Who Is the Public Betting to Win March Madness? Updated Public-Betting Splits for the National Championship

• Just 16 teams remain in the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament
• The public is betting heavy on chalk to win the national title
• See the updated March Madness national championship public-betting splits

A very chalky first weekend has whittled the March Madness field to the Sweet 16. According to the latest public-betting splits from theScore Bet, bettors expect more of the same from here on out.

According to the latest intel from theScore Bet, the five teams getting the largest share of national championship handle are: the three remaining #1 seeds and a pair of #2s. The table below sets out the top-ten teams, ordered by handle. Note that the statistics only account for wagers placed since the NCAA Tournament started on March 19th.

March Madness Nat’l Champ. Public Betting Splits

These ten teams account for 71.2% of total bets and a massive 84.4% of total handle, meaning the other seven remaining teams only account for 15.6% of handle, which is an average of just 2.23% per team.

If the handle was spread out evenly across all 16 remaining teams, each team would have 6.25%.

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Public Likes Duke to Win Title Despite Injuries

The Blue Devils have the largest handle share at 18.1% despite five other teams having a larger bet share: (1) Arizona, (2) Michigan, (3) Houston, (4) Florida, and (5) UConn.

Duke has attracted over 18% of the money on just 6.6% of the bets, which means that, on average, the wagers on the Blue Devils are much bigger than the bets on other teams. Historically, that’s a sign of sharp action. But when it comes to an event as mainstream as March Madness, don’t assume that all big bets are from professional syndicates.

If you don’t live in a region where theScore Bet operates, prediction site Kalshi has the Blue Devils trading at 19¢, which is equal to a +426 price tag in traditional sports-betting terms. (If you aren’t signed up at Kalshi yet, click “Predict” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.)

Prediction Markets

MM Champ Prices

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Kalshi

Michigan

21%

Arizona

20%

Duke

19%

Houston

11%

Purdue

7%

Illinois

6%

Iowa St.

5%

UConn

4%

St. John's

3%

Michigan St.

3%

Predict

Houston Cougars’ Stock on the Rise

When theScore Bet released its splits from Selection Sunday to Thursday, Houston was only seventh on the list in terms of total handle (6.4%) and ticket volume (6.9%).

After a pair of dominant Houston wins, the public seems to have remembered that Kelvin Sampson’s team was the national runner-up last year and is a credible title threat in 2026.

Houston accounts for 14.1% of money bet on the national champion in the last four days, which has come on just 8.9% of the wagers. That’s not quite as disproportionate as Duke, but it’s the second-largest discrepancy between ticket count and handle percentage.

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