Wisconsin vs Penn State Picks & Predictions for Jan 22

• Surging Wisconsin has won four games in a row
• The Badgers are heavy road favorites at Penn State, which is 0-7 in B1G games
• Our analysis reveals the best Badgers vs Nittany Lions picks

Surging Wisconsin visits Penn State tonight. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (FS1). This matchup is the lone Big Ten game of the night.

Wisconsin (13-5, 5-2 B1G) arrives riding a four-game winning streak. The Badgers’ RPI ranking of 43rd nationally reflects consistent quality play throughout the season. The Badgers feature a dynamic backcourt duo in Nick Boyd (19.9 PPG, 4th in Big Ten) and John Blackwell (18.6 PPG, 6th in Big Ten), complemented by interior force Nolan Winter’s double-double potential.

Penn State (9-9, 0-7) remains the only B1G team without a conference victory this season. The Nittany Lions have lost five in a row, but nearly delivered the biggest upset of the season when they pushed then-No. 2 Michigan before falling 74-72.

We’ll analyze the matchup and offer our best bets.

Wisconsin vs Penn State Expert Betting Analysis & Predictions

Best Spread Pick: Wisconsin Badgers -5.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Wisconsin’s dominance becomes evident when examining its +7.8 point differential compared to Penn State’s modest +0.6 margin. The Badgers average 83.5 points per game while allowing just 75.7, showcasing balanced excellence on both ends. Penn State’s 76.8 PPG offensive output pales in comparison, particularly concerning given its 0-7 conference record.

The Badgers’ backcourt tandem of Boyd and Blackwell provides consistent scoring punch that Penn State struggles to match. Boyd’s 19.9 PPG leads a Wisconsin offense that has found rhythm during its current winning streak, while Blackwell’s 18.6 PPG adds another reliable scoring threat. Penn State’s leading scorer Kayden Mingo (15.2 PPG) faces the daunting task of single-handedly keeping pace.

Michigan clearly overlooked the Nittany Lions — and it nearly cost the Wolverines.

As long as Wisconsin is focused on the task, the talent gap is great enough to easily cover the spread.

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Total Points Pick: Under 159.5 (-112) via FanDuel

Despite Wisconsin’s offensive capabilities, several factors point toward a lower-scoring affair. Penn State’s conference struggles suggest difficulty generating consistent offense against Big Ten-caliber defenses, potentially limiting their scoring contribution. The Nittany Lions’ desperate situation might lead to deliberate pace control, attempting to shorten possessions and keep the game manageable.

Wisconsin’s defense has been effective enough to support its 5-2 conference record, and if the Badgers establish an early advantage, they may opt for tempo control rather than pressing for additional scoring. The market’s line movement from an opening total of 161.5 down to 159.5 indicates professional money favoring the under.

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Public Betting Insights

The college basketball public betting market reveals compelling insights into professional versus recreational money flow, providing additional confirmation for our handicapping approach.

Moneyline Concentration

Wisconsin commands overwhelming public support with 93.3% of all bets and 91.58% of total money backing the Badgers for an outright victory. This unanimous sentiment aligns with our Wisconsin selection, reflecting broad recognition of the talent disparity. Penn State attracts just 6.7% of bets and 8.42% of money, indicating minimal confidence in an upset scenario.

Spread Distribution: Sharp Action Detected

While spread betting appears more balanced with Wisconsin receiving 51.46% of bets, the money distribution tells a different story. The Badgers attract 72.38% of total dollars wagered despite nearly even ticket distribution, suggesting larger, more informed wagers favor Wisconsin covering the -5.5 spread.

This sharp versus public differential – where professional money concentrates heavily on Wisconsin while casual bettors remain more divided – reinforces our confidence in the Badgers covering the number. The 48.54% of bets on Penn State +5.5 represents just 27.62% of actual money, indicating smaller, recreational wagers.

Total Points Lean

The Under 159.5 captures 56.55% of bets and 54.59% of money, showing consistent but not overwhelming support for lower scoring. Both percentages favor the under without extreme concentration, suggesting moderate confidence in defensive-oriented play rather than a high-scoring shootout.

Penn State vs Wisconsin Team Stats

Who has the edge Thursday night?

Wisconsin’s statistical dominance extends beyond basic records. Its RPI ranking of 43rd compared to Penn State’s 145th reflects consistent quality play against diverse competition. The Badgers’ 0.6622 adjusted win percentage significantly outpaces Penn State’s 0.4125, indicating superior performance relative to strength of schedule.

Wisconsin’s 7-0 record against teams with RPI rankings below 151 shows its ability to handle inferior competition.

Winter’s rebounding excellence (8.72 RPG, 4th in Big Ten) provides Wisconsin significant advantages on the glass, supporting both our spread and player prop selections. His 39 offensive rebounds create additional possessions while limiting Penn State’s second-chance opportunities.

Wisconsin vs Penn State Odds

Odds as of January 22, 2026, 1:49 PM UTC from consensus odds.

The moneyline pricing positions Wisconsin as substantial road favorites, with implied probabilities (removing bookmaker vigorish) suggesting the Badgers hold approximately 68.56% chance of victory compared to Penn State’s 31.44% likelihood. This pricing aligns with our statistical analysis and Wisconsin’s superior conference performance.

A $20 wager on Wisconsin at -251 odds would return $27.96 (profit of $7.96), while the same $20 bet on Penn State at +205 would yield $61.00 (profit of $41.00) if the Nittany Lions secure an upset victory. The 5.5-point spread reflects oddsmakers’ expectation of a comfortable Wisconsin victory, supporting our recommendation to back the Badgers laying the points.

Odds as of January 22, 2026 from consensus odds.