Arkansas State vs South Alabama Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Tuesday

• South Alabama hosts Arkansas State in Mobile, Alabama
• The Jaguars hope to snap their four-game losing streak against the Red Wolves
• See our Arkansas State vs South Alabama Picks, Predictions and Best Bets for Tuesday

---

It’s been a disappointing season for both Arkansas State and South Alabama. The Red Wolves enter this matchup at 2-4, though they’re coming off a narrow 31-30 win over Texas State. Meanwhile, the Jaguars sit at 1-5 and are riding a four-game losing streak, most recently falling in overtime at Troy, 31-24.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET, at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. ESPN2 will be carrying tonight’s coverage. 

Let’s take a look at our Arkansas State vs South Alabama picks, predictions and best bets for Tuesday. 

Arkansas State vs South Alabama Picks & Predictions

• Game Winner Prediction: South Alabama
• Spread Pick: South Alabama -7.5

Despite their 1-5 record, the Jaguars have been a competitive group. They’re coming off a 31-24 overtime loss at Troy last week, fell just short against Tulane in a 33-31 thriller in Week 2, and kept things respectable versus Auburn in a 31-15 defeat. Their lone victory came in the season opener against Morgan State, which they won comfortably, 38-21.

Oddsmakers opened South Alabama as a 6.5-point favorite, but that line has since moved to -7.5. The total opened at 57.5 and remains there at several sportsbooks, though some have ticked it up slightly to 58.5.

The line movement toward the home team is justified. While both defenses have struggled, South Alabama holds a clear edge on the ground.

Going up on a Tuesday‼️
It’s Game Day from Howlabama. #WolvesUp🐺 I #PoundTheRock🪨🔨 pic.twitter.com/mrZT3WGXnf

— Arkansas State Football (@AStateFB) October 14, 2025

The Jaguars feature one of the more run-heavy attacks in the country, averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. That plays directly into a major weakness for Arkansas State, which is surrendering the sixth-most rushing yards per game in the FBS and allowing 5.7 yards per carry.

They also give up 7.1 yards per play and struggle to generate consistent pressure, a combination that’s been disastrous for the Red Wolves’ defense. Facing a hungry and desperate South Alabama team that’s shown flashes of potential this season could spell more trouble.

Expect the Jaguars to control this matchup through their ground game on Tuesday night. Lead running back Kentrel Bullock is set up for a big performance – he’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 496 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the year.

South Alabama quarterback Bishop Davenport can also create plays with his legs, having scrambled 62 times for 187 yards and three touchdowns this season. He won’t need to rely heavily on the passing game to move the offense, as that hasn’t been a focal point for the Jaguars.

𝗗𝗔𝗩𝗘𝗡𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧 𝗗𝗔𝗦𝗛.@SouthAlabamaFB grabs its first lead of the game, 17-14, on a 56-yard touchdown run by quarterback Bishop Davenport in the third quarter. ☀️🏈 pic.twitter.com/xQz1ckpMwc

— Sun Belt Football (@SunBeltFB) October 5, 2025

Davenport has surpassed 200 passing yards just once this year – a Week 2 matchup against Tulane, where he completed 17 of 24 passes for 231 yards.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama Best Bets

• Best Bet: Bishop Davenport Under 196.5 Passing Yards (-114)

From a betting perspective, the clearest angle centers on the game’s most glaring mismatch – Arkansas State’s run defense.

The Red Wolves are allowing 5.7 yards per carry and rank 115th nationally in defensive rush success rate allowed. While South Alabama running back Kentrel Bullock is set up for another strong performance, the market has already priced that in, leaving little value on his props.

Instead, the better play is to fade Bishop Davenport’s passing yards. Given the expected game script, he won’t need to throw often, making the under 196.5 passing yards a strong play.

Arkansas State vs South Alabama Head-to-Head

South Alabama has dominated this series recently, winning six of the last eight meetings. More significantly, the Jaguars won four straight in Mobile before last year’s 18-16 road loss in Jonesboro snapped that home streak.

Last year’s loss in Jonesboro notwithstanding, South Alabama has owned Arkansas State – particularly at Hancock Whitney Stadium. In fact, the last time the Jaguars lost five straight games was in 2019, a skid they ended with a 34-30 victory over the Red Wolves.

Key Betting Trends:

• Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings
• Arkansas State is 2-3 ATS in the last five despite losing four outright
• South Alabama has won four straight at home in this series (2017-2023)

Tonight marks Arkansas State’s first trip back to Mobile since their 21-14 loss in 2023. South Alabama will be looking to avenge last year’s narrow 18-16 defeat in Jonesboro and reclaim their home dominance in this series.

---

More Tuesday Night CFB Picks:

• New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction, Picks & Spread for Tuesday Night Football
• FIU vs Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick for Tuesday CFB