Final Florida vs Miami FL Prediction & Closing Odds – Week 4

• #4 Miami is a 7.5-point favorite over Florida in Saturday College Football action
• The Gators are 90th in yards per play, and 113th in scoring on offense
• See below for my Florida vs Miami prediction and closing odds for the Week 4 showdown

It’s the battle of the Sunshine State tonight as Florida (1-2) visits #4 Miami (3-0). Online sportsbooks are siding with the Hurricanes, and I’m looking to back them as well given the state of the Gators offense.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Final Florida vs Miami Prediction

• Miami -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

This is a matchup of two teams going in complete opposite directions. Florida is in serious jeopardy of starting 1-3 before the true gauntlet of SEC play begins, while the Canes look like legit contenders in the CFP National Championship odds.

The Gators demise has not been the result of the defense, as that unit has held up nicely so far. They’ve held three straight opponents to 20 points or less, including #3 LSU last week.

Florida’s problem lies on the other side of the ball where they rank 90th in yards per play, and 113th in scoring. DJ Langway is in the midst of a horrific sophomore slump and enters play on the heels of the worst performance of his collegiate career. Langway committed six turnover-worthy plays in Week 3, and was picked off five times by LSU. He also took three sacks and managed only 19 yards on 9 carries.

The Tigers defense was a nightmare matchup, but Miami is anything but a soft landing spot. The Hurricanes rank top-10 in rushing success rate allowed and defensive line yards, and that’s after facing quality opposition like Notre Dame and South Florida.

DJ Langway Stats

Miami is also excellent at creating tackles for loss and generating pressure, and that’s a major problem for the Gators. Entering play, Florida has yielded 23 tackles for loss already, a bottom-10 mark in the Nation.

On the other side of the ball, Heisman Trophy odds contender Carson Beck is silencing the haters. Beck leads the country in completion percentage and has already thrown for 812 yards and 7 TD. The Hurricanes are a top-20 scoring offense through three weeks, averaging 6.5 yards per play. They’ve taken down a pair of ranked teams already, and can beat you through the air or on the ground.

Led by Mark Fletcher, Miami boasts a top-50 rushing attack. The junior back is averaging over 6 yards per attempt and has already hit paydirt four times. The receiver room features multiple big-play threats, and given how LSU attacked the middle of the field versus Florida last week, you might want to put Malachi Toney on your radar in the college football player props.

The Canes are better on both sides of the ball, and have a massive advantage at the QB position. I had no trouble laying over a touchdown against the Gators last week with LSU, and I feel even better about Beck and Co. in this spot. I’ll take the Hurricanes -7.5 as my Florida vs Miami prediction, but as always ,make sure to shop for the best lines.

Florida vs Miami Closing Odds

The most favorable odds we can find on Miami -7.5 is -105 at Bet365. Total wise, if you like the under log on to FanDuel as their 51.5 point over/under is a full point more than most other shops.

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Odds as of September 20 at Bet365. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 4 college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the Hurricanes side of the spread is a very popular bet. 71% of the ATS tickets are backing Miami, expecting them to cover for a third straight game versus FBS