Early Florida vs Miami (FL) Prediction, Pick & Odds – CFB Week 4

• Miami is rolling after its second win over a Top 25 opponent
• Florida is reeling after a damaging loss to LSU
• Check out my Florida vs Miami (FL) prediction and the betting odds below

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A great rivalry is renewed as the Florida Gators head to Miami Gardens to face the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Florida (1-2) and No.4 Miami (3-0) meet for the 58th time. Miami plays host at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 20th, on an ABC broadcast.

I’ve made my Florida vs Miami (FL) prediction for Saturday and set out the betting odds with kickoff around the corner.

Florida vs Miami (FL) Prediction & Pick

• Miami (FL) -7.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Any conversation about Miami must begin with Heisman front-runner Carson Beck. Beck has been superlative thus far for the Canes. He leads the country with a 79.3% completion percentage, and he has an ACC-leading 9.9 yards per pass attempt.

While Florida is no longer ranked, Beck has picked on ranked teams to the tune of 545 yards and five touchdowns in Miami’s wins over Notre Dame and South Florida.

Carson Beck through three:

— 65-82
— 838 TOT YDs
— 8 TOT TDs
— 2 INTs
— 89.9 QBR (4th in the country)

Balling. pic.twitter.com/geWL2nwFNE

— CanesMuse (@canes_muse) September 15, 2025

Beck has a solid group of weapons around him, beginning with Mark Fletcher Jr. out of the backfield. Fletcher has run for multiple touchdowns in each of the last two games, and he averaged 7.5 yards per carry last week. The receiving corps has outperformed expectations with Malachi Toney (228 yards) and CJ Daniels (three touchdowns) standing out.

Florida is in a free-fall after starting off the season with a 55-0 win. In Week 2, USF shocked the Gators with a last-second field goal. Last week, it unraveled for Florida in one of the ugliest 10-point losses imaginable against LSU. DJ Lagway tossed five interceptions, becoming the first SEC quarterback since 2020 to throw five picks in a game.

DJ LAGWAY THROWS HIS 5TH INTERCEPTION OF THE NIGHT 😱 pic.twitter.com/iAlaByoqpM

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 14, 2025

Lagway has six interceptions in the last two games, sabotaging Florida’s chances at a hot start to the season.

Beyond Lagway, the Gators have had healthy production from running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh has rushed for 243 yards and a touchdown so far. Last week, he caught seven passes out of the backfield for 59 yards. Receivers Vernell Brown III (197 yards) and Eugene Wilson III (two touchdowns) have been capable options in the passing attack.

With this in mind, I am backing the red-hot Hurricanes to beat the Gators by at least eight points.

Florida vs Miami (FL) Betting Odds

The sportsbooks have Miami as home favorites with the total at 51.5. Over bettors can get over 51.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 51.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds.

Miami bettors should take them -7.5 at DraftKings (-110 odds) or -285 on the moneyline at FanDuel. Florida bettors should take them +7.5 at FanDuel (-106 odds) or +250 on the moneyline at Caesars.

Odds as of September 16, 2025, at our top-rated college football betting apps. Make sure to take advantage of the best sportsbook promos when you sign up.

Florida vs Miami (FL) Last Five Matchups

Miami holds the lifetime series lead, posting a 30-27 record across the first 57 matchups. The schools had played every season (besides 1943) from 1938 to 1987 before taking a hiatus until the January 2001 Sugar Bowl.

Last season, the Canes cruised to a dominant win in Gainesville. Future No.1 overall pick Cam Ward threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns while Florida sputtered to just 261 total yards.

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE U 🔥

MIAMI THUMPS FLORIDA 41-17 AT THE SWAMP TO GET THE SEASON-OPENING VICTORY 😤 pic.twitter.com/tCgjjJ8UWS

— ESPN (@espn) August 31, 2024

Lagway will look to exact revenge on the Canes. While he did not start for the Gators, he came in in relief of Graham Mertz, completing three of six passes for 31 yards and an interception.