2021 Sun Bowl Odds, Spread and Picks – Washington State vs Central Michigan

• After a hectic week of changes, the Washington State Cougars (7-5) will face off against the Central Michigan Chippewas (8-4)
• Washington State is favored by a touchdown at DraftKings
• Keep reading for odds, picks and a prediction for this matchup

Last-minute adjustments saved the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl this season, as Central Michigan was able to step in after the Miami Hurricanes were forced to withdraw due to COVID issues.

Central Michigan (8-4) made the short trip to El Paso after their own opponent backed out of their bowl game due to COVID issues as well,  and the Chippewas will take on the Washington State Cougars (7-5).

Both teams finished the regular season with momentum on their sides, but oddsmakers are not showing the Chippewas much respect in this matchup.

Washington State vs Central Michigan Odds

Odds as of Dec. 30th via DraftKings

The Chippewas are listed as 7-point underdogs at DraftKings. Oddsmakers also anticipate scoring to be on the higher end for this matchup.

Coaching Change Revives the Cougars

Washington State has faced adversity this season, as the players and coaching staff needed to adapt on the fly to a head coaching change around the midway point of the season. Nick Rolovich was dismissed, and Jake Dickert was named the interim head coach.

Trust. Discipline. Love. Competition.

The Dickert Era.#GoCougs | #BackHome | @CoachDickert pic.twitter.com/du3jHyt5qF

— Washington State Football (@WSUCougarFB) December 3, 2021

The Cougars program finished their season on a strong note, defeating two quality opponents in Arizona and Washington. They won by scores of 44-18, and 40-13, respectively. After starting the season slowly, losing three of their first five games, the Cougars won five of their last seven games as they began to find their stride and gain some momentum.

Champions.#GoCougs | #BackHome | @CoachDickert pic.twitter.com/H44XyejshW

— Washington State Football (@WSUCougarFB) December 3, 2021

The Chippewas Hit Their Stride

Central Michigan also has momentum on their side, as they won their last four games of the season, and they all came against bowl teams. They won these games in convincing fashion, with an overall margin of victory of 164 to 87. The Chippewas only lost four games all season, and two of those losses came at the hands of Missouri and LSU.

Highlights from our win against Eastern Michigan!
🔥 ⬆️ pic.twitter.com/SOBoytrvV7

— CMU Football (@CMU_Football) November 26, 2021

Key Statistics

Washington State allows an average of 379.1 total yards per game, which ranks them 67th nationally. Central Michigan, meanwhile, is ranked 12 spots lower, giving up an average of 393.6 yards per game.

However, Central Michigan has the more explosive offense. The Chippewas are averaging 33 points per game, good for 30th nationally. The Cougars, meanwhile, are ranked 66th in the country with an average of 28.4 points per game.

Lou Nichols III has 106 yards rushing today on 22 carries. It is his seventh consecutive 100-yard game; he is now second on the CMU single-season rushing list with 1,622 yards. Brian Pruitt holds the record with 1,890 in 1994. #FireUpChips

— CMU Football (@CMU_Football) November 26, 2021

One key statistic that I think will play a key role in this matchup is fourth down conversions. Central Michigan quite literally wasn’t even supposed to be here, so I think they know they are playing with house money and have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. This will allow them to play loose and free, and expect the Chippewas to have no hesitation about going for it if they find themselves in a fourth and short situation, even if they are near midfield or even slightly in their own territory.

When going for it on fourth down, the Chippewas are ranked tied for 46th nationally, at .571% (16-for-28). The Cougars, meanwhile, are tied for 103rd in the country in this metric, with a .421% conversion rate (8-for-19).

Sun Bowl Prediction

I think this game is going to be close. Both teams are battle-tested, although neither team managed to notch a win against a truly elite team during the regular season.  Washington State lost to Oregon by two touchdowns, while Central Michigan lost by ten points to Missouri, and then got blown out by four touchdowns against LSU.

The Cougars are slightly better on defense (allowing 1.92 fewer PPG than the Chippewas), while Central Michigan averages 4.6 PPG more than Washington State.

I think this game is close to a toss-up, and I could see either team winning. Give me Central Michigan and the points. Also, if you like to find value bets and are willing to take a little more risk, I would recommend sprinkling a small wager on Central Michigan straight-up as well.

• Central Michigan +7 (-110) 1u
• Central Michigan ML (+220) 0.25u