Wisconsin vs Villanova Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Villanova Wildcards are in Wisconsin to take on the Badgers on Friday night
• The Badgers will be looking to remain perfect on home their court
• See my Villanova vs Wisconsin picks and predictions, as well as the latest odds

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The Villanova Wildcats (8-2, 1-1 away, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U) and Wisconsin Badgers (7-3, 6-0 home, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U) will battle it out for just the third time in history Friday night at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Villanova is off to a strong start to the campaign but the Wildcats have benefited from a very home-heavy schedule, playing eight of their first 10 games in their own building.

They will have a tough task grinding out their second road win against a Wisconsin team that is undefeated at home. Although this is a technically a neutral-site game, the Badgers are still in their home state and will be eager to bounce back from an ugly 30-point defeat against Nebraska on Wednesday night.

Villanova vs Wisconsin Odds

The Badgers are currently trading as 4.5-point favorites in the Villanova vs Wisconsin odds. The best available moneyline price for the home side is -200 (at bet365). Villanova backers can find prices as long as +180 (at FanDuel)

The total varies a little bit from book to book. BetMGM offers the lowest total at 151.5 while those looking to play the under can find 152.5 at FanDuel.

Wisconsin’s -220 moneyline price carries a 67.7 implied win probability. Villanova’s +185 odds imply a win probability of 35.1%, indicating the home team should win nearly two of every three matchups.

Odds commentary and analysis as of 12:40 ET. The lines in the interactive table above will update automatically if the college basketball odds shift meaningfully before tip-off.

Villanova vs Wisconsin Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Villanova enters this contest in very good form. They’ve won eight of nine game since losing a close road game against a very good BYU team that opened with +1600 March Madness championship odds. The Wildcats have often gotten the job done with room to spare, winning seven of eight by at least 14 points.

ATS best bet: Villanova +4.5 (-105) at FanDuel

The Wildcats boast an offensive rating of 123.3 and a defensive rating of 104.5, good for a net of nearly 19 points. That slots them well ahead of the Badgers, who own ratings of 119.9 and 106.3 (+13.6) through the same amount of games.

Villanova has shot the ball much more effectively. They are converting on 47.2% of their shots from the field and just under 37% from deep. They are well ahead of the Badgers in both categories, with the latter converting on 44.2% of their shots and just 33.1% from downtown. Wisconsin’s abysmal 3-point shooting ranks them 214th in the country.

The Badgers do have a big edge from the free throw line, where they sport the 3rd highest free throw percentage at 80.2. That’s miles ahead of the Wildcats, who convert on just under 70% of their shots from the charity stripe.

Even so, the Wildcats rank nearly 30 spots above the Badgers in true shooting percentage. They also turn the ball over at a lesser rate and edge the Badgers out in offensive rebounds and assists per game.

Over/Under pick: Under 152.5 (-110) at FanDuel

This is likely to be a slower paced, more methodical brand of basketball. The Wildcats sit 330th in pace and 245th in free throw percentage. They won’t be looking to play a run-and-gun style, nor do they have the ability to pile up the points at the free throw line if this turns into a slug it out affair.

Wisconsin is coming off a blowout loss to Nebraska on the road in which they lost by 30 points and were completely embarrassed. They will want to tighten the screws defensively and keep things tight against a Wildcats team that sits 41st in offensive rating and is dangerous from range.

Villanova vs Wisconsin Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting splits reveal very different approaches to attacking this game.

Villanova is the preferred route on the spread, taking 67% of the bets and nearly 60% of the money. The majority is with us in our belief the Wildcats will keep this game close on the road.

Conversely, Wisconsin is being peppered by bettors on the moneyline. The market is banking on the Badgers rebounding from an ugly loss, with 84% of the bets coming in on the team with an implied win probability of more than 67%.

Our Under selection goes against the grain a little bit with 74% of the bets and handle coming in on this game to go Over the number.