Big Ten Championship Prediction: Ohio State vs Indiana Picks & Updated Line

• The winner of Ohio State vs Indiana gets the No.1 seed in the CFP
• Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza battle to win the Heisman
• Continue reading for my Ohio State vs Indiana picks and Big Ten Championship Game prediction

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The final game before the CFP announcement is one of the best games of recent vintage as the No.2 Indiana Hoosiers and No.1 Ohio State Buckeyes put their 12-0 records on the line to win the Big Ten. Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will play host to the 8:00 PM ET kickoff on Saturday, Dec. 6. FOX will broadcast the game.

Keep reading for my Ohio State vs Indiana prediction and my Ohio State vs Indiana picks. I also provided the line for the Big Ten Title Game.

Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction for Big Ten Championship Game

• Ohio State 24, Indiana 17

In a lower-scoring-than-expected game, I am picking the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten for the first time since 2020. With a win, Ohio State will lock up the No.1 seed in the CFP for the first time. In a close loss, I expect Indiana to remain as the No.2 seed unless Georgia beats Alabama by a massive margin.

Based on this Big Ten Championship prediction, I’ve made two Ohio State vs Indiana picks that I break down in the sections below.

Ohio State Buckeyes Analysis

Sitting at 12-0, the Buckeyes are four wins away from the school’s seventh perfect (no losses, no ties) season. Not only are the Buckeyes four wins away from an unprecedented 16-0 season, they are four wins away from winning back-to-back national championships for the first time in school history. Can the Buckeyes get it done?

Julian Sayin is the most accurate quarterback in college football. He has a ridiculous 78.9% completion rate and a 184.9 passing efficiency, topping the country in both marks. He has a healthy 30 touchdowns to just five interceptions. With a winning performance against Indiana, Sayin could be the first Buckeye to win the Heisman since Troy Smith in 2006.

After a midseason slide, Bo Jackson is back in the saddle as the go-to option in the Ohio State rushing attack. The freshman has six 100-yard rushing games, including 110 or more yards in three straight games. He should surpass 1,000 yards on the season Saturday night.

Bo Jackson is going to be a major problem for Ohio State. pic.twitter.com/iawG75mWqs

— Mekka Don (@MekkaDonMusic) November 9, 2025

There is a reasonable argument to be made that Ohio State has the best two receivers in the country: Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Smith is a shoo-in to be a top-10 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, and he could win the Biletnikoff this season. Tate is a likely top-20 pick in the upcoming draft, and he should eclipse 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns at some point in OSU’s playoff run.

Ohio State is loaded with future NFL studs, including potential No.1 pick Arvell Reese, elite safety Caleb Downs, and first-round linebacker Sonny Styles.

However, the name I am highlighting today is interior defender Kayden McDonald. A potential first-round pick in his own right, McDonald is a tree stump of a man who simply consumes running plays. He occasionally splashes as a pass rusher (3.0 sacks), but he is a solo act in terms of shutting down the opposition ground game.

The Indiana Hoosiers

In its first 125 seasons, Indiana had zero 10-win seasons. Last season, Indiana won 11 games. This season, Indiana is up to 12 wins with this game and a whole CFP to go. Curt Cignetti is a preposterous 23-2 in Bloomington, and Indiana is a mortal lock to get a bye in the CFP. With a win, Indiana would become the No.1 team in the country for the first time in program history.

A likely No.1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza is one game away from becoming Indiana’s first Heisman recipient. Mendzona leads the county with 32 passing touchdowns, and he has added six rushing touchdowns. He also tops the Big Ten with 9.4 yards per pass. He has a solid shot to surpass 3,000 passing yards tonight (needing 242).

Indiana has a split backfield with Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. Hemby leads the team in rushes and yards while Black has the edge in efficiency and leads the team with seven rushing touchdowns. Four different Hoosiers have at least six rushing touchdowns.

The Indiana receiving game also has one of the best duos in the country. The top option is Elijah Surratt who managed to tally 48 catches for 650 yards and a conference-leading 11 touchdowns despite missing two games.

