Chambliss Ruling: Impact on Ole Miss National Championship, Heisman Odds & Win Totals

• A Mississippi judge granted Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss a sixth year of eligibility on February 12, overruling the NCAA’s denial
• Chambliss went from unlisted to the No. 2 Heisman favorite at +650 in less than a week
• Keep reading for how the ruling impacts national championship odds, Heisman futures, and SEC win totals

A courtroom in rural Mississippi just shook up the college football betting market. Lafayette County Chancery Court Judge Robert Whitwell granted Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss a preliminary injunction last week, clearing him for a sixth year of eligibility, and online sportsbooks wasted no time adjusting their boards.

The NCAA denied Chambliss’s medical redshirt waiver three separate times. Judge Whitwell wasn’t having it, calling the NCAA’s handling of the case “disrespectful and almost ludicrous.” He ruled they flat-out ignored medical evidence and acted in bad faith.

The ruling doesn’t rewrite the NCAA’s rules by any means, but the betting impact was felt right away.

How Ruling Moved National Championship Odds

Every major book tightened Ole Miss’s national championship odds in the days after the ruling. FanDuel chopped the Rebels from +4500 all the way down to +3000, and BetMGM and DraftKings both went from +4000 to +3500.

The handle at BetMGM was especially lopsided — Ole Miss pulled in 48% of all national championship bets and 90% of the money wagered. One bettor dropped a $5,000 ticket on the Rebels at +3500.

Ole Miss National Championship Odds Movement

Even with all that action, Ole Miss is still very much a longshot at around 14th on the board. Texas (+700), Georgia (+1100), LSU (+1500), Bama (+1500), and A&M (+1500) are all well ahead of them in the pecking order.

But take Chambliss off this roster, and you’re looking at a borderline top-15 team with a one-start quarterback. Put him back under center, and the Rebels have a legit path to the playoff. That’s how big the gap is.

Chambliss Enters Heisman Odds

The Heisman odds saw the biggest swing of any market. Chambliss wasn’t on anybody’s board before the ruling, and five days later, he was sitting at +650 as the No. 2 favorite behind only Arch Manning (+550).

Kalshi’s prediction market took it a step further, listing Chambliss as their outright No. 1 Heisman pick at 16%, ahead of Manning (15%) and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr (13%).

2026 Heisman Trophy Odds

BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel haven’t put him on their boards yet — they’re waiting to see if the NCAA appeals. But if the injunction holds, there’s no way he stays unlisted for long.

The production is there to back it up. Chambliss threw for 3,937 yards and 22 touchdowns last year with only 3 picks, and added 527 rushing yards and 8 more scores on the ground. He finished eighth in Heisman voting and earned SEC Newcomer of the Year. Another year in the system should only help those numbers.

Projected Ole Miss and SEC Win Totals

Early projections have the Rebels’ win total around 9.5, and getting Chambliss back only bolsters the case for the over. Kewan Lacy returns too after rushing for 1,567 yards and 23 touchdowns, and Ole Miss landed the No. 2 transfer portal class in the country on top of that.

Projected SEC Win Totals (2026)

Losing Kiffin to LSU stings, no question, and he took some guys with him. But Pete Golding walks into a pretty loaded situation. This team put up 489.7 yards per game in 2025, which was second-best nationally.

Having a quarterback who already ran this offense and made a playoff run goes a long way toward smoothing out the coaching transition.

Worth noting too — Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar has a similar eligibility case pending right now. Aguilar led the SEC in passing yards per game last season with 3,565 yards and 24 touchdowns, and legal analysts give him roughly a 70% chance of getting cleared.

If Aguilar wins, the books will be adjusting all over again. Courts are shaping college football rosters now just as much as the portal, and the college football odds are following right behind.

• Best Bet: Ole Miss Over 9.5 Wins