USC vs Michigan State Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Battle at Breslin Center

• The Spartans are big favorites over the Trojans in Monday’s Big Ten clash in East Lansing
• Foul trouble plaguing USC’s frontcourt creates a massive edge for Jaxon Kohler and Michigan State
• See my USC vs Michigan State picks and predictions, plus the latest betting lines and splits for Jan. 5th

A pivotal Big Ten showdown awaits as the USC Trojans (12-2, 1-2 Big Ten, 2-1 away, 6-7 ATS) venture to East Lansing to battle the Michigan State Spartans (12-2, 2-1 Big Ten, 7-1 home, 5-7-2 ATS) in a crucial conference clash. These two programs have had eerily similar seasons; both started 8-0 before falling to 8-1, and both lost last time out to drop to 12-2 on the campaign. The Spartans have played a harder schedule, though (rated 29th-toughest in the nation at KenPom, compared to 53rd for USC).

Michigan State enters as the heavy home favorite. The action tips off at 8:30 pm EST from the Breslin Center, with national coverage on Peacock. Below, see my data-driven USC vs Michigan State picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and betting splits.

Michigan State vs USC Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets

This Big Ten collision presents compelling betting angles, with Michigan State’s disciplined approach clashing against USC’s high-octane but undisciplined style. While backing double-digit favorites in conference play carries inherent risk, the underlying metrics point toward a comfortable Spartan victory at home.

USC vs Michigan State ATS Pick: MSU -10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

The foundation of my ATS pick lies in USC’s catastrophic lack of discipline. The Trojans commit an abhorrent number personal fouls per game; opponents are scoring 26.6% of their points from the line against USC, which is the fourth-most in the entire nation.

The Spartans are perfectly constructed to exploit this weakness. Their two leading scorers, forward Jaxon Kohler (14.1 PPG) and point guard Jeremy Fears Jr (11.7 PPG), convert from the line at 85.2% and 88.6%, respectively, ensuring Michigan State capitalizes on the extra opportunities. Fears is scoring 37.8% of his points from the stripe, though Kohler is scoring just 11.7%.

The Spartans also excel on the offensive glass, led by Kohler (10.4 RPG) and center Carson Cooper (7.4 RPG). MSU is ninth among all 365 DI teams in O-REB% (40.3%), compared to 151st for USC (32.1%). The Spartans are also second in D-REB%, compared to the Trojans in 240th. MSU will be able to create second-chance scoring opportunities while drawing additional fouls from USC’s compromised frontcourt.

USC vs MSU Game-Total Pick: Over 150.5 (-107 at BetRivers)

Both squads possess the offensive firepower to push this total over the number. USC features three of the Big Ten’s most prolific scorers in Chad Baker-Mazara (20.4 PPG), Rodney Rice (20.3 PPG), and Ezra Ausar (16.9 PPG). Ausar’s exceptional field-goal percentage (61.8%) demonstrates his efficiency near the rim.

Michigan State counters with a beautifully orchestrated offense directed by Fears. He fuels a balanced attack featuring four double-figure scorers, including Coen Carr (11.4 PPG) and Carson Cooper (10.1 PPG). The combination of USC’s scoring punch, Michigan State’s offensive efficiency at home, and the anticipated parade to the free-throw line makes the over the logical play.

The total has already climbed since opening at 148.5, indicating sharp money backing the higher-scoring outcome.

Best Bet: Jaxon Kohler Over 10.5 Rebounds (-120 at BetMGM)

Kohler over 10.5 rebounds represents the game’s premier betting opportunity. Kohler is a strong rebounder and now faces a USC interior defense anchored by players who struggle on the glass and consistently find themselves in foul trouble. As Ausar and Cofie are forced to play tentatively or spend extended time on the bench, Kohler will dominate the glass on both ends.

Kohler has recorded double-digit rebounds in nine of 14 games this season, including five in a row. USC’s foul-prone style and Michigan State’s emphasis on crashing the offensive glass create an ideal environment for Kohler to exceed his rebounding total.

USC vs Michigan State Odds

As of 3:05 pm ET, the best MSU moneyline is -602 (at bet365) while the best USC moneyline is a long +500 (at Caesars). The USC vs MSU point spread is 10.5 across the board, with almost all books offering -110 odds each way.

The total ranges from 150.5 to 151.5 with bet365 offering the best over price at the moment and FanDuel offering the best under number.

USC vs MSU Public Betting Trends

The college basketball public betting percentages reveal a clear divide between public sentiment and my analytical conclusions.

Public bettors are confidently backing the road underdog, with 55% of all tickets and 62% of all money supporting USC to cover the spread. The market appears to be overvaluing USC’s offensive capabilities while underestimating the impact of their defensive discipline issues in a hostile road environment.

As expected for a heavy home favorite, moneyline action is overwhelmingly one-sided. A massive 97% of all moneyline bets back Michigan State to win outright, with 92% of money following suit. Only the most contrarian bettors are willing to take a flyer on a USC upset at plus-money.

USC vs MSU Statistical Comparison

The season-long numbers reveal two programs with distinctly different philosophies, creating several exploitable mismatches that support our betting thesis.

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