Virginia vs Virginia Tech Picks, Predictions & Lines (Dec. 31)

• Virginia enters as a road favorite despite Virginia Tech’s perfect 8-0 record at home
• Virginia is averaging 87.2 PPG
• Our betting analysis breaks down why the home underdog is poised to cover the spread

What better way for bitter rivals to open the ACC schedule than a New Year’s Eve date against each other?

That’s the case when No. 21 Virginia travels to Virginia Tech today. Tip-off is 2 pm, ET, Wednesday (ACC Network).

Both squads are hot. Virginia (11-1) has won six in a row; Virginia Tech (11-2) has won its past five. The Hokies boast a higher RPI rank (No. 29) and a perfect 8-0 record at home, the visiting Cavaliers (No. 59 RPI) enter as the road favorite in what promises to be a tense battle for early ACC positioning.

From a betting standpoint, this game presents a compelling dynamic: A strong road favorite looking to hand a tough underdog its first home loss of the season. This article will dive into the odds, analyze the statistics, and provide our best bets and predictions.

Virginia vs Virginia Tech: Expert Picks and Predictions

This rivalry matchup presents a classic betting dilemma: a talented road favorite against a perfect-at-home underdog. While Virginia enters with the better overall record, the Hokies have been untouchable in Cassell Coliseum, making this a difficult game to call. We’re breaking down the numbers to find the best value across the board.

We like two bets based on odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook: Virginia Tech to cover the spread, and for the teams to surpass the over.

Best Bet: Virginia Tech +5.5 (-113)

Virginia is the favorite, but laying 5.5 points on the road against an undefeated home team in a heated rivalry feels like a tall order. The Hokies have the offensive firepower to hang with anyone.

Virginia Tech’s offensive balance will be key to them covering this spread. They are led by forward Amani Hansberry, who is a force on both ends of the floor, averaging an impressive 16.3 points and 8.42 rebounds per game. He’s complemented by guard Neoklis Avdalas, a top-10 playmaker in the ACC who chips in 14.6 points and 5.0 assists per contest. While Virginia boasts an elite interior defense with shot-blockers Johann Grunloh (2.58 BPG) and Ugonna Onyenso (2.5 BPG), the Hokies have the perimeter shooting to counter. Jaden Schutt (44.9% 3PT) and Tyler Johnson (41.7% 3PT) can stretch the floor and open up lanes for Hansberry. Expect a raucous home crowd to keep the Hokies energized and in this game until the final buzzer.

Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110)

While both teams possess key defensive standouts, the offensive talent is too significant to ignore. The consensus total sits at 152.5, and we see value on the over. Both squads feature multiple players who can fill it up from beyond the arc. For Virginia, guard Jacari White is shooting a blistering 50% from three on over five attempts per game, while Thijs De Ridder (43.8% 3PT), Chance Mallory (44.1% 3PT), and Sam Lewis (40.9% 3PT) are all major threats from deep.

Virginia Tech has the firepower to match. Beyond Schutt’s elite shooting, three other key rotation players shoot over 35% from long range. With playmakers like Avdalas (5.0 APG) for the Hokies and Dallin Hall (4.2 APG) for the Cavaliers facilitating, there should be plenty of high-quality looks. In a game that projects to be competitive, expect both offenses to execute at a high level, pushing the final score past the posted total.

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Public Betting Breakdown

The college basketball public betting splits reveal a clear and consistent narrative. Bettors are backing the home underdog to keep things tight in a high-scoring affair, but they ultimately expect Virginia to win.

• Spread: The public is overwhelmingly siding with the home team. A commanding 79.94% of bets are on Virginia Tech to cover the spread. The money is in strong agreement, with 78.42% of the total stake also backing the Hokies. This heavy lean on the home underdog aligns perfectly with our best bet.
• Moneyline: While bettors love the Hokies with the points, they are backing Virginia to win the game outright. A massive 89.67% of moneyline wagers are on the Cavaliers, representing 84.83% of the handle. This suggests the public anticipates a Virginia victory, but one that is close enough for Virginia Tech to cover.
• Total: There is a strong consensus that this game will feature plenty of offense. The Over is attracting 78.2% of all wagers on the total. The money follows that trend, with 78.41% of the stake banking on a final score that surpasses the posted number. This is another area where the public sentiment matches our expert prediction.

Statistical Matchup Analysis

Here’s how UVa and Va. Tech stack up head-to-head.

The statistical comparison highlights several key mismatches that will likely decide this game. Virginia is more explosive on offense. The Cavs move the ball exceptionally well, reflected in their 17.7 assists per game and 1.84 assist-to-turnover ratio. This disciplined offense will test a Virginia Tech defense that allows over 72 points per contest.

However, the Hokies hold an advantage in the quality of competition they’ve faced. They are also among the nation’s best at protecting the basketball, committing just 9.0 turnovers per game.

The most glaring mismatch is in the paint. Virginia is an interior defensive team, averaging 6.5 blocks per game. Centers Johann Grunloh (2.58 BPG) and Ugonna Onyenso (2.5 BPG) form a formidable wall at the rim. This poses a major challenge for Virginia Tech’s leading scorer Amani Hansberry (16.3 PPG), who will have to work for every point inside.

For Virginia Tech to counter, they’ll need their perimeter shooters to step up. While their team-wide three-point percentage is a modest 31.2%, specialists like Jaden Schutt (44.9% 3PT) and Tyler Johnson (41.7% 3PT) have the ability to get hot and stretch Virginia’s defense.

Virginia is balanced, with six players averaging at least 9 points per game. Thijs De Ridder (16.1 PPG) leads the way.

Ultimately, the stats paint a picture that supports our predictions: Virginia has the firepower and defensive interior to win, but Virginia Tech is a tough, well-coached team with a significant home-court advantage and the offensive balance to keep it well within the 5.5-point spread. The high-scoring nature of both offenses points directly toward the Over 152.5.

Virginia vs Virginia Tech Odds

• Spread: Virginia -5.5 (-107) / Virginia Tech +5.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Virginia -230 / Virginia Tech +188
• Total: Over/Under 152.5 (O -111 / U -109)

Odds as of December 31, 2025, from consensus.

The betting lines confirm Virginia’s status as a solid road favorite, with a moneyline of -230. This line has moved significantly since opening at -178, indicating that money has been coming in on the Cavaliers to win outright. The spread sits at 5.5 points, a key number in basketball betting, with the juice (-113) slightly favoring the home underdog Hokies to cover. The total of 152.5 is robust for a conference game, reflecting the offensive capabilities of both teams and aligning with the public’s expectation of a high-scoring contest.

Based on the current consensus odds, the implied probability of a Virginia victory is 69.7%, while Virginia Tech has an implied probability of 34.7%. After removing the bookmaker’s vig, the normalized, or “true,” probability for a Cavaliers win is approximately 66.75%, with the Hokies’ chances at 33.25%.

For moneyline bettors, a successful $20 wager on Virginia would net a profit of $8.70. Conversely, a $20 bet on the underdog Hokies to pull off the upset at home would result in a handsome profit of $37.60.