Vanderbilt vs Arkansas Expert Picks & Predictions (Jan 20)

• No. 15 Vanderbilt visits No. 20 Arkansas in a Top-25 showdown
• Our analysis targets the Over on a sky-high 174.5-point total
• Public betting data reveals prime contrarian value with money backing Arkansas while bets hammer the Under

Vanderbilt started 16-0, matching the best start in program history.

Since then? Not so good. Vandy has lost back-to-back games, getting blasted at Texas before playing better in a tight loss against Florida.

Such is life in the SEC.

Next up? A date tonight at No. 20 Arkansas, which has lost two of its past three games — albeit both losses were on the road.

The Hogs are at home tonight, where they are 10-0 with wins over then-No. 6 Louisville and then-No. 19 Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Our comprehensive breakdown examines the betting landscape, explores key player props, and delivers sharp picks for this high-stakes SEC showdown.

Vanderbilt vs Arkansas Prediction & Best Bet

The Pick: Arkansas -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Arkansas is a different team at home. Granted, most NCAA Tournament contender are, but the contrast is stark. The Hogs have failed to reach 80 points only once in their 10 home games. They’ve been held under 80 four times already away from home.

Vanderbilt has hit a tough stretch after climbing into the top 10, but has a chance to regain confidence tonight. Vandy is 1-1 this season against AP Top 25 teams, but this is the Commodores’ first such game on the road.

The Commodores’ offensive firepower centers guards Tyler Tanner (17.4 points per game), Duke Miles (17.3) and Tyler Nickel (14.7). Vandy averages 10.3 made three-pointers per game.

Arkansas counters with Darius Acuff Jr. (19.8 points per game, 6.3 assists).

A lot of the metrics favor Vanderbilt, but Arkansas has played tougher competition to this point. If the Hogs play as well at home tonight as they have this season, we expect them to cover to the 1.5-point spread.

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Best Bet: Over 174.0 (-110) at Bet365

Both offenses possess the firepower to push this total past the lofty 174.5-point threshold. Vanderbilt’s recent offensive explosions showcase their ability to light up scoreboards. Several Commodores average a high number of points, all shooting efficiently. Tanner converts well from the field while Nickel maintains an elite field goal percentage and a scorching true shooting percentage.

The Razorbacks bring their own offensive punch, recently engaging in high-scoring track meets and posting good points against stingy defenses. Acuff Jr.’s playmaking ability creates scoring opportunities for Meleek Thomas and Trevon Brazile, forming a complementary scoring trio. With both teams averaging a high number of points per game and Arkansas allowing many points defensively, the stage is set for an uptempo affair that eclipses the total.

This correlated two-leg parlay builds on a clear game script. For Vanderbilt to steal a road victory in a hostile environment, they’ll need explosive offensive production, with Nickel serving as the primary catalyst. His three-point barrage becomes the key to unlocking Arkansas’s defense and securing the upset victory.

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Public Betting Trends: Contrarian Value on Display

The college basketball betting public‘s tendencies create several fade opportunities, particularly highlighting the disconnect between casual sentiment and sharp analysis.

Moneyline: Public sentiment heavily favors the home team, with 65.87% of tickets backing Arkansas to win outright. More telling, a significant percentage of actual dollars support the Razorbacks, indicating larger bets from confident bettors. This creates immediate contrarian value on a Vanderbilt pick, as fading heavy public money often yields profitable results.

Spread: Bettors show more confidence in Vanderbilt’s competitiveness, with 72.51% of spread tickets on the Commodores and 62.95% of money following suit. The public expects Arkansas to win but believes Vanderbilt possesses enough firepower to keep the margin tight.

Total: The most significant disagreement emerges on the total, where 59.91% of bets and 62.86% of handle back the Under. This contrasts sharply with our Over selection, presenting classic fade-the-public value on what we project as a high-scoring affair.

Vanderbilt vs Arkansas Statistical Breakdown

Who has the edge in tonight’s SEC battle?

Vanderbilt’s impressive 4-1 record against current RPI Top 25 opponents contrasts sharply with Arkansas’ 1-3 mark in similar contests. (Keep in mind, Arkansas has wins over teams that were in the Top 25 at the time of tip.) This experience in high-leverage situations provides crucial mental fortitude for road environments. The key matchup centers on whether Arkansas can contain Nickel, whose conference-leading 46.9% three-point shooting creates spacing nightmares.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs Arkansas Razorbacks Odds

• Moneyline: Arkansas Razorbacks (-126), Vanderbilt Commodores (+103)
• Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks -1.5 (-110), Vanderbilt Commodores +1.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 174.5 (-107) / Under 174.5 (-112)

Information is based on available data as of January 20, 2026.*

The tight odds reflect genuine uncertainty in what projects as a coin-flip contest. Arkansas’ marginal favorite status stems purely from home-court advantage, with the slim -1.5 spread indicating oddsmakers view these teams as essentially equal on neutral courts. The sky-high 174.5 total confirms expectations for an offensive showcase, aligning perfectly with our Over recommendation.

Converting the moneyline odds to true probabilities after removing vig reveals Arkansas holding a 53.09% chance of victory against Vanderbilt’s 46.91% implied probability. This near-even split highlights the value proposition in backing the road underdog at plus-money.

Potential payouts illustrate the tight market dynamics:

• A $10 wager on Arkansas returns $17.94 ($7.94 profit).
• A $10 wager on Vanderbilt returns $20.30 ($10.30 profit).

The enhanced payout for the road underdog, combined with their superior résumé and statistical advantages, makes the Commodores the sharp play in this SEC showdown.