Villanova vs DePaul Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Mar 4)

• Villanova looks cover the spread and sweep the season series vs DePaul
• Defensive metrics from steals leaders Acaden Lewis and Layden Blocker support a contrarian play on the Under
• Lopsided public betting trends show over 98% of the spread handle is backing the road favorites to bounce back

Villanova visits DePaul tonight in a game that will impact Big East Tournament seeding. Tip-off is set for 8 pm, ET (Peacock).

The Wildcats are trying to sweep the season series after beating DePaul 71-66 on Dec. 31.

Villanova (22-7, 13-5 Big East) hopes to stabilize its rotation after a lopsided loss to St. John’s and the season-ending ACL injury to starting forward Matt Hodge. The Wildcats face a scrappy DePaul squad that has found a late-season rhythm, carrying a two-game winning streak—including a stunning road upset over Marquette—and a 16-13 record (8-10 Big East) into this contest.

From a betting perspective, the oddsmakers have positioned the visiting Wildcats as road favorites.

Our analysis breaks down the matchup, metrics and trends and finds the best bets for Villanova at DePaul.

Villanova vs DePaul Best Bets & Predictions

DePaul is 11-5 straight up at home, but the statistical disparities in the paint and the backcourt efficiency suggest the road favorites hold the cards in this matchup.

Spread Pick: Villanova -2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

The Wildcats have a clear identity crisis following the injury to Hodge, but their path to covering lies in dominant interior rebounding. The primary reason to back Villanova to cover this short road spread is the mismatch in the frontcourt. Villanova center Duke Brennan is currently leading the entire Big East in offensive rebounds with 116 on the season, providing the Wildcats with invaluable second-chance opportunities. Brennan is averaging a double-double with 11.9 points and 10.32 rebounds per game, and his ability to clean up the glass should neutralize DePaul’s defensive efforts.

Furthermore, Villanova’s offensive efficiency is anchored by freshman sensation Acaden Lewis, who sits second in the conference in assists (5.1 per game). Lewis’s ability to control the tempo and distribute to efficient scorers like Tyler Perkins (13.3 PPG) gives Villanova a reliability that DePaul often lacks in half-court sets. While DePaul’s CJ Gunn can fill the stat sheet (13.6 PPG), he requires volume to do so, attempting 345 field goals this season at a 41.4% clip. In a game projected to be tight, Villanova’s ability to generate high-percentage looks through Brennan (64.9% FG) gives them the edge to cover the 3.5 points.

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Total Prediction: Under 135.5 ($0.52 per contract at Kalshi)

The prediction site Kalshi is offering this market as well. You can purchase a Under 135.5 points contract for $0.52 per. If you invest $20 in Under contracts, you would profit $19 if the game total go under. It’s worth noting that these teams combined for 137 points in their first matchup.

The total for this game sits at a modest 135.5, and the defensive metrics for both squads point toward the Under. This matchup features two of the conference’s premier perimeter defenders who specialize in disrupting offensive flow. DePaul’s Layden Blocker is a menace in passing lanes, ranking 7th in the Big East with 1.66 steals per game. On the other side, Villanova’s Lewis is even more disruptive, forcing 58 total steals on the season.

Recent form supports this defensive outlook; DePaul is coming off a game where they held a potent Marquette offense to just 51 points. With both teams possessing guards capable of blowing up plays and forcing turnovers, a distinct offensive rhythm may be hard to come by. Additionally, Villanova’s reliance on Brennan operating in the post tends to slow the game down, maximizing possession length rather than engaging in a transition shootout. The consensus sportsbook market is slightly favoring the Under, aligning with the statistical expectation of a physical, defensive Big East battle.

Prediction Markets

Villanova vs DePaul Over/Under

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Villanova

57%

DePaul

45%

Predict

Note: Odds are from March 4 and subject to change. Please check your sportsbook for current lines.

Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting splits reveal overwhelming confidence in the road team, while the market holds a conflicting view regarding the projected point total compared to our expert prediction.

Spread & Moneyline Trends

The wagering activity for this Big East matchup is essentially one-way traffic in favor of Villanova. Bettors are showing little hesitation in backing the road favorites despite the raucous environment expected in Chicago.

• Spread: Villanova is commanding the market, attracting 80.17% of the spread bets. Even more notably, the handle supports this sentiment aggressively, with 98.35% of the money wagered on the spread backing the Wildcats to cover.
• Moneyline: The conviction extends to the outright winner market. Villanova has captured 94.01% of the tickets and 98.29% of the handle, leaving DePaul with less than 2% of the moneyline stake.

These numbers align perfectly with our Spread Pick (Villanova -3.5), suggesting the broader market sees the same mismatch in the paint and backcourt efficiency that we identified.

Total Trends

While the public is in lockstep with our spread prediction, there is a significant disagreement regarding the total. The betting market is firmly expecting points, contradicting our projection of a defensive struggle.

• Over: The Over is the popular play, drawing 72.38% of the wagers and 73.63% of the money.
• Under: Only 27.62% of bettors and 26.37% of the stake are on the Under.

Our prediction of Under 135.5 effectively serves as a contrarian play against the public consensus. While the majority of the handle anticipates a shootout, our analysis relies on the disruptive defensive metrics of Blocker and Lewis to keep the score lower than the market expectation.

Villanova vs DePaul Stats

Villanova vs DePaul Odds

The current betting lines for this Big East showdown at Wintrust Arena reflect a tightly contested matchup, with the visiting Wildcats favored by roughly two baskets.

• Moneyline: Villanova -175 | DePaul +144
• Spread: Villanova -3.5 (-110) | DePaul +3.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 135.5 (-111) | Under 135.5 (-109)

Odds as of March 4, 2026, from consensus.

The oddsmakers have set a relatively low total of 135.5, suggesting an expectation for a defensive grind rather than an offensive showcase, which aligns with the total trends discussed earlier. Villanova enters as the clear favorite on the moneyline at -175, implying they are the more likely side to secure the victory outright, though the narrow 3.5-point spread indicates respect for DePaul’s home-court advantage and recent upset wins.

Implied Probabilities

By removing the vigorish (the sportsbook’s fee) from the moneyline odds, we can calculate the true implied probability for each team to win the game.

• Villanova: 60.83%
• DePaul: 39.17%

These calculations reinforce the narrative that while Villanova is the statistical favorite, the math suggests DePaul has a respectable nearly 40% chance of pulling off the upset at home.

Moneyline Payouts

For bettors looking to back a winner on the moneyline, here is what a standard $20 wager would return for each side:

• Villanova (-175): A $20 bet on the Wildcats would yield a profit of $11.43, resulting in a total payout of $31.43.
• DePaul (+144): A $20 bet on the underdog Blue Demons would return a profit of $28.80, resulting in a total payout of $48.80.