Final Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction & Closing CFP First Round Odds (Dec 19)

• Oklahoma is a 1-point favorite over Alabama in the College Football Playoff First Round Game
• The Sooners took down the Tide 23-21 in the regular season
• See my final Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction, plus the closing CFP first round odds below

It’s playoff time, with the CFP officially getting underway tonight. #9 Alabama (10-3) takes on #8 Oklahoma (10-2) in the first contest, with the Sooners pegged as favorites in the latest college football odds.

Kickoff is set for 8 pm ET from Memorial Stadium, in Norman, OK, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction, plus the closing CFP first-round odds.

Final Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction

The opening matchup in the CFP bracket is actually a rematch of last month’s regular-season tilt in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners escaped with a 23-21 victory, thanks in large part to their defense and special teams.

Oklahoma got a pick-six and forced two additional turnovers in the upset, while they were constantly gifted short fields thanks to some poor Alabama punting. The Tide also missed their only field goal attempt, while OU was 3-for-3 in field goal tries.

Alabama outgained the Sooners by almost 200 yards, and held the ball for nearly 10 minutes longer. Since then, however, the Tide’s play has dropped off significantly, while Oklahoma continues to trend up. Now, there’s questions surrounding head coach Kalen DeBoer’s future, and Alabama is dealing with significant offensive injuries.

QB Ty Simpson clearly isn’t healthy, not that his receivers are doing him any favors. Bama pass catchers have dropped 26 passes this season, including eight in the last two games. Number one receiver Ryan Williams has been a no-show for weeks, while starting RB Jam Miller had to sit out the SEC Championship Game.

Miller is expected to suit up tonight, not that it will matter (more on that later), but it looks like starting tight end Josh Cuevas might not play.

Entering play, the Tide have scored 21 points or fewer in three of their last four games. The lone exception came in a blowout versus Eastern Illinois, an FCS cellar dweller.

Oklahoma Defense Stats

That spells trouble tonight on the road in Oklahoma, versus one of the best defenses in the country. The Sooners are seventh in scoring defense, and sixth in yards per play allowed. No team allows fewer yards per carry (2.1), while the Tide mustered just 1.5 yards per rush in their SEC Championship defeat.

Offensively, Oklahoma is no juggernaut, but there are reasons to believe John Mater and Co. can find success. The Alabama pass rush has been nonexistent lately, and Mateer completes nearly 70% of his throws from a clean pocket. His top connection Isaiah Sategna III is averaging 2.4 yards per route this season, while the Tide just allowed Georgia’s Gunner Stockton to go 20-of-26, with 3 TD passes last time out.

Finally, there’s the special teams element. It swung the first meeting between these teams, and poor special teams play has haunted Bama all season. They rank bottom-25 in all special teams efficiency units, while the Sooners are top-25. Oklahoma kicker Tate Sandell has been especially clutch, nailing 100% of his extra points and 96% of his field goals.

Give me the Sooners on the moneyline, in what should be another tightly contested, low-scoring affair.

Alabama vs Oklahoma Opt Outs

This game doesn’t feature any names in the college football opt outs tracker, however OU is expected to get some reinforcements back. Most notably, defensive end Mason Thomas, a potential first-round NFL pick. Thomas hasn’t played since Week 10, but is still the Sooners’ sack leader with 6.5 so far.

Alabama vs Oklahoma Closing CFP First Round Odds

The best place to bet Oklahoma on the moneyline is currently at FanDuel. They’re offering a -112 moneyline on the Sooners, which is a few cents shorter than the other commercial books.

If you’re looking to bet the spread, Bet365 has the shortest odds on Oklahoma -1, while Caesars has moved the spread to -1.5, making them the book to wager at if you want to bet Bama.

Bet365 is also the spot to visit if you want to bet the over, as their total is a half point lower than the rest of the market.

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Odds as of Dec. 19 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, I’d think twice before betting an over in a Sooners game. The under has hit in three straight Oklahoma games, and is 10-2 overall in the Sooners 12 contests.