Cal vs Oregon State Prediction, Pick & Odds for Saturday Night Football

• The California Golden Bears are 1-point road favorites in Week 1 College Football action vs the Oregon State Beavers
• True freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele makes his first career start for Cal
• Read below for Cal vs Oregon State prediction, pick and odds for Saturday Night football

It’s Pac-12 After Dark nostalgia when the California Golden Bears visit the Oregon State Beavers for Saturday night’s late-window special.

The college football odds have shifted dramatically throughout the week, with sharp money flipping this line from Oregon State -2.5 to Cal -1.

Kickoff is set for 10:30pm ET from Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

See below for the latest odds, preview and my betting prediction for this one.

Cal vs Oregon State Odds

The Bears opened as underdogs, but sharp action has driven them to 1-point road favorites. Both teams sit at -110 on the moneyline, while the total has dipped from 50 to 48.5 points.

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Odds as of August 30 at 5 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best BetMGM promo code before placing a bet on Saturday night CFB.

Bears Turn to True Freshman Under Center

California enters Week 1 with massive roster turnover after losing 37 players to the transfer portal. Gone are quarterback Fernando Mendoza (Indiana), running back Jaydn Ott (Oklahoma), and tight end Jack Endries (Texas).

True freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele beat out Ohio State transfer Devin Brown for the starting job. The 6-foot-3 southpaw was the No. 6 QB recruit nationally but faces a brutal first test behind an entirely rebuilt offensive line.

The Bears allowed the third-most tackles for loss in FBS last season and had some of the worst pass protection grades. All five offensive line spots feature new starters, with three coming via the transfer portal.

Beavers Banking on Murphy’s Experience

Oregon State brings back key offensive pieces, including running back Anthony Hankerson (1,082 yards, 15 TDs) and receiver Trent Walker (81 catches, 901 yards). But the big addition is Duke transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy.

Murphy threw for 2,933 yards and 26 touchdowns last season, ranking 13th nationally in TD passes. His final pass at Duke was a 39-yard game-winner against Wake Forest.

The Beavers’ defense struggled mightily last year, ranking 110th in rush defense and 100th in points allowed. They managed just seven sacks all season and allowed 4.53 yards per carry.

First-year head coach Trent Bray has been adamant about moving past last year’s 44-7 loss to Cal. That embarrassment still stings, but this is a completely different matchup with both rosters overhauled.

Cal vs Oregon State Prediction

• Pick: California ML (-110 at BetMGM)

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The line movement tells the story here. Sharp money has backed Cal all week, flipping this spread from Oregon State -2.5 to Cal -1. When the market moves this drastically, it’s usually worth following.

Justin Wilcox’s defense should keep Cal in this game. The Bears were a top-50 unit in both run defense and pass rush grades last year, and linebacker Harrison Taggart (BYU transfer) adds immediate impact.

Yes, starting a true freshman quarterback on the road is indeed a risk. But Oregon State’s defense was atrocious last year and lost significant talent. If Sagapolutele can avoid major mistakes, Cal’s defense should be able to control this game.

I also like the under 48.5. Both teams have questions at quarterback and will likely lean on their ground games. Defense typically travels well, and this has all the makings of a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.