Alabama vs Indiana Prediction, Updated Spread & Best Bets – Rose Bowl CFP Quarterfinal

• Can Alabama win back-to-back CFP games?
• Indiana plays in its first Rose Bowl since 1968
• Continue reading for my Alabama vs Indiana prediction and best bets

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The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) and the Indiana Hoosiers (13-0) meet for the first time in program history in the Rose Bowl, the third College Football Playoff quarterfinal game. Alabama is coming off a first-round win at Oklahoma, while Indiana has not played since Dec. 6. The Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, will host the game at 4:00 PM ET on Jan. 1. ESPN will broadcast the game.

Continue reading for my Alabama vs Indiana prediction as well as my three best bets and the Rose Bowl odds.

Alabama vs Indiana Prediction

My Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Indiana 27, Alabama 20

Continuing the dream seasons of all dream seasons, I have Indiana winning by a touchdown to move to 14-0 on the season. I think the spread is on the money, and I have found a smidge of value on under 48.5.

Alabama vs Indiana Spread

Indiana is a sizable favorite in the Rose Bowl odds. Indiana bettors can take the Hoosiers at -7 on DraftKings for -112 odds or -245 on the moneyline at Fanatics. Alabama bettors can take the Crimson Tide at +7.5 on the spread at Caesars (-117 odds) or +215 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

The total is set between 47.5 and 48.5 depending on the book. Over bettors should use FanDuel’s line of over 47.5 at -115 odds. Under bettors should take BetMGM’s line of under 48.5 at -115 odds.

Odds as of January 1, 2025, at consensus College Football betting apps. Make sure you check out the best online sportsbook to bet on the Rose Bowl.

Best Bets

• Under 48.5 (-115, BetMGM)

As sturdy as the Indiana offense is, the defense is just as good, if not better. Indiana ranks fourth in the nation in scoring (41.9 points per game), but the defense is comically good: No.2 in FBS, allowing 10.8 points per game. Only one team (Penn State) has managed to score 16 offensive points against Indiana this season.

Indiana's post-snap coverage rotations against Oregon. This defense is the real deal. Bryant Haines has been as advertised and doing it without blue-chip talent pic.twitter.com/RsEJPUdKgp

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) December 30, 2025

The story is similar in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has a good offense, 33rd in points per game, but the defense has locked down, allowing 17.9 points per game, a top-15 mark in FBS. It might not be a Nick Saban-era defense, but the Tide have a rock-solid secondary and a formidable run defense. The only question is the pass rush, a unit that has been up-and-down in 2025.

• Ryan Williams, Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

The last month of games has not been particularly inspiring as Williams has just four catches for 63 yards in his last four games. However, the team is now for the video game cover athlete to return to being a top-five receiver in CFB. Williams has covered this comically low number eight times this season. Notably, he covered on just two catches in the SEC Title Game and three catches against LSU and Oklahoma (regular season).

Kalen DeBoer on Ryan Williams:

“He’s gonna have a game like he’s had at different times where he goes off and I’m just waiting for that moment because it’s gonna be awesome and I know it’s coming — sooner rather than later.” pic.twitter.com/LcROoiWzid

— Cover Crimson (@CoverCrimson) December 30, 2025

This bet could backfire as Williams might have a foot out of Tuscaloosa, but the upside and low number is tantalizing. If I had any more faith in Williams, I would be open to taking a ladder up to even 100 yards. After all, Indiana allowed Jeremiah Smith to go for 144 yards in its last game.

• Fernando Mendoza, Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-121)

The 2025 Heisman has surpassed this line eight times this season. Mendoza has six games with three or more touchdowns, five games with four or more touchdowns, and a pair of games with five touchdowns. In his first game since winning the Heisman, I expect Mendoza to toss two touchdowns as the Hoosiers advance.

Only three quarterbacks have hit this prop against Alabama: Beau Pribula, Gunner Stockton (three), and John Mateer. However, Stockton and Mateer has done so in the last two games. Given the line is only at 1.5, I feel comfortbale in taking the over. At 2.5, I would take the under.

Alabama vs Indiana History

This is the first matchup between Alabama and Indiana. Among Power 4 programs, it is hard to find two teams further apart in terms of prestige. Alabama has the most national championships (18 claimed, 16 recognized), the most bowl appearances (79), and the most weeks spent at No.1 in the AP Poll (141). Indiana has a all-time record of .429, zero national championships, and one week at No.1 in the AP Poll.

Last Five Rose Bowls

This is the 112th installment of the Rose Bowl, the first of which was played on New Year’s Day, 1902. It has been continually played since 1915-16, being hosted in Pasadena, CA, in every iteration besides 1941-42 and 2020-21.

This is Alabama’s ninth appearance in the Rose Bowl, the most among teams without a Big Ten or Pac-12 affiliation. Alabama has a 5-2-1 record in previous appearances, winning in January of 1926, 1931, 1935, 1946, and 2021. The Tide tied Stanford in 1927 and lost in 1938 and 2024. In its last appearance, Alabama fell in overtime to eventual champion Michigan.

Indiana has only made one Rose Bowl appearance, a 14-3 loss to USC, the eventual National Champions, back in January of 1968. Among the original 10 Big Ten teams (as of 1950), Indiana is now tied with Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue for fewest Rose Bowl appearances (two).