Quick Lane Bowl Odds and Picks – Prediction for New Mexico State vs Bowling Green

• New Mexico State and Bowling Green meet in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday, December 26
• Bowling Green is a 3.5-point favorite in the first meeting between the two programs
• Read below for New Mexico State vs Bowling Green odds, analysis and prediction

Bowling Green (6-6, Mid-American) is a 3.5-point favorite over New Mexico State in the Quick Lane Bowl at 2:30 pm ET Monday, December 26 at Ford Field in Detroit. The Falcons have won four of their last six and finished tied for second in the MAC East.

New Mexico State (6-6, independent) won its final two games to gain bowl eligibility for the first time since 2017. The Aggies, one of seven FBS independents, lost their first four games before their turnaround. They are 3-0-1 in four previous bowl games.

Let’s dive into the New Mexico State vs Bowling Green odds and find the best bet for the Quick Lane Bowl.

New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Dec. 22. Unlock the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code for Boxing Day.

Bowling Green, a 3.5-point favorite over New Mexico State, is 4-7-1 ATS and has failed to cover three of its last four. The Falcons are 0-3 ATS as a favorite, the most recent being a 13-9 victory over Western Michigan as a five-point favorite on Nov. 2. The Falcons have been over the total in five games.

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New Mexico State is 7-5 ATS and has covered five of its last seven. The Aggies are 6-6 against the total.

New Mexico State Rolling

The Aggies are appearing in their second bowl game since 1960 after receiving a waiver from the NCAA. They were unable to play their normal schedule because the Oct. 22 game against San Jose State was cancelled after the death of a Spartan player the day before. Two of the Aggies’ victories were against FCS teams, including a 65-3 over Valparaiso in a hastily arranged game Dec. 3. NCAA rules stipulate each team can count only one win against an FCS team. Thus, the waiver application.

Diego Pavia (@diegopavia02) with a career day for @NMStateFootball in their 49-14 win over Liberty:

🔥 339 total yards
🔥 3 rushing touchdowns
🔥 3 passing touchdowns

The NMSU QB had six touchdowns this season coming into the game 🤯

pic.twitter.com/FtWtXyNhs4

— College Football Network (@CFN365) November 26, 2022

Quarterback Diego Pavia scuffled early in the season against a schedule that included first-year coach Jerry Kill’s return to Minnesota and a trip to Wisconsin (combined losses by 104-7). Pavia lost time to freshman Gavin Frakes before catching fire lately. Pavia had 339 yards and six touchdowns — three passing, three rushing —  in a 49-14 victory at Liberty on Nov. 26 and passed for 323 yards and three touchdowns against Valparaiso. Pavia suffered a hamstring injury against Pavia is “about 90 percent,” Kill said.

The Aggies, who will join Conference USA next year, are averaging 52.5 points per game in their last four games, which also includes a 51-14 victory over FCS Lamar. Their only loss in the last six games was 45-14 at Missouri on Nov. 19.

Bowling Green Bowling Again

Quarterback Matt McDonald, who spent two years at Boston College, led the Falcons to their first bowl game since 2015 by throwing for 2,639 yards and 22 touchdowns with eight interceptions. McDonald missed a 45-14 loss to Mississippi State on Sept. 24 because of a hip pointer, and he had a rough game the last time out, throwing three interceptions in a 38-14 loss to Ohio U that prevented the Falcons from moving into a first-place tie in the MAC East.

𝙉𝙚𝙬𝙨 & 𝙉𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙨@mattcmcdonald4 has 11 passing touchdowns on third down, which ranks No. 4 in the nation. Only Sam Hartman (14, Wake Forest), C.J. Stroud (12, Ohio State) and Will Rogers (12, Mississippi State) have more.#QuickLaneBowlBits

🎟️: https://t.co/5hYU6sDjhc pic.twitter.com/451cgt7Js7

— BGSU Football (@BG_Football) December 13, 2022

Senior rush end Karl Brooks is the best player on either team. A first-team All-American by Pro Football Focus, Brooks entered the bowl season with 10 sacks, tied for seventh in the FBS with Alabama’s Will Anderson.  Brooks has 18 tackles for loss, ninth in the FBS, and his pass rush grade by PFF was second among all FBS players with at least 300 pass rushes.

The Falcons’ other numbers are less appealing. They rank 97th in the FBS in scoring offense (23.8 points per game) and are 116th in points given up (33.2).

New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Prediction

Some MAC trends: since 2019, the MAC is 8-9 SU and 10-6-1 ATS in bowl games. The league is 2-1 SU and ATS this season, covering twice as underdogs. MAC champion Toledo beat Liberty 21-19 but did not cover as a 3.5-point favorite.

This game marks a jump in levels for the Aggies, whose best win was over Liberty in late November. The Falcons beat Toledo.  What does it all mean? Take the hot team and the points.

• Pick: New Mexico State +3.5 (-110)
• Season CFB: 48-47 ATS