FCS Quarterfinals Predictions: Illinois State vs UC Davis Picks & Latest Odds

• UC Davis is a slight 2.5-point favorite to defeat Illinois State in the FCS Quarterfinal Playoff on December 13th
• The Redbirds are riding high after their huge upset win over defending FCS champ North Dakota State
• See below for my Illinois State vs UC Davis FCS Quarterfinals predictions, picks, and the latest odds for this Saturday evening

It is another clash involving two excellent FCS teams on Saturday evening. Now, the Illinois State Redbirds (10-4, 6-3 MVFC) take on the UC Davis Aggies (9-3, 6-2 Big Sky) in this highly anticipated matchup.

The books believe that the Aggies should narrowly defeat the Redbirds and advance to the semifinals next Saturday. That would mean a potential battle with one of the Montana teams and moving up in the College Football odds.

This FCS Quarterfinal Playoff Game is scheduled for 5:00 pm ET from UC Davis Health Stadium in Davis, California, with ESPN+ streaming the coverage.

Illinois State vs UC Davis Picks

• Prediction 1: Illinois State to win outright over UC Davis (+122 via FanDuel)
• Prediction 2: Illinois State and UC Davis Under 58.5 Points (-114 via FanDuel)

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The goal is to keep this simple, but the belief is that the better team is likely the road team here. For as good as Caden Pinnick has been (2,804 yards and 29 touchdowns), the young signal caller has not seen a defense quite like this. Illinois State has yielded 21 points or fewer in five of its previous seven games.

Meanwhile, UC Davis gives up nearly 30 points a game and doesn’t get enough push to cause negative plays. Worse, injuries have decimated UC Davis, with 15 players getting hurt at some point. Illinois State has been the far healthier team.

Hence, we like Illinois State here to advance and keep the score down just enough on Saturday evening. This is all while notching their 11th win of the season.

For the best FCS Quarterfinals playoff bets, expect Illinois State to cover the spread and win outright. This team has looked totally different since a midseason loss to Youngstown State. The Redbirds got after the ball, especially once they went down 14-0 early. It was hard to believe that North Dakota State got dominated in the trenches that viciously.

Yes, the Redbirds have a clear advantage with their defensive Front Seven. Expect them to get after Caden Pinnick early and often. Pinnick is not accustomed to this kind of intensive rush.

Illinois State vs UC Davis Latest Odds

The latest line shows UC Davis as a 2.5-point favorite on the spread for Saturday evening CFB, with an updated listed total of 58.5 points. The moneyline leans to UC Davis because of the home-field advantage at -2.5, which is about two or three points higher, given the home bump.

Then again, the Redbirds, on second look, may have turned in one of the defensive gems of the year last week. Are they getting the respect they deserve for what happened against North Dakota State? Will there be a hangover?

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Odds as of December 13, 2025, at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to bet on Illinois State vs UC Davis today.

In the FCS National Championship odds, Illinois State moved to +2200, while UC Davis comes in a hair shorter at +1700. Bluntly, the Redbirds probably should have the shorter numbers once one really watches how each team has looked the previous five or six games. More often than not, the Redbirds have been better at the point of attack on both sides of the ball.

UC Davis does not create the same chaos as their offense and defense could both get rattled in this game. Illinois State can run efficiently and convert third downs. It is how they defeated North Dakota State despite so many mistakes.

A Few Final Words on Illinois State vs UC Davis

After that big offensive play from North Dakota State, things went downhill fast. Illinois State held the Bison to 103 total yards and six first downs the rest of the way. It was clinical, and the more the Bison tried to attack, the harder the Redbirds came on defense.

The Aggies have watched film and will make adjustments. However, it is hard to stop a bigger, faster unit.