Early Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction, Line & H2H History – CFP Round 1

• Alabama and Oklahoma meet in a rematch in Round 1 of the CFP Playoff
• OU won 23-21 in the first matchup during the regular season
• Read below for my early Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction, line, and pick

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The No.9 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) will look to exact revenge on the No.8 Oklahoma Sooners after losing to them earlier in the season. Memorial Stadium in Norman will host this CFP First Round Game on Friday, Dec. 19 at 8:00 PM ET. ABC and ESPN will share broadcasting duties.

Keep reading for my early Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction, line, and pick for this SEC battle in the College Football Playoff.

Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction for CFP Round 1

• Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17 (OT)

I am picking the Crimson Tide to win a low-scoring game in overtime, rebounding from their November loss to Oklahoma and their SEC Title Game loss to Georgia. My early Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction sees the Tide exacting revenge in a defensive slugfest.

The winner will advance in the CFP Bracket to face No.1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl.

Alabama Crimson Tide Analysis

Alabama opened the season with a shocking loss to Florida State, but they rebounded with eight straight wins to rise as high as No.4 in the AP Poll. The Crimson Tide suffered a loss to Oklahoma before steadying the ship enough to beat FCS Eastern Illinois and Auburn to be the No.1 seed in the SEC Championship Game. That game did not go to plan as the Tide lost 28-7.

A Heisman contender earlier in the season, Ty Simpson has cooled off in recent weeks. In his last four games, Simpson has five passing touchdowns and four interceptions, representing 80% of his interception tally on the season. As the weeks go by, it looks more and more likely that Simpson returns to school in 2026.

Alabama’s rushing attack has been shaky. Jamarion “Jam” Miller has been the top option, and he should be back for the CFP after missing the SEC Title Game. Miller leads the Tide with 493 rushing yards on the season. Daniel Hill leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.

The Crimson Tide has three future NFL wide receivers. Germie Bernard has been the best of the bunch this season, leading the team with 57 catches for 762 yards. Isaiah Horton has caught a team-best eight touchdowns. Ryan Williams is the most talented of the bunch, but he has had an enigmatic season with multiple zero-yard outings.

GERMIE BERNARD DESTROYS ARM TACKLES FOR SIX pic.twitter.com/sR7uzv0osk

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) December 6, 2025

On the Alabama defense, watch for Yhonzae Pierre. Pierre leads the Tide with 11.5 tackles for a loss, 6.0 sacks, and three forced fumbles. Safety Bray Hubbard has also been a turnover machine, picking off a conference-leading four passes and forcing three fumbles.

Oklahoma Sooners Analysis

Oklahoma got out to a boiling 5-0 start before dropping the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma beat South Carolina before losing to Ole Miss and dropping to No.18 in the AP Poll. However, Oklahoma buckled down, beating ranked Tennessee, ranked Alabama, and ranked Missouri to surge to No.8 in the Polls and earn a CFP bye.

John Mateer was an early-season Heisman candidate, but he suffered a thumb injury against Auburn and has not been the same since. In the last seven games, Mateer has more interceptions than passing touchdowns, and he has averaged just 32 rushing yards per game. Mateer is as big an X-factor as it comes for the CFP.

Like Alabama, Oklahoma has had major problems running the ball. No Sooner has more than 500 yards this season, but three players have at least 400 yards. Tory Blaylock leads the team with 444 rushing yards, but Xavier Robinson has been the more effective option, averaging north of 5.0 yards per carry.

Isaiah Sategna has been a breakout player for the Sooners, racking up 65 catches for 948 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Behind Sategna, Deion Burks has had a solid season with 50 catches for 513 yards.

For the Oklahoma defense, watch for defensive back Eli Bowen. In the first matchup, Bowen had an 87-yard pick-six. He has two interceptions and two additional pass deflections in his last three games.

87-YARD PICK SIX‼️@EliBowen12 | 📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/vzVDocagWz

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 15, 2025

Alabama vs Oklahoma Line

The Alabama vs Oklahoma line has Oklahoma as a 1.5-point spread favorite for the CFP First Round Game at DraftKings, with the total set at 43.5. There is equal -110 juice on both the Over and the Under.

In terms of the moneyline, Oklahoma is a -115 favorite. The Tide have a -105 moneyline. Fans should be in for another nail-biting thriller between these two historic powerhouses.

In their previous matchup, Oklahoma covered (and won outright) as 6.5-point underdogs in Tuscaloosa. Under 45.5 hit narrowly as the Sooners won 23-21. With Oklahoma being the higher seed, the oddsmakers are backing the Sooners in the college football betting odds.

Alabama vs Oklahoma line as of December 7, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Bama vs OU.

Alabama vs Oklahoma Recent History

Oklahoma holds the lifetime edge 5-2-1 in this series between blue bloods. Oklahoma has won five of the last six games, only dropping the 2018 Orange Bowl. By a strange coincidence, Alabama has only beaten Oklahoma in their previous Orange Bowls. In other games, Oklahoma is 5-0-1.

In November, Oklahoma won 23-21 at Alabama. Oklahoma blew an early 10-0 lead, but the Sooners answered with a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter. John Mateer racked up 161 total yards and a rushing touchdown for the Sooners. On the Alabama side, Ty Simpson threw for over 300 yards, tossing a touchdown to both teams.

CFP History for Alabama vs Oklahoma

Alabama in the College Football Playoff

This is Alabama’s ninth CFP appearance. In their previous appearances, Alabama has advanced to six championship games, winning in 2015, 2017, and 2020. The Crimson Tide last made it to the CFP in 2023 where they lost to eventual champions Michigan in the semifinal.

Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff

This is Oklahoma’s fifth CFP. The Sooners have yet to win a game in the CFP, losing in the semifinal in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Alabama and Oklahoma played in the 2018 Orange Bowl with No.1 Alabama knocking off No.4 Oklahoma 45-34.