CFP Round 1 Picks: A.I. Predictions for All 4 Games (Dec. 19-20)

• Our A.I. has generated its best picks for the College Football Playoff first round
• Four games across Friday and Saturday will determine which teams advance to face the top seeds
• See the A.I.’s CFP Round 1 picks and predictions for December 19-20

The College Football Playoff first round kicks off Friday with four games that will determine the final 8 in the CFP Bracket. Higher seeds once again host on their home turf in this expanded 12-team format.

Our A.I. model had a rough championship weekend on spreads, going just 1-4 as Indiana and Duke shocked everyone. The Over/under bets were money, though. The model picked four Unders correctly as defense dominated the biggest games.

I’ve asked SportRadar’s internal A.I. to break down this weekend’s CFP first-round matchups. Below you’ll find picks for all four games, including Alabama vs Oklahoma, Miami vs Texas A&M, Tulane vs Ole Miss, and James Madison vs Oregon.

CFP Round 1 Picks – December 19-20

A.I. picks and odds as of Dec. 17. New customers can check out the best college football betting apps and claim bonuses to bet on the College Football Playoff.

Alabama vs Oklahoma – CFP First Round Pick

Friday night’s opener brings a massive SEC showdown to Norman, and the A.I. likes Alabama as a short underdog. The Crimson Tide enters with superior offensive numbers, averaging 31.2 points per game compared to Oklahoma’s 26.4.

But recent history has favored the Sooners. Oklahoma leads the all-time series 10-4 and defeated Alabama 23-21 during the regular season. The Sooners have an excellent defense, allowing only 13.9 points per game, compared to Alabama’s 17.4.

The A.I. points to Alabama’s turnover differential as the deciding factor. The Crimson Tide sit at +6 while Oklahoma struggles at -3. In playoff-intensity games, those extra possessions typically translate to 10-14 additional points.

Alabama’s third-down efficiency also stands out at 44.2% compared to Oklahoma’s 38.6%. The model believes these sustained drives give Alabama enough firepower to stay within the number, even on the road.

For the total, both offenses have the weapons to push past 40.5. Alabama hit 40+ points in 11 of 13 games this season, while their last five matchups averaged 42.2 combined points.

Miami vs Texas A&M – CFP Round 1 Pick

The betting market is split in an interesting way for this noon kickoff. Sharp money has backed Miami with 63.54% of spread handle, despite 88.8% of moneyline support going to Texas A&M. The model sides with the professionals here.

Miami brings an elite defense to College Station, allowing just 13.8 points per game while scoring 34.1 themselves. The Hurricanes’ operational metrics give them the edge in efficiency categories as well.

The Hurricanes convert 47.9% of third downs and score in the red zone at a 92.3% clip. Those sustained drives create constant pressure throughout four quarters.

The turnover numbers make the case for Miami. The Hurricanes sit at +9 compared to Texas A&M’s troublesome -8 mark. That 17-possession swing over the season gets magnified in road playoff environments where execution matters most.

The A.I. likes the under despite Texas A&M averaging 36.3 points per game. Miami’s elite defense allows just 13.8 points per game and held opponents to 10.3 over their last three contests. The Hurricanes’ ball-control approach should dictate tempo and limit total possessions.

The model sees value in taking the points with a Miami team that takes care of the football against an Aggies squad prone to mistakes.

Tulane vs Ole Miss – CFP Round One Pick

Ole Miss owns Tulane historically, leading the all-time series 12-0. The betting market reflects this dominance, with a staggering 97.73% of moneyline handle backing the Rebels. When professional money backs a team this heavily, it typically signals a mismatch.

The Rebels bring overwhelming firepower to this matchup, averaging 37.3 points and 498.1 yards per game. Their 46.0% third-down conversion rate creates sustained drives, while 86.2% red-zone efficiency ensures scoring chances become points.

Ole Miss is rolling right now, averaging 40.3 points over their last three games. Tulane’s defense allows 375.5 yards per game, the worst mark among all teams in this round.

The A.I. believes Ole Miss has the depth and home-field advantage to pull away in the second half. Both teams’ red-zone efficiency rates support the over as well, with their combined 65.7 points per game average providing a substantial cushion above 56.5.

This game should be a track meet, with defensive stops expected to be hard to come by throughout 60 minutes.

James Madison vs Oregon – CFP Round 1 Pick

Saturday’s nightcap features Oregon as massive home favorites, and the A.I. backs the Ducks to cover. Oregon’s statistical dominance justifies laying 20.5 points at Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks lead all playoff teams with 48.6% third-down conversions while averaging 38.2 points per game. This sustained offensive efficiency creates multiple scoring opportunities that accumulate into decisive margins.

Oregon’s turnover differential sits at +7 compared to James Madison’s -2. In a hostile environment like Autzen, those extra possessions add up fast. Short fields throughout the contest should help Oregon pull away.

Both teams have six wins by 20+ points this season, showing they know how to blow out inferior opponents. “The talent gap between a Big Ten power and a Sun Belt squad should show up on the scoreboard.

The model believes the Over offers excellent value considering both offenses. Oregon and James Madison combine for 75.5 points per game, providing a substantial cushion above the 47.5 total. Both teams excel in red-zone situations and should push this number higher.