College Football Upset Picks Today (Saturday, Sept. 16)

• It’s Week 3 of the college football season — let’s let the dogs out
• South Alabama, Florida and Virginia Tech are live underdog plays
• Read below for analysis and predictions for college football Week 3 upsets

The third full week of the college football season presents another opportunity to let the dogs run. Visiting South Alabama of the underappreciated Sun Belt returns 18 starters from a 12-win team and is the best team Oklahoma State has faced this season.

Florida has history on its side in a home game against No. 11 Tennessee. The Gators have won the last nine meetings in the Swamp and 15 of the last 17 overall, and Virginia Tech owns a big series edge over Rutgers.

Our Upset Pick #1 is 2-0 this season, with Wyoming and Rice winning outright for a net return of plus-7.35 units.

South Alabama vs Oklahoma State Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 15. Grab a Caesars promo code to bet on CFB upsets. 

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Upset Pick #1: South Alabama Breaks Pokes

South Alabama returns 18 starters including senior quarterback Carter Bradley and single-season rushing leader La’Damian Webb from the team that won 10 games in 2022 and was a last-second field goal away from beating UCLA (31-32 loss) in Los Angeles in Week 3 last season. Bradley and Webb combined for 361 yards in that one.

La'Damian Webb for another Jaguar touchdown ‼️#LEO pic.twitter.com/EjsaKoEL8h

— South Alabama Football 🏈 (@SouthAlabamaFB) September 9, 2023

Tulane beat South Alabama 37-17 in Week 1 using five passing plays of more than 30 yards, but the Oklahoma State offense — coach Mike Gundy plays three quarterbacks, including son Gunnar — has shown a limited capability. The Cowboys relied on their defense to handle FCS Central Arkansas and rebuilding Arizona State, and this will be the best team they have faced.

Although the Jaguars, who are favored in the Sun Belt West in the CFB college championship odds, have beaten only one Power 5 team (Mississippi State in 2016), they are primed for another. Oklahoma State could be looking past this one with the Big 12 opener at Iowa State next week and the Kansas schools the following two weeks. The moneyline opened with the Jaguars at +270.

Pick: South Alabama (+222)

Tennessee vs Florida Odds

Odds from BetMGM  Sportsbook on Sept. 15. 

Upset Pick #2: Gators Extend a Trend

Florida had won five in a row and 16 of 17 against the Vols until a 38-33 loss as an 11-point dog on the checkerboard last season. Wisconsin portal transfer Graham Mertz has taken over at quarterback for Anthony Richardson and brings a different skill set, making the Gators more balanced in coach Billy Napier’s second season.

Utah handled the Gators easily in a 24-11 victory in the opener, but Tennessee’s defense is much more susceptible. Austin Peay had 260 yards passing in a 30-13 loss to the Vols last week, and the Gators ranked 127th out of 131 Division I teams in passing yards allowed per game in 2022.

Below is proof that no matter how bad Florida’s QB is, against @Vol_Football they will put up crazy #’s

Here are the stats of UF QB’s against the #Vols vs other FBS schools. Graham Mertz may ball out against us but let’s hope the Vols still get the W#GoVols #GBO #VFL pic.twitter.com/VoifIEOE6Y

— vfl_data (@vfl_data) September 12, 2023

Both teams lost star quarterbacks from the Vols’ shootout a year ago, when the Gators had 594 yards total offense and a 9:54 edge in time of possession. This will be Joe Milton’s first SEC test (his one league start last year was at Vanderbilt) after the Vols opened with wins over rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay. The Gators have won nine in a row in the series at the Swamp. The line opened at +7 but has dipped to +5.5 in some spots.

Pick: Florida (+200)

Virginia Tech vs Rutgers Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 15. Take a look at more lines in this week’s college football odds.

The Scarlet Knights’ 2-0 record is a bit deceiving. They beat a Northwestern team burdened with offseason issues in the opener and needed a fourth-quarter burst last week to handle Temple, which had one of the most porous defenses in the American Athletic in 2022.

Four (4) Big Ten players have already rushed for 200+ yards this season:

1. Nathan Carter, MSU – 37 rush, 224 yds, 4 TD
2. Roman Hemby, MARY – 32 rush, 220 yds, 2 TD
3. Kyle Monangai, RUT – 42 rush, 214 yds, 2 TD
4. Chez Mellusi, WISC – 25 rush, 207 yds, 2 TD

Run, established.

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 13, 2023

Virginia Tech dominated this series in the early 2000s, but that was then. Second-year coach Brent Pry’s team was 3-8 last season, but four of its losses were one-score games and they finished the season with a 23-22 win at Liberty. Quarterbacks Grant Wells and Kyron Drones slogged through heavy rain that caused 5:37 weather delay in the first quarter. Things should return to normal here.

Pick: Virginia Tech (+210)

Last week: -.25 units

Season: +1.5 units