Frisco Bowl Odds and Picks – Prediction for Boise State vs North Texas

• The Boise State Broncos are 10.5-point favorites vs the North Texas Mean Green in the Frisco Bowl
• Both teams are coming off losses in their conference championship games
• See below for Boise State vs North Texas odds, analysis and our betting prediction

The Boise State Broncos (9-4, 8-0 Mountain West) and North Texas Mean Green (7-6, 6-2 C-USA) were each on the cusp of a bigger bowl stage.

Instead, a pair of lackluster finishes means they’ll battle in the lesser-known Frisco Bowl to close out the campaign.

It should be a good one, as it features one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, battling one of the top defenses in the NCAA.

The Broncos enter as a 10.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 58.5.

It all gets underway Saturday (December 17) at 9:15pm ET from Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. The game can be seen live on ESPN.

Boise State vs North Texas Odds

Odds as of Dec 14 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to bet on the North Texas vs Boise State game.

The Mean Green will be adjusting on the fly, as they canned head coach Seth Littrell after getting blasted by UTSA in their conference championship game.  Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett will take the reins for the season finale.

The Broncos watched their potential power-5 matchup fall by the wayside as they lost to Fresno State in the MWC championship game.

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Broncos’ Betting Outlook

Boise State’s perfect conference season record went up in smoke with a 28-16 loss to the Fresno Bulldogs, which also snapped their three-game win streak. It’s the third-highest point total they’ve allowed this season.

The Broncos could only muster three field goals through three quarters, and only found paydirt with just over five minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Taylen Green threw for 175 yards on a lowly 4.6-yard average, with one TD pass and getting picked off twice. This is a Broncos’ unit that is tied for 60th in FBS that averages 29.1 points per game, and they do much of their work on the ground, averaging 187 rush yards per game.

😤 SACK 😤@BroncoSportsFB's defense has been a problem for Fresno State. pic.twitter.com/rD26w57xTs

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 3, 2022

George Holani is their workhorse, piling up a second consecutive 1,000 yards season, totaling 1,133 rush yards and 10 touchdowns. He crossed the 100-yard plateau six times this year.

Boise’s real bread and butter is a defense that surrenders the 6th-fewest yards per game (281.5 yards) and just 18.5 points per game, which ranks 11th in FBS.

They play the pass and run equally well, limiting teams to 161 yards per game through the air (5th) and 121 yards on the ground (24th).

Mean Green Betting Outlook

How does a team that averages 33.9 points per game (29th in FBS), pass for 262.2 yards (36th) and churns out 201.7 yards on the ground each contest (24th) finish just a game over .500?

Look no further than the Mean Green defense, which forced North Texas to make a season out of outscoring their problems.

They had no such luck in a 48-27 loss to the USTA Roadrunners. The Mean Green allowed UTSA pivot  Frank Harris to throw for 344 yards and four touchdowns. Their rush defense didn’t do them any favors either, surrendering 227 yards and a pair of scores.

JYAIRE. SHORTER. 🙌

He fights through the contact and somehow comes down with the TD!@MeanGreenFB | @yungshorter5 pic.twitter.com/axWqJnVmqg

— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) December 3, 2022

North Texas is a last-page unit in so many categories, allowing 31.5 points per game (110th), while allowing 188.4 rush yards (107th) and 271 pass yards (115th).

Austin Aune, the 29-year-old Mean Green QB, struggled last time out, going 14-for-29 for 194 yards with one TD pass and a pair of interceptions. It’s been an otherwise banner year for Aune, though, as he tossed for 3,309 yards and (18th) and 32 TDs (8th) in the regular season.

Boise State vs North Texas Prediction

This is the third straight bowl game for the Mean Green, but they haven’t won one since 2013, and sport just a 2-9 bowl record.

North Texas has been a bad bet late in the year, sporting an 0-8 mark against the spread in their last eight December games.

Boise State has played just one bowl game in four years, but that’s all coincidence vs down years: lightning suspended the 2018 First Responder Bowl, the 2020 bowl season was wiped out with a shortened campaign, and the 2021 Arizona Bowl was canceled because of COVID.

They are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games, but they’ve been a solid bounce-back bet, going 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight after a loss. Boise State hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season.

Give me the better-rounded team, with a defense that should give North Texas issues.

The Pick:

• Boise State -10.5 (-106); 1 unit to win 0.94 units
• NCAAF Regular Season Record: 9-8 ATS, 1-0 ML, 1-3 o/u; -1.46 units