Arizona vs SMU Prediction, Spread & Best Holiday Bowl Bets (Jan. 2)

• SMU is a 1.5-point favorite over Arizona in the Holiday Bowl tonight
• The Wildcats rank third on defense in EPA / pass
• See my Arizona vs SMU prediction, plus the latest spread and my best Holiday Bowl Bets for Jan. 2

Bowl season is winding down, leaving us with only a handful of games left to sweat. One of those takes place tonight in California, as Arizona (9-3) takes on SMU (8-4).

The Wildcats closed the season on a five-game winning streak, but online sportsbooks are expecting that run to end at the hands of the Mustangs. SMU is currently a small favorite in the college football odds, after opening as an underdog.

The action is set for 8 pm ET from Snapdragon Stadium, in San Diego, CA, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Arizona vs SMU prediction, plus the latest spread and my best Holiday Bowl Bets for January 2nd.

Arizona vs SMU Prediction

• Under 53.5 (-122 at BetRivers)

This game is a coin flip in terms of outcome, and I don’t see much value on either side of the spread. The total on the other hand is a different story. I’m predicting a lower scoring game than the market, in large part due to how well the Wildcats defense matches up with the Mustangs offense.

Arizona enters play featuring one of the best pass defenses in the country. They rank third in EPA/pass, fifth in yards allowed per pass, and sixth in opponent completion percentage. Only two programs in the nation force more interceptions, while their 2.4 takeaways per game is the second highest mark in college football.

Arizona Pass Defense

That’s a problem for SMU, who live and die by the pass. The Mustangs throw the ball at a top-19 clip, averaging over 36 attempts per game. It’s possible they find success through the air tonight, but the odds aren’t likely. Each of the last eight quarterbacks to face the Wildcats have fallen short of 200 yards. That list includes Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson, who was third in the nation in passing yards this season, along with three QB’s from top-25 ranked programs.

Shutting down the Mustangs passing attack takes on greater significance, because they struggle to run the ball. SMU has just a 44% rushing success rate, which ranks in the bottom half of the FBS.

As for the Arizona offense, it’s certainly no juggernaut. They rank 59th in total offense, and 68th in yards per play. They won’t find much success on the ground versus the Mustangs’ top-12 run defense, while Noah Fifita and the Wildcats’ passing attack ranks 50th or worse in completion percentage, yards per attempt and sack percentage.

To make matters worse, the Wildcats are dealing with offensive line issues. They’re losing a starting guard in the college football opt outs tracker, while their right tackle is injured.

SMU, meanwhile, isn’t dealing with significant opt outs other than safety Isaiah Nwokobia, but you have to wonder about their motivation factor. This was a team that was on the cusp of playing for a shot in the CFP bracket, only to lose as 13.5-point favorites in the final week. I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out flat, and while I wouldn’t base my entire wager around that, I am taking it into consideration.

Arizona vs SMU Spread

I’m betting under 53.5 points at BetRivers, as they are one of the few books that are still offering a total that high. Most commercial books like DraftKings have gone down to 52.5, while some like Bet365 have lowered the total all the way to 51.5.

As for the Arizona vs SMU spread, the Mustangs are currently favored by 1 or 1.5 points depending on where you bet. If you like Arizona to pull off the upset, FanDuel has the lowest odds on them win outright at -104.

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Odds as of Jan 2 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends,

Arizona vs SMU Best Holiday Bowl Bets

• Kevin Jennings Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Caesars)

My Arizona vs SMU best Holiday Bowl bets not only features the game total under, but also under 243.5 passing yards for the Mustangs Kevin Jennings. It’s a mark that no opposing QB has cleared versus the Wildcats this season, with Iowa State’s Rocco Becht being the lone pivot to even crack the 200-yard mark.