (28-4, 15-1 Big South) continue their quest for a second straight March Madness bid on Saturday, as they battle UNC Asheville (28-4, 15-1 Big South) in the Big South Tournament semifinals.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Panthers by a wide margin in the latest college basketball odds, pegging them as 10.5-point favorites.

The action gets underway at 12:00 pm ET from Freedom Hall, in Johnson City, TN, with ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my UNC Asheville vs High Point picks and predictions for the Big South semis showdown.

UNC Asheville vs High Point Picks and Predictions

ATS Pick: High Point -10.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

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We’ve seen this matchup play out twice already this season, and I’m convinced the result will mirror what we saw in the previous two contests. High Point thrashed the Bulldogs by 26 and 28 points respectively, and is fresh off a 22-point win over Gardner Webb in the conference tourney quarterfinal.

UNC Asheville meanwhile, had to scrape and claw their way to an 85-82 quarterfinal victory over Longwood Friday night, so not only are they overmatched by High Point, they’re now playing at a severe rest disadvantage.

Truth be told, you could give the Bulldogs a month to prepare for this contest and I’d still take the Panthers against the spread. High Point set a Big South regular season record this season with 27 wins, and has lost just once since December 14th.

Key Statistical Metrics: UNC Asheville vs High Point

23 of their victories this season have come by at least 10 points, and three of the wins have been by 40 points or more. They currently project as a 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament champion odds bracket, and have the ingredients to be one of those sleeper programs the public falls in love with.

From a statistical standpoint, these teams couldn’t be further apart. High Point led the Big South in offense and defense this season, averaging 15.5 more points and 5 more assists than the Bulldogs. They’re more efficient from the floor, and better on the boards, and their defense consistently earns them extra possessions.

No team in college basketball racks up more steals than the Panthers, which explains why they rate top-27 in field goal attempts. They also do a tremendous job of not only getting to the line but knocking down their freebies, splashing the ninth most free throws in the nation.

The team is led by Cam’Ron Fletcher, one of eight transfers brought in to completely reshape the roster. Fletcher previously played for Kentucky, Florida State and Xavier, and is one of four players that average double-figures per night.

UNC Ashville meanwhile, is extremely underwhelming offensively. They rank outside the top-250 in points per game, and 360th in assists per field goals made. The Bulldogs turn the ball over far too much, and unlike their opponent they don’t create extra possessions. UNC Asheville is outside the top-200 in offensive rebounding, and 316th in steals.

Guard Kameron Taylor is the Bulldogs main scoring threat, and he’s posted 24 or more point in three straight outings. However, the sophomore struggled badly in two regular season games versus High Point, going 10-for-31 from the floor, and 0-for-8 from beyond the arc.

Ultimately, this is a major mismatch and 10.5 points simply isn’t a big enough spread to justify the disparity between these two teams. Kenpom has High Point graded 160 spots higher in their rankings than UNC Asheville, while Bart Torvik has a 171 spot gap between the two programs.

The Panthers have won nine of their last 12 contests by 11+ points, and I’ll gladly wager on them to do so again versus this overmatched Bulldogs squad.