Which March Madness Teams Are Overseeded/Underseeded According to KenPom, Torvik, Halametrics?
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- Which NCAA Tournament teams are better than their seeding, according to KenPom, Torvik, and Haslam?
- Which teams should be seeded lower?
- See all the data on overseeded and underseeded teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament
With the printable March Madness bracket now available, I have compared each team’s seed number against their overall ranking at the three main college basketball analytics sites: KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics.
The table below sets out each team’s average national ranking across the three sites, juxtaposed with their seeding in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. (In the table, KenPom is abbreviated as “KP”, Torvik as “BT”, and Haslam as “Hasl”.) The teams are listed by their average rank in the final column.
March Madness Seeds vs KenPom/Torvik/Haslam Rankings
Below, I break down the most underseeded and overseeded teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament
The Most Underseeded Teams in 2026 NCAA Tournament
1. Iowa Hawkeyes
The #9 seed in South Region, the Hawkeyes have the biggest gripe with the Selection Committee’s seeding, at least based on the advanced metrics.
Iowa has a better average national rating than nine teams that received a better seed. They are, in alphabetical order: BYU (#6), Clemson (#8), Georgia (#8), Kansas (#4), Kentucky (#6), Miami FL (#7), North Carolina (#6), UCLA (#7), and Villanova (#8).
Adding insult to injury, they were also rated as the worst #9 seed by the Selection Committee in the official 1-to-68 rankings.
The Hawkeyes are currently 2.5-point favorites over #8 Clemson in the round of 64. That’s up a full point from the opening March Madness first round odds.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State, the East #8, was jumped by seven teams, many the same that leapfrogged Iowa: Kansas (#4), Kentucky (#6), Miami FL (#7), North Carolina (#6), Saint Mary’s (#7), and UCLA (#7).
3. NC State Wolfpack
The one-word Wolfpack – a #11 in the West – are right behind the Buckeyes, getting leapfrogged by six teams that are analytically inferior: Missouri (#7), Saint Louis (#9), TCU (#9), Texas A&M (#10), UCF (#10), and Villanova (#8).
NC State’s underseeding had serious consequences: the Wolfpack will be forced to go the First Four route, squaring off with Texas in Dayton, OH, on Tuesday. They are currently 1.5-point chalk over the Longhorns in tomorrow’s college basketball odds.
4. Santa Clara Broncos
Before you go applauding the Selection Committee for including three WCC teams, note that no the Broncos were jumped by six (analytically) inferior teams: Clemson (#8), Georgia (#8), Miami FL (#7), Saint Louis (#9), TCU (#9), and Villanova (#8).
Santa Clara squares off with Kentucky in the first round and is catching 3.5 points. KenPom projects a two-point Wildcat win (81-79).
5. Vanderbilt Commodores
The better your seed, the harder it is to be leapfrogged. Honorable mention goes out here to the #5 Vanderbilt Commodores.
Based on the analytics, Vanderbilt is the 12th or 13th-best team in the country. That would suggest they should be on the #3 line or, at worst, #4. Yet the Dores are a #5. Four teams that rank below Vanderbilt, on average, are seeded better: Alabama, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kansas, all of which received #4 seeds.
The Most Overseeded Teams in 2026 March Madness
1. Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas wins this one in a runaway. The Jayhawks are somewhat inexplicably the East #4 seed, despite an average analytics rating of 22.7. The Jayhawks cut the queue ahead of ten teams: Iowa (#9), Louisville (#6), Ohio State (#8), Saint Mary’s (#7), St John/s (#5), Tennessee (#6), Texas Tech (#5), UCLA (#7), Vanderbilt (#5), and Wisconsin (#5).
The reasoning here is pretty simple, though: soon-to-be top-three pick Darryn Peterson didn’t play half the season. Kansas is elite with him in the lineup. I actually like the Jayhawks to get to the Final Four in my expert March Madness bracket.
2. Miami Ohio Redhawks
Miami Ohio’s fall from the ranks of the unbeaten had long been expected from analytical projection sites. Even when they were 31-0, the Redhawks only rated 88th at KenPom. They played a hyper-soft non-con schedule and the MAC only rated 17th-best out of all 31 conferences in the nation.
Nevertheless, Miami Ohio got its at-large big as a #11 in the Midwest and will head to Dayton to face SMU in the First Four. That’s still way too good for the Redhawks based on their metrics, though. Miami had to leapfrog five teams to get a #11 seed: Akron (#12), High Point (#12),Hofstra (#13), McNeese (#12), and Northern Iowa (#12).
The Redhawks are big 6.5-point underdogs to SMU in the First Four game on Wednesday.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
