Alabama vs Oklahoma Preview, Spread & Prediction – CFP First Round

• Alabama and Oklahoma square off for the second time this season
• The Sooners defeated the Crimson Tide 23–21, in Tuscaloosa, on November 15.
• See our Alabama vs Oklahoma preview, spread and prediction – CFP First Round

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The first game in the College Football Playoffs features a rematch between the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners. These teams met a little over a month ago, when coach Brent Venables and his team stormed into Bryant-Denny Stadium and took down the then-No. 4 Tide, 23–21.

This time around, Oklahoma will be hosting. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday night, with ABC carrying the coverage.

A rematch of familiar foes in Norman! 🏈#RollTide or #BoomerSooner? #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/WhhQpjNAtW

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 8, 2025

Let’s dive into our Alabama vs Oklahoma preview, spread and prediction for the CFP first round.

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Alabama vs Oklahoma Preview

Can the Sooners really pull off two victories in one season against the Crimson Tide? I’m sure many of you are thinking, yeah – they’re a 1.5-point favorite; it wouldn’t be that unimaginable. In that sense, you’re right.

But if history has told us anything, it’s that Alabama doesn’t lose to the same opponent more than once in a season — at least not over the past 130 years, since the Birmingham Athletic Club accomplished that feat in 1893.

Oklahoma will look to be the first team to beat Alabama twice in the same season in over 130 years 😳 pic.twitter.com/MVaaKmttFo

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 17, 2025

Call me crazy, but I’d go as far as saying this Alabama team – and the program as a whole – has changed quite a bit over those 130 years. As a matter of fact, the teams and matchups have changed every single time they’ve faced an opponent for a second meeting because it’s college football and every season is unique.

This Bama team is different, with a different coach, quarterback, and defense in place. So while that stat is both impressive and fascinating, it doesn’t mean squat when it comes to what to expect in this upcoming meeting.

With that being said, for any team – in both the NFL and college football – it’s difficult to beat a respectable opponent twice in the same season. But perhaps the Sooners are the squad to do it.

Oklahoma Defense Leads the Way

You know the old saying, “defense wins championships.” Well, that motto applies to the foundation of Oklahoma’s team this season. The Sooners rank second in the nation in defensive success rate and seventh in EPA per play allowed.

That wasn’t the only game Bama struggled this season. In their opener, they were held to just 17 points at Florida State and lost by 14. The Seminoles went on to finish the year with a 5–7 record.

Sure, you could give Alabama the benefit of the doubt given it was the first game of the season, but we then saw them slip up against Oklahoma at home and nearly fall victim on the road against Auburn, barely holding on for a 27–20 win. It took a fourth-and-goal situation for the Crimson Tide to seal that game-winning touchdown.

Alabama clearly wasn’t playing its best football, and that carried over into the SEC Championship Game, where it was embarrassed by Georgia, 28–7.

Top Plays 🎥 | Defense

Let us know your favorite, Sooner Nation 😤#BoomerSooner pic.twitter.com/0lkx7yPGq4

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) December 14, 2025

In addition, Alabama received some bad news regarding defensive end LT Overton, who won’t play in this game due to an illness. He was also absent for the conference championship.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

The good news for Alabama is that the Sooners’ offense has been mediocre, as they sit 112th in success rate and 93rd in EPA per play. Bama’s defense sits 24th in success rate and 32nd in EPA per play allowed.

In fact, despite losing 23–21 at home, Alabama largely outplayed Oklahoma in their first meeting. The Tide outgained the Sooners 406–212 in total yards, recorded 23 first downs compared to Oklahoma’s 12, and threw for 326 yards while limiting the Sooners to just 138 through the air.

Kalen DeBoer’s team also controlled the time of possession, holding the ball for 34:28 and limiting Oklahoma to 25:32.

Had the Crimson Tide not turned the ball over three times, we may be looking at this game through a completely different lens.

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Alabama vs Oklahoma Spread

Oddsmakers opened the Alabama vs Oklahoma spread with Alabama as a slight 1.5-point favorite. Fast forward to now, and the favored team has flipped.

The line still sits at 1.5 points, but now it’s Oklahoma that is favored at home. The total is set at 41 points across most sportsbooks, reflecting expectations for a defensive battle in this CFP First Round rematch.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday, December 18 at 9:00 pm ET. Check out the best college football betting apps for the latest Alabama vs Oklahoma odds.

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Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction

In a neutral-site setting, I’d be tempted to take Alabama +1.5 on the spread for my prediction. However, having the Sooner faithful in full force should be a major factor in this matchup.

There’s also the reality that this Bama team may simply be flawed and vulnerable, which they’ve shown us in several instances this year. That’s not to say Oklahoma is definitively the better team, but the Sooners’ dominant defense makes a significant difference.

Additionally, Alabama may have faced some minor distractions leading into this game, with rumors circulating about Kalen DeBoer being floated as a candidate for the Michigan head coaching job. I don’t think that will play a major role, but in a high-stakes game, even small factors like that can matter.

Michael Wilbon seems pretty convinced Kalen DeBoer is headed to Ann Arbor 😳

"The coach at Alabama is going to have a job-on-the-line situation in 24 hours, and then headed to Michigan once he loses. And then Alabama's looking. Then what are you going to say?" pic.twitter.com/2Gh9NjKmj9

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) December 18, 2025

Oklahoma will bring constant pressure on Ty Simpson and force him into uncomfortable situations, much like the first meeting. The Sooners’ defense should wreak havoc all game long and once again prove to be the key ingredient, as it has so often this season.

All Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer needs to do is avoid turning the ball over, as he did in Tuscaloosa, where he completed 15 of 23 passes for 138 yards.

Whichever offense commits the first crucial mistake will likely hand the other team the victory, and I believe there’s a greater chance of that occurring with Alabama’s offense than Oklahoma’s.

• Best Bet: Oklahoma Moneyline (-114)