Utah State vs Villanova Predictions, Spread and Betting Splits (West Region)

• No. 9 seed Utah State is a 1.5-point favorite over No. 8 Villanova in West Region 1st Round action
• The Aggies are a perfect 7-0 in neutral site games this season
• See my Utah State vs Villanova predictions below, plus the spread and betting splits for this NCAA Tournament game

Day 2 at the NCAA Tournament rolls on with a West Region matchup between the No. 8 seed Villanova Wildcats (24-8 overall) and the No. 9 seed Utah State Aggies (27-6 overall).

Villanova is making its first trip back to the Big Dance since 2022, while Utah is State riding high after dominating UNLV to capture the Mountain West Tournament title.

Online sportsbooks are favoring the lower seed in the college basketball odds, pegging the Aggies as small favorites in a game that I’m expecting to fall under the total.

Tip-off is scheduled for 4:10 pm ET this afternoon, at Viejas Arena in San Diego, California, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage. The victor will meet the winner of the No. 16 LIU vs No. 1 Arizona contest on Sunday in the 2nd Round of printable March Madness bracket, with a Sweet Sixteen spot on the line.

Keep reading for my favorite Utah State vs Villanova predictions below, plus see the spread and betting splits for this 1st Round March Madness showdown.

Utah State vs Villanova Predictions

• Utah State Moneyline (-122 at FanDuel)
• Under 147.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

To truly understand how these two teams match up, we have to dive deep into the numbers. When analyzing the resumes, the most glaring statistical mismatch is the team’s performance away from home. Utah State has been utterly flawless on a neutral floor this season, boasting a 7-0 record. Meanwhile, Villanova has notably struggled when stripped of its home-court advantage, limping to a 1-2 record in neutral-site contests.

Villanova does hold a slight edge in overall Strength of Schedule, largely due to a grueling slate against AP Top 25 caliber teams. However, being battle-tested is only valuable if it results in victories. Villanova went 0-6 against Top 25 opponents and just 1-6 overall against the Top 50. They are familiar with high-leverage situations, but they have consistently failed to get over the hump when facing March Madness championship odds caliber competition.

Utah State on the other hand, sits at No. 18 in the national RPI rankings, eight spots ahead of No. 26 Villanova, thanks to a tremendous 5-2 record against teams ranked between #26 and #50. Give me the Aggies on the moneyline.

Moving onto the total, where Under 147.5 is a clear bet for me. High-stakes tournament games often begin with offensive jitters, leading to defensive-heavy, grinding possessions where points in the paint are earned the hard way. Both teams carry high Opponent Winning Percentages (.560 for Villanova, .546 for Utah State), indicating they are accustomed to playing competent, well-structured opponents where defensive discipline is paramount. Post-season matchups between top-30 NET programs inherently favor long, methodical possessions, solidifying my Under prediction.

Utah State vs Villanova Spread

Odds as of March 19. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive FanDuel promo code to bet on the NCAA Tournament.

As of Thursday afternoon the best place to Utah State’s moneyline is at FanDuel, who is offering the line at -122 odds. That’s down from its -145 opener, while the spread has moved from the Aggies -3 to -1.5 over the course of the week.

Total bettors are going to want to get their Under action from DraftKings, as they’re posting a 147.5 point over/under, which is a full point higher than the rest of the market.

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Utah State vs Villanova Betting Splits

The sentiment in college basketball public betting circles aligns perfectly with my Utah State moneyline wager. The Aggies are drawing 56% of the betting tickets and commanding 59% of the overall stake. This indicates a solid consensus among both casual bettors and larger bankrolls that Utah State will survive and advance.

The spread market presents a fascinating split in betting behavior. Villanova has attracted the slight majority of the tickets, pulling in 56% of the bets to cover as underdogs. However, the heavier financial backing is on the Utah State side, holding 58% of the handle. While this divergence falls just short of a true sharp vs public situation, it is a notable indicator that the larger average wagers are trusting Utah State to cover the narrow number.

The most striking betting splits on the board come from the total market. Bettors are overwhelmingly anticipating a shootout, as a staggering 92% of the tickets are backing the Over. By locking in the Under, I am taking a contrarian stance, fading the public consensus and trusting my analysis that this contest will fall short of offensive expectations.