Elijah Sarratt 8 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD vs Oregon Ducks Today. https://t.co/UOATc2cbLE pic.twitter.com/h4zZ8HdbLK

— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) October 12, 2025

Omar Cooper also has 11 touchdowns, and his production is at the same rate as Surratt’s with two extra games of volume: 58 catches and 804 yards.

Usually, I point out the exceptional statistical performers, but the man of the hour is cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. In his prep career, Ponds was teammates with Jeremiah Smith. Despite a size mismatch, Ponds has been the best corner in the sport at stopping Smith, holding him to minimal production in last season’s Ohio State vs Indiana game. Is he up to the challenge one more time?

Ohio State vs Indiana Picks for Big Ten Title Game

• Ohio State -3.5

Here is why I am backing Ohio State -3.5 in the Big Ten Title Game:

• Ohio State is a resounding 10-1-1 ATS this season. This is all the more impressive considering Ohio State has been favored by 9.5 or more in 11 of 12 games. The only time the Buckeyes failed to cover was a 24-point win over Purdue (-29.5). They also pushed as 28-point favorites against Ohio.
• Despite being undefeated, Indiana has had a much more difficult time covering. The Hoosiers are 7-5 ATS, playing closer than expected games against Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin in conference play.

• Under 47.5

Here is why I am taking Under 47.5 today:

• This is a battle of the No.1 and No.2 scoring defenses in college football. Ohio State has allowed a ridiculously low 7.8 points per game. Indiana is a tick behind, allowing 10.9 points per game. Despite both teams having excellent offenses, this should be a defensive battle.
• Usually, having quality ground games helps produce lower-scoring games, but I anticipate both teams looking to throw the ball on high-percentage opportunities. Both Julian Sayin (78.9%) and Fernando Mendoza (72.0%) complete over 70% of their passes. These quick completions will serve the same purpose as a ground game as both teams feature top-flight run defenses.

Ohio State vs Indiana Odds

Ohio State is a neutral-site favorite in Indianapolis, being listed as a 3.5-point favorite on Underdog (-114 odds). Ohio State bettors can get the Buckeyes for -188 on the moneyline at FanDuel. On the Indiana side, bettors can take the Hoosiers at +4.5 (-115 odds on BetMGM) or +165 on the moneyline, also at BetMGM.

The total is set between 46.5 and 47.5 points. Over bettors can bet over 46.5 on BetRivers for -114 odds. Under bettors can bet under 47.5 on FanDuel for -110 odds.

Odds as of Dec. 6 at top-rated college football betting apps. Check out our Indiana vs Ohio State Player Props for additional best bets and picks for tonight’s showdown.

Ohio State vs Indiana, Recent History

Domination does not do this series justice. Ohio State has historically annihilated Indiana, posting an 80-12-5 record along with a vacated win in 2010. Indiana has not beaten Ohio State since 1988, with the sides tying in 1990 and Ohio State vacating its win in 2010. Consider Indiana’s +4.5 spread today; the Hoosiers have covered that mark once since 1991, a three-point loss in 2012.

Last season, Ohio State went on a 31-0 run to bury Indiana in a 38-15 win. After a scoreless first quarter, Ohio State scored at least 10 points in each of the final three quarters to bludgeon Indiana. Will Howard accounted for three touchdowns in the win. On the Indiana side, Ty Son Lawton scored both of the Hoosiers’ touchdowns.

Big Ten History for Ohio State vs Indiana

Ohio State in Big Ten Title Games

This is Ohio State’s seventh appearance in the Big Ten Title Game. Ohio State lost its first trip back in 2013, but the Buckeyes won in 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 to get to a 5-1 record. With this appearance, the Buckeyes broke a tie with Wisconsin for the most appearances in conference history.

In 2020, Ohio State held on to beat a plucky Northwestern team. Future third-round pick Trey Sermon scored two touchdowns for Ohio State as the Buckeyes won 22-10 to enter the CFP undefeated.

Ohio State has been in the Big Ten since 1912, winning 39 conference titles. With a win on Saturday, Ohio State would win its second conference title of the decade, a feat the Buckeyes have accomplished in every decade since the 1910s besides the 1920s.

Indiana in Big Ten Title Games

This is Indiana’s first appearance in the Big Ten Title Game. With a win, Indiana would win just its third Big Ten title, following 1945 and 1967.