Early Vanderbilt vs Texas Prediction, Preview & Betting Line – SEC Week 10 

• No. 20 Texas hosts No. 9 Vanderbilt in an SEC showdown on Saturday
• The Longhorns are looking for their fourth-straight win when they play the Commodores
• See our early Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction, preview & betting line for SEC Week 10

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One of the most anticipated games on the Week 10 college football slate kicks off at Noon ET, as the No. 20 Longhorns host the No. 9 Commodores at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. ABC will carry the coverage of this game.

Texas opened as a three-point favorite, although the market has already shifted. Here is how this matchup is expected to unfold with an early Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction, preview, and betting breakdown for SEC Week 10.

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Vanderbilt vs Texas Prediction

• Spread Prediction: Longhorns -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The Quarterback Matchup

A huge factor in my Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction is quarterback play. As good as Diego Pavia has looked, and as disappointing as Arch Manning has played, it would not be shocking if their performances flipped this week.

Manning draws a favorable matchup against a Vanderbilt secondary that ranks 112th in EPA per pass allowed. If there was ever a spot for him to step up, it is at home, where Texas has played much better, and against a defense this vulnerable through the air.

Pavia’s Struggles Against Elite Defenses

On the other side, Pavia has struggled when facing top-tier defenses. Last week against Missouri, one of the best units in the country, he attempted just 19 passes, completing 10 of them (52.6 percent) for 129 yards with no touchdowns and a turnover.

The week prior against LSU, he went 14-of-22 for 160 yards and one passing touchdown. He also failed to reach 200 passing yards in the loss to Alabama.

He has made up for it on the ground with over 100 rushing yards and three rushing scores over the past two weeks, which helped Vanderbilt secure wins. The challenge now becomes whether he can repeat that success against a Texas run defense that ranks third in EPA per rush.

Pavia is the Commodores’ leading rusher, which creates concern when your quarterback is carrying that load. Vanderbilt must find a way to run the ball efficiently to survive this Longhorns defense in a hostile environment, especially with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread.

The Grind Factor

The Commodores are also grinding through a brutal four-game stretch featuring Alabama, LSU, Missouri, and now Texas.

The Longhorns have dealt with a taxing run of their own, but mainly because they have played extra snaps with back-to-back overtime games rather than elite opponents.

Texas had a 1.4% chance to win with 11:40 left in the 4th quarter 🤯

The Longhorns finished the game on a 24-0 run to get the OT victory at Mississippi State. pic.twitter.com/rjaiSzSrx6

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) October 26, 2025

All of these factors contribute to why the total opened as low as 45.5 and has barely moved.

Touchdowns may be at a premium, and whichever side commits the first costly turnover could be staring at the decisive moment of this game.

Commodores vs Longhorns Preview

Texas: Sloppy and Underwhelming

If two adjectives were needed to summarize Texas’ season to this point, “sloppy” and “underwhelming” would fit. The Longhorns entered the year ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls. They now sit at 6-2 entering Week 10, with each of their last two wins coming unconvincingly in overtime finishes.

HORNS WIN IN OT 🤘‼️ pic.twitter.com/frwdztqKSU

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 26, 2025

The scrutiny on Arch Manning will only intensify. It’s okay to acknowledge that he may not be the superstar many projected him to be. The pressure attached to his last name is unprecedented, and he hasn’t shown consistently or dominance.

Through eight games, Manning owns a 61 percent completion rate with a 15-to-6 touchdown-interception ratio. He has surpassed 20 completions in a game only twice, including last week’s dramatic comeback at Mississippi State, where Texas trailed by as many as 17 points in the fourth quarter before escaping 45-38 in overtime.

Recent Texas Performances

Their resilience should be acknowledged, but the underlying issues remain concerning. Two weeks ago, Texas needed overtime to grind past Kentucky 16-13 in a sloppy showing.

Their most impressive performance came in the Red River Rivalry, a 23-6 win over Oklahoma, although an injured John Mateer led the Sooners.

The more Texas plays, the more their flaws keep showing, which makes fading them an appealing approach. You still have to evaluate the matchup each week, though, and this week they are facing a pretty darn good squad.

Vanderbilt’s Strong Season

The No. 9-ranked Commodores, led by 24-year-old senior Diego Pavia, have lost just one game this season, which came a few weeks ago as double-digit underdogs, 30-14 at Alabama.

Otherwise, notable wins came against South Carolina in Week 3, when the Gamecocks were ranked 11th. A couple weeks ago, they overcame the LSU Tigers, ranked 10, at home 31-24 and then held on against the No.15 Missouri Tigers 17-10.

Pavia’s Season Stats

Pavia has thrown for almost 1,700 yards with a 69% completion rate, while tossing 15 touchdowns and only five picks. He’s also added 458 yards with his feet and has rushed for five scores as well.

Diego Pavia asked if he believes he should win the Heisman Trophy after the Mizzou win:

"Hell yeah, I believe it." pic.twitter.com/WP6uQE5rOh

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) October 26, 2025

Pavia has this Vanderbilt offense sitting fourth in total success rate, along with 13th in EPA per play. Can they continue their success against a Longhorns defense that ranks top-40 in both EPA and success rate allowed?

I do not think so, at least not enough to overcome Steve Sarkisian’s crew on Saturday. Texas’ defense should be the ultimate difference-maker, and Manning finally has a chance to deliver some big throws against a vulnerable Vanderbilt secondary.

Vandy vs Texas Betting Line

Odds via DraftKings Sportbook as of Monday, October 27th at 2:00 pm ET. Get an understanding of DraftKings legal states before wagering.