Final California vs Virginia Tech Prediction, Best Bets & Line (Oct. 24)

• Virginia Tech is now a 6.5-point home favorite over Cal despite their 2-5 record
• The Hokies are 0-3 straight up and ATS as home favorites this season
• Check out my California vs Virginia Tech final prediction, prop bets and the closing line, below

Friday night football in Blacksburg usually favors the home team, but this year’s been different. Virginia Tech has been allowing 39.7 points per game at Lane Stadium while going winless as home favorites.

California (5-2, 2-1 ACC) makes their first regular-season trip to Virginia Tech (2-5, 1-2 ACC) for a 7:30pm ET kickoff on ESPN. These schools last met in the 2003 Insight Bowl when Aaron Rodgers threw for 394 yards in Cal’s 52-49 victory.

The Hokies fired coach Brent Pry after Old Dominion scored 45 points on them at home in Week 3. Interim coach Philip Montgomery has them playing harder with wins over Wofford and NC State. They still dropped games to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, but now they’re coming off a bye week with two weeks to prepare.

Final California vs Virginia Tech Prediction

The spread catches your attention right away. Virginia Tech at 2-5 laying 6.5 points to a 5-2 team? The oddsmakers see something beyond the records.

Cal’s schedule hasn’t been challenging. Their five wins came against Oregon State, Texas Southern (FCS), Minnesota, Boston College, and North Carolina. That UNC game could have gone either way. The Tar Heels fumbled at the goal line while driving for the potential go-ahead touchdown with three minutes left, and Cal escaped with a 21-18 win.

The Golden Bears rank last in the ACC with 94 rushing yards per game. Their passing game sits 13th at 249 yards, and they’re scoring 23.7 points per game (14th in ACC). Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has 1,696 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing 60.39% of his passes.

California vs Virginia Tech Key Matchup Stats

Virginia Tech’s home struggles have been concerning. They’re 0-3 straight up and ATS as home favorites against FBS teams, getting outscored by 16.7 points per game. Old Dominion scored 45, Vanderbilt put up 44, and Wake Forest managed 30.

The Hokies’ defense allows 468 yards per game at Lane Stadium. Since last season, they’re 1-4 straight up and ATS as home favorites of seven points or less. That’s one win in five tries laying less than a touchdown at home.

The bye week helps Virginia Tech. They had more injured starters than healthy ones against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, so the extra rest should get players back. Kyron Drones has thrown for 1,407 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also ran for a season-high 83 yards against Georgia Tech but averages just three yards per carry on 92 attempts this season.

Those home numbers matter. Virginia Tech’s defense has struggled at Lane Stadium all season, while Cal has put up points on quality defenses. The Golden Bears beat Minnesota 27-14 as three-point underdogs, and Minnesota is 5-2 with a 3-1 Big Ten record.

Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones ran for 83 yards in their last outing at Georgia Tech on October 11. The Hokies lost that game 35-20 while allowing 44 points to Vanderbilt at home earlier this season. Cal tight end Mason Mini told reporters this week that the ACC is “wide-open” and the Golden Bears can win every remaining game.

The college football public betting splits reveal where sharp money may be landing. While 66% of spread tickets back underdog Cal, a solid 44% of the handle is on the Hokies -6.5. That movement suggests professional bettors are all over VA Tech. However, with the line crossing the key number of six, I think the value now lies with the dog.

Virginia Tech should win at home with rest and preparation time. But covering 6.5 points when they’ve been losing by double digits at home? That’s asking a lot from this team right now.

Final Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, California 21

• Pick: California +6.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

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California vs Virginia Tech Best Prop Bets

Drones rushing over 38.5 yards looks like the best value. He’s carried double-digit times in three straight games and cleared 30 rush yards in back-to-back outings. Virginia Tech ranks 16th nationally in EPA per rush, while Cal sits 88th in EPA per dropback allowed and in the bottom 40th percentile allowing line yards.

Trond Grizzell gets a favorable matchup against Virginia Tech’s secondary. The Hokies rank 134th nationally in EPA allowed per pass and sit in the bottom 10th percentile in explosive plays allowed. Grizzell has exceeded 42.5 receiving yards in every game he’s played this season except one.

The Drones passing under correlates with the rushing over. Cal’s pass defense ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback when adjusted for opponent. Drones averages just 201 passing yards per game with a 60.27% completion rate. If he’s running successfully, he won’t need 200 yards through the air.

California vs Virginia Tech Closing Line

Virginia Tech opened as -4.5 favorites but are now favored by 6.5 points. I’m playing the Golden Bears now that the betting line has ballooned over a touchdown. The total dropped a half point from 51 to 50.5.

VA Tech’s updated implied win probability is 68.8%, while California’s is 35.2% to get the victory.

While 76% of moneyline bets back Virginia Tech, there is 44% of ML handle on a Cal upset. That tells me there’s a realistic belief the Bears could come out of Lane Stadium with a W tonight.

Odds as of October 24th at FanDuel Sportsbook. Find the best college football betting apps for California vs Virginia Tech.