#10 Virginia vs #3 TCU Predictions, Odds & How to Watch

• #3 TCU is a 7.5-point favorite over #10 Virginia in Sweet 16 action at the NCAAW Tournament
• The Horned Frogs lead the nation in opponent two-point field goal percentage
• See below for the Virginia vs TCU predictions, plus the latest odds and how to watch this Sweet 16 showdown

The final Sweet 16 matchup at the Women’s NCAA Tournament goes down tonight as #10 Virginia looks to continue its Cinderella run by upsetting #3 TCU.

The Cavaliers are the first team to advance this far after beginning the tournament in the First Four, but online sportsbooks expect the clock to strike midnight early this evening. They’ve listed the Horned Frogs as 7.5-point favorites, in a game with total of 128.5. Personally, I believe the total is a bit heavy given the defensive prowess of TCU, and will be looking to play the under.

Below, you’ll find my favorite Virginia vs TCU predictions, plus the latest odds and how to watch this Regional 4 showdown.

Virginia vs TCU Predictions

• Under 128.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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TCU suffered a surprise defeat in the Big 12 title contest, but that was their lone loss since February 8th. They’ve ripped off 10 wins in their last 11 games, and have had nearly a full week to prepare for the tournament darlings.

The Horned Frogs bring a capable offense to the table led by superstar Olivia Miles, who fell just 2 assists short of a triple-double last time out, but what they’re really known for is their defense.

TCU ranks second overall in opponent field goal percentage, and number one in two-point defense. Enemy shooters haven’t had much success from beyond the arc either, as they’re shooting just 26.8% from long range against the Horned Frogs. TCU also checks in ranked inside the top-10 in blocks, and their length inside and along the wings makes life miserable for opponents.

Virginia vs TCU Stats

As a result, enemy programs have struggled to generate points all season long. The Horned Frogs rank ninth in defensive rating, and have held six straight opponents below 62 points. Two of those opposing programs didn’t even reach 50 points, and I’m not convinced the Cavaliers have the talent to significantly punch back in this matchup.

Virginia is an incredible story, and what they’ve accomplished so far has shocked the women’s basketball world, but I believe it ends tonight. This is a program that ranks 58th in field goal percentage, and shoots jut 32% from three. They’re not a dominant rebounding team nor do they generate assists at an elite level, and they’ve been relying entirely too much on Kymora Johnson.

You aren’t going to knock off TCU by being one-dimensional, while the Cavaliers don’t have the size to challenge the Horned Frogs interior defense.

I’m expecting a slow paced, low-scoring game, just like the Horned Frogs played in the 1st and 2nd Round. Both of those contests fell short of 128.5 points, and this one will as well.

Virginia vs TCU Odds

As of Saturday afternoon, the best place to bet under 128.5 points is at DraftKings. If you’re looking to bet either moneyline, make sure to visit Kalshi. The prediction market has the best odds on both Virginia and TCU to win outright, beating the traditional sportsbooks by 30+ cents on each line.

Odds as of March 28 at DraftKings and Kalshi. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on Women’s March Madness.

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How to Watch Virginia vs TCU

Tip-off for this Sweet 16 matchup is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA. ESPN will handle American broadcast duties, while TSN will provide the coverage for Canadian households.