Boise State vs Notre Dame Predictions, Picks & Odds (Saturday, Oct. 4)

• It’s the first-ever meeting between Notre Dame and Boise State today at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
• The spread for this contest has gone up almost a full touchdown in favor of the Irish, who enter ranked No. 21 in the nation.
• I’ve got your Boise State vs Notre Dame predictions and picks, plus a special look at the Broncos and Irish odds

No. 21 Notre Dame (2-2; 2-2 ATS) takes on West Coast power Boise State (3-1; 3-1 ATS) at Notre Dame Stadium Saturday.

The Irish are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the spread, but have a defense that has struggled this season.

Is the 21-point spread too much to give the Irish? Check out my Boise State vs Notre Dame prediction and pick, plus insights.

Boise State vs Notre Dame Prediction

The fact that the spread has swung so much in favor of the Irish is a tell, but just what kind exactly? Are bettors overrating Notre Dame, or seriously underrating Boise State?

Notre Dame lost to Miami and Texas A&M to open the season, and all their problems seem to be on defense. It’s a defense that ranks 121st against the pass (out of 136 teams) and 98th in scoring. Did the defense look better in wins over Purdue and Arkansas? Yes. But neither Purdue or Arkansas are world-beaters.

Notre Dame’s pass defense isn’t just bad for their standards—it’s 121st out of 136 teams. When you’re giving up nearly 270 yards passing against Purdue and Arkansas, what happens when you face a quarterback like Madsen who actually protects the football? He’s got a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio for a reason.

Boise State got wacked in its opener by South Florida. Remember, they were ranked to start the season. They’ve since rebounded with three wins over some cupcakes. This will be the Broncos’ first trip to Notre Dame.

There’s a motivation factor you can’t ignore here. The Broncos have been playing with a chip on their shoulder, covering in all three games since the early loss. Meanwhile, Notre Dame just demolished Arkansas so badly the Razorbacks fired their coach immediately after. It’s a classic letdown spot for the Irish.

Boise State vs Notre Dame Pick

• Boise State +21 (-110 at BetMGM)

• Over 62.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

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I’m loving Boise State getting this many points. If the oddsmakers are going to forgive Notre Dame for its first two losses, then why aren’t we giving Boise State the same consideration?

The Broncos have an experienced quarterback in Maddux Madsen, who has thrown for 1,129 yards and nine touchdowns. Boise State has a top receiver in Latrell Caples and a three-headed running attack.

I bring all that up because I think Notre Dame is weak on defense. Offensively though, the Irish have it going on. Jeremiyah Love can still get back in the Heisman Trophy race with a good season. New starting QB CJ Carr has also thrown for nine touchdowns through his first four starts.

Here’s a stat that should terrify Notre Dame: Boise State has scored on 100% of their red zone trips this season. Every. Single. Time. Against a defense that already can’t stop anyone, those red zone possessions turn into automatic touchdowns instead of field goals. That adds up fast when you’re getting three touchdowns.

Anyway you look at it, this game still screams over. Notre Dame may win, but I don’t think they will stop Boise State that much. I’m thinking 42-31 in favor of the Irish.

Boise State vs Notre Dame Odds

Odds as of Oct. 4 from BetMGM. Join the show at BetMGM with our BetMGM bonus code.

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The point spread opened at 15.5 and has now gone up almost a touchdown. The Irish are 21-point favorites at BetMGM with the total a high 62.5.

Speaking of totals, the Irish have hit the over six times in a row. Boise State has hit the over in its last three games.

Boise State is 5-5 in its last 10 games against the spread. After a season-opening loss to South Florida, the Broncos have won three in a row. Notre Dame is coming off a 56-13 beatdown of Arkansas, that was so lopsided that the Hogs fired their coach after the game.

Notre Dame has covered the spread in its last seven games against unranked teams and has won eight in a row over unranked teams.

Checking out the moneyline, the best moneyline value is +900 at Caesars for Boise State; you can get Notre Dame -1400 at Bet365.