Early Texas vs Ohio State Prediction, Pick & Betting Line – CFB Week 1

• The #1 Texas Longhorns are slight road underdogs at the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes on Aug. 30
• Both teams return less than 50% of production on both sides of the ball
• See the Texas vs Ohio State prediction, picks, and betting lines for Saturday’s game in Columbus

Week 1 of the college football season features a heavyweight clash between the top-ranked Texas Longhorns (13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS in 2024) and reigning national champion Ohio State Buckeyes (14-2 SU, 10-6 in 2024) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus at noon ET on Saturday, August 30th. FOX will carry the broadcast.

On paper, this is a rematch of last season’s Cotton Bowl, which doubled as a national semifinal. But, due to roster turnover, neither team will bear much resemblance to the squads that took the field in Dallas. Both teams lost over 50% of their offensive and defensive production. Of course, Ryan Day and Steve Sarkisian don’t rebuild; they reload.

With Arch Manning taking over as QB1, the Longhorns enter the season as the #1 team in the AP Poll. The #3 Buckeyes get a slight nod from oddsmakers heading into Week 1, though.

Jump to: Best Odds | H2H Results | Picks & Prediction

Texas vs Ohio State Betting Lines

It’s early enough in the week that there is still a full one-point range in the Texas/Ohio State point spread. The line is as high as Texas +2.5 (-110) at FanDuel and as low as Ohio State -1.5 (-112) at DraftKings, giving bettors a very slim opportunity to try to middle. On the moneyline, the best price on a Texas victory is +106 at FanDuel, while BetMGM has the longest odds on Ohio State at -120. The game total shows a half-point range: over bettors should take O 47.5 (-112) at DraftKings; under bettors should take U 48.0 (-110) at bet365.

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Manning enters the season as the outright favorite in the Heisman Trophy odds at +630, looking to capture an accolade neither his uncle Peyton or Eli managed to win. Ohio State sophomore starter Julian Sayin is the +1960 eighth-favorite.

Though Big Ten rival Penn State sits ahead of Ohio State in the first AP Poll, the Buckeyes and Longhorns are the top-two favorites in this year’s CFP national championship odds. Ahead of their Week 1 clash in Columbus, Texas is +500 on average to win its first title since Vince Young’s 2005 team, while Ohio State is +525 to repeat as champs, a step ahead of Penn State (+700) and Georgia (+717).

Ohio State vs Texas H2H Results

Ohio State and Texas have only met four times in school history, and the meeting last season was the first in over 15 years. They have split the head-to-head series 2-2 with Texas winning the only previous meeting in Columbus (25-22) back in 2005.

Ohio State’s defense starred in last season’s 28-14 Cotton Bowl victory, holding Texas to 341 yards of total offense, including just 58 rushing yards at 2.0 YPC. Arch Manning didn’t throw a pass, but did come in for a 4th-and-1 conversion that resulted in a bit hit on the young pivot and a near fumble.

Texas went 4-0 in true road games last season but only 2-2 ATS, beating Michigan (31-12 at 6.5-point favorites), Vanderbilt (27-24 at 17-point favorites), Arkansas (20-10 as 13.5-point favorites), and Texas A&M (17-7 as 4.5-point favorites).

Ohio State was 9-1 SU and 5-4 ATS at home in 2024, dropping their annual clash with Michigan (13-10) as massive 19.5-point favorites.

Texas vs Ohio State Picks & Prediction

• Ohio State moneyline (-120) at BetMGM

This is a rare opportunity to get Ohio State at home in a virtual pick’em. The Texas/Ohio State spread opened at 4.5 roughly a month ago, with the college football public betting trends swinging it massively in Texas’ favor.

Yes, Ryan Day lost 14 players to the 2025 NFL Draft, but that’s not a new experience for the Buckeyes, who had the #3 recruiting class in 2023, #5 in 2024, and #4 in 2025. Texas is in virtually the same boat; a dozen Longhorns were picked in the 2025 NFL draft but they’re restocked with the #3, #6, and #1 recruiting classes from 2023 to 2025.

The hype around Arch Manning is one of the driving forces behind Texas’ stature as the national championship favorite and movement in the Week 1 college football odds. He wound up completing 61 of 90 passes in spot duty as a freshman last year, posting a mediocre 87.5 QBR with nine TD passes and two interceptions. Four of those TD passes came in relief of Quinn Ewers during a 56-7 rout of UTSA.

This will be Manning’s first career start against an elite defense, and it will be in the most-hostile territory imaginable.

I don’t expect former Alabama transfer Julian Sayers to shred the Texas defense, but his top target – Jeremiah Smith – will be the most-dangerous offensive weapon on either side. I”ll take the Buckeyes in a near-pick’em at home every day of the week, and twice on Saturday.