2022 Military Bowl Odds & Picks – UCF vs Duke Prediction

• The UCF Knights are 3.5-point underdogs vs the Duke Blue Devils in the Military Bowl
• Duke will be making their 15th bowl appearance in school history
• See below for UCF vs Duke odds, analysis and our betting prediction

The UCF Knights (9-4, 6-2 AAC) had bigger dreams than the 2022 Military Bowl.

However, with injuries and sudden changes to a roster that had already fallen short of the American Athletic Conference championship, they’re now betting underdogs against the Duke Blue Devils (8-4, 5-3 ACC).

Duke, primarily a powerhouse basketball school, has turned it around under first-year head coach Mike Elko. A win to close out the year would give the Blue Devils their ninth W, a plateau they’ve reached just six times in school history.

It all gets underway Wednesday (December 28) at 2pm ET from the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, MD. It’s a game you can catch live on ESPN.

2022 Military Bowl Odds

Odds as of Dec 26  at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to bet on the UCF vs Duke game.

Despite playing in their seventh consecutive bowl game, UCF enters this one as 3.5-point underdogs, with a total set at 62.5. This will be Duke’s 15th bowl appearance in school history.

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Knights’ Betting Outlook

The last time UCF was in action was the AAC Championship, where they lost 45-28 to the Tulane Green Wave. That ended any hope for the Knights to play in a New Year’s Six bowl game.

The news hasn’t been that great since. Starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee left that game with a hamstring injury, and while he did return, he wasn’t close to full strength.

John Rhys Plumlee turned on the JETS for this 67-yard TD 🚀 @UCF_Football pic.twitter.com/YbFUDB3GVy

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 12, 2022

His status for the Military Bowl is yet to be determined, but he’s a huge loss for a Knights team that boasts the nation’s 7th-ranked rush attack at 236 yards per game. Plumlee led the Knights with 841 yards rushing and 11 scores, picking up a nifty 5.8 yards per tote.

That will leave much of the run game primarily to the very capable duo of  RJ Harvey  (767 yards, 5 TD) and Isaiah Bowser (760 yards, 14 TD).

The losses don’t end there: backup QB Mikey Keane has transferred out, leaving third-stringer Thomas Castellanos the only possible pivot on game day.

Other significant pieces that have transferred out include receiver Ryan O’Keefe, who led the team with 73 catches and LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, who was third on the team in tackles. Starting corner Davonte Brown also transferred to the University of Miami.

On top of that, defensive coordinator Travis Williams left for a job with Arkansas, leaving the job to Addison Williams.

Blue Devils’ Betting Outlook

Duke enters the Military Bowl on their best stretch of play all season. They last played Nov 26, beating Wake Forest 34-31, giving them their fourth win in five games to close out the year.

They’re led by sophomore pivot Riley Leonard, who threw for 2,794 and 20 touchdowns on the season. He also ran for 636 yards and 11 scores. The Blue Devils churned out 33.1 points per game this year, good for 33rd in the nation. Just a few spots above them are UCF, who rank 26th at 34.4 points.

Riley Leonard is the most underrated QB in America pic.twitter.com/HD0l1xOzCK

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 26, 2022

Duke ranks 39th in rushing, pumping out 184.8 yards per contest, while sitting 60th in passing at 236 yards per game. Their balanced attack doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, either: they’ve had just 10 turnovers all season, leading to an impressive +14 in turnover margin.

Perhaps the biggest key  will be the Blue Devils’ solid run defense against UCF’s rush attack. Duke ranks 24th in the nation allowing just 121.1 yards per game. UCF has won all seven games this season when rushing for over 250 yards.

The Blue Devils’ highest rushing yards output against this season was 217.

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UCF vs Duke Prediction

Though they haven’t played in a bowl game since 2018, the Blue Devils have been a solid bet in the postseason, going 5-0 against the spread in their last five bowl games.

Even if Plumlee is able to go for UCF, there’s a lot of concern that he can’t be as effective as he was during the year, when healthy.

Losing key pieces is not a sustainable formula for success, but UCF still has a lot of defensive personnel that helped them to 78th in run defense and 73rd in passing defense.

Duke is tied for 11th in the nation in time of possession, averaging 32 minutes a game. UCF is in a cluster tied at 40th, at an even 30 minutes per contest.

Taking the Blue Devils’ less than powerful strength of schedule and compromised Knights’ roster, I think these teams settle in under that total in the Military Bowl.

The Pick:

• UNDER 62.5 points (-115); 1.5 units to win 1.31 units
• NCAAF Overall Record: 9-9 ATS, 1-0 ML, 1-3 o/u; -2.46 units