Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech Predictions, Picks & Spread (Independence Bowl)

• Louisiana Tech is a 9.5-point favorite against Coastal Carolina in the Independence Bowl.
• Bettors are expecting a low-scoring affair, favoring the Under 51.5.
• Coastal Carolina fired head coach Tim Beck on Nov. 30.

Louisiana Tech is a heavy favorite against Coastal Carolina in the Independence Bowl. Kickoff is 2 pm, ET, on Dec. 30 (ESPN).

From a betting perspective, the primary storyline revolves around Louisiana Tech’s significant statistical edges, particularly their turnover creation and more efficient offensive attack.

Independence Bowl Betting Predictions: Expert Picks & Analysis

The betting markets have painted a clear picture, installing Louisiana Tech as substantial favorites across all major wagering options. Interestingly, the statistical disparities and situational factors suggest even more pronounced advantages for the Bulldogs than the current lines indicate.

It will be interesting to see how Coastal Carolina responds under interim coach Jeremiah Johnson. The Chanticleers fired head coach Tim Beck on Nov. 30. On Dec. 11, 2025, the Chants hired Ryan Beard.

Spread Pick: Louisiana Tech -9.5 (-107) at DraftKings Sportsbook

(These odds are from Monday morning, Dec. 29.)

The Bulldogs present compelling value as road chalk, supported by multiple statistical edges that create a perfect storm for a comfortable victory. Louisiana Tech’s defense has been nothing short of elite in creating turnovers, intercepting numerous passes while maintaining a strong turnover differential that ranks among the nation’s best. This ball-hawking mentality directly counters Coastal Carolina’s biggest weakness – protecting the football.

Historical trends strongly support this lean. Louisiana Tech has demonstrated their ability to cover significant spreads when properly motivated. The Bulldogs have also dominated Conference USA opponents, showing they can deliver decisive performances when facing lesser competition.

Coastal Carolina’s situational trends work against them in this spot. The Chanticleers struggle to bounce back from blowout defeats. Their shellacking in their season finale fits this exact profile, suggesting they may lack the mental fortitude to compete with a hungry Louisiana Tech squad.

Total Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at Bet365 Sportsbook

Despite the public’s overwhelming support for the Under, the environmental factors at Independence Stadium strongly favor offensive production.

Louisiana Tech’s red zone efficiency combined with its ability to sustain drives should generate consistent scoring opportunities. The Bulldogs have shown an upward trajectory in scoring as the season progressed.

Coastal Carolina’s offense, while inconsistent, has shown explosive potential when protecting the football. Their strong red zone efficiency suggests they can capitalize when given opportunities in prime scoring territory. Bowl games historically trend toward higher-scoring affairs as defenses adjust to unfamiliar offensive schemes with limited preparation time.

Public Betting Trends & Market Analysis

The college football betting public has taken decisive positions across multiple markets in this Independence Bowl matchup, creating clear consensus plays that reveal both confidence and potential contrarian opportunities.

Moneyline: Overwhelming Bulldogs Support

The most lopsided action appears on the moneyline, where an astounding majority of all tickets back Louisiana Tech to win straight up. The handle mirrors this sentiment with a significant portion of total money wagered on the Bulldogs. This represents one of the most unanimous public positions of the bowl season.

This extreme consensus aligns with our analytical lean toward the Bulldogs.

Spread: More Balanced Market Reveals Nuance

The spread market tells a more nuanced story. Coastal Carolina attracts a notable percentage of spread bets, with a portion of the handle also backing the Chanticleers to cover the spread. This split suggests that while the public believes Louisiana Tech will win, there’s less conviction about their ability to cover the substantial spread.

The relatively even money distribution on the spread indicates sharper bettors may be finding value on both sides, creating a more efficient market than the lopsided moneyline action suggests.

Total: Strong Under Consensus Creates Contrarian Opportunity

Perhaps the most intriguing public position involves the total, where a significant percentage of bets hammer the Under. The money follows suit with a significant portion of the handle supporting a lower-scoring affair. This consensus directly contradicts our analytical approach that favors offensive production in the controlled environment of Independence Stadium.

The heavy Under action creates a classic “fade the public” scenario for bettors who believe both offenses will find success on the fast artificial turf. This contrarian angle gains additional appeal considering bowl games’ historical tendency toward higher-scoring outcomes.

Statistical Breakdown: Who Has the Edge?

Louisiana Tech’s advantages in offensive efficiency and defensive playmaking create multiple paths to victory and comfortable spread coverage.

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech Independence Bowl Odds

The betting market has established Louisiana Tech as a substantial favorite across all major wagering options, reflecting both their statistical superiority and advantageous neutral-site positioning in their home state.

• Moneyline: Louisiana Tech -341 | Coastal Carolina +271
• Spread: Louisiana Tech -9.5 (-107) | Coastal Carolina +9.5 (-113)
• Total: Over 51.5 (-107) | Under 51.5 (-112)

Odds as of December 28, 2025, from consensus sportsbook data.

The substantial favorite status for Louisiana Tech reflects the market’s confidence in their ability to control this Independence Bowl matchup. The Bulldogs’ -341 moneyline price indicates the sportsbooks view this as a significant mismatch, while the 9.5-point spread suggests expectations for a comfortable victory rather than a competitive bowl game.

After removing the standard bookmaker commission, Louisiana Tech carries an 77.32% implied probability of winning outright. This lopsided market assessment aligns with the statistical disparities and situational advantages favoring the Bulldogs.

From a risk-reward perspective, a successful wager on favored Louisiana Tech would return a modest profit. Conversely, backing underdog Coastal Carolina with the same stake would yield a substantial profit if the Chanticleers can pull off the upset.

The total sits in neutral territory with slightly juiced Under odds, suggesting the market expects a moderately-paced game rather than an explosive offensive showcase. This number creates opportunities for bettors on both sides depending on their assessment of how the artificial turf and bowl environment will impact offensive production.