Expert South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction & Line for Thursday Sun Belt Showdown
By Danny Burke in College Football
Published:
- Georgia State hosts South Alabama at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
- Both the Jaguars and Panthers enter this game with 1-6 records
- See our expert South Alabama vs Georgia State prediction & line for Thursday’s Sun Belt Showdown
One of these teams will finally notch their second win of the season when Georgia State hosts South Alabama. Both the Jaguars and Panthers enter this matchup at 1-6 overall with no conference victories. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, with coverage on ESPN2.
Something has to give, but what will it be? Let’s break it down with my South Alabama vs. Georgia State prediction and line for Thursday’s Sun Belt showdown.
South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction
Georgia State enters on a four-game skid. That stretch includes a 70-point blowout loss at Vanderbilt and back-to-back games allowing 41 points. Their lone competitive effort in that span came in a 14-7 defeat to James Madison. The question now: can the Panthers finally tighten up defensively, or will South Alabama’s offense find the same success other teams have had?
Statistically, South Alabama hasn’t been much better. The Jaguars rank 93rd in offensive EPA and 78th in success rate, though they’ve been respectable on the ground – 37th in rush EPA and 56th in rush success rate.
Defensively, they’ve been brutal. South Alabama ranks 131st in defensive success rate and 112th in EPA per play, including 133rd in rush EPA allowed and 130th in rush success rate. They’ve surrendered at least one rushing touchdown in every game this year, including eight alone in that Vanderbilt disaster.
That bodes well for senior running back Kentrel Bullock, who’s in line for a huge night. Bullock has logged 124 carries for 568 yards (4.6 YPC) and six touchdowns through seven games. His rushing prop sits around 85.5 yards, with touchdown odds heavily juiced between -250 and -330.
Given Georgia State’s inability to stop the run, this is a prime spot for him to go over. Lead backs are averaging 83 rushing yards per game against the Panthers, and with South Alabama favored by 6.5 points, game script should set up plenty of late carries to help control the clock.
On the flip side, Georgia State’s offense faces a South Alabama defense that’s far from dominant – ranking 100th in EPA per play and 99th in success rate. The Panthers aren’t particularly explosive either, but their passing game has been their best weapon. Led by the tandem of Cameran Brown and TJ Finley, Georgia State ranks 36th in EPA per pass play. Last week, Brown handled all the snaps and shined, completing 29 of 38 passes (76%) for 280 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing 15 times for 120 yards and a score against Georgia Southern. We should expect a heavy dose of Brown under center this evening, as he’s shown he’s the more capable option for Georgia State.
I expect the Jaguars to control this game on the ground, which leads me to lean toward South Alabama covering as a 6.5-point favorite. However, with both defenses being abysmal and Georgia State playing the better dual-threat quarterback, I’m ultimately staying away. There isn’t enough of an edge to either lay or take the points given how unreliable both squads have been.
My preferred play, however, is Kentrel Bullock over his rushing yards prop, as he should be the focal point of South Alabama’s offense this evening. That’s an edge we can count on.
Best Bet:
- Kentrel Bullock Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Jaguars vs Panthers Line
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11:15 am ET
Danny Burke brings nearly a decade of experience in sports media and betting, beginning at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, where he called Huskers games, developed the betting section of the local ESPN affiliate’s website, and co-hosted on its radio station. He later hosted national programs wit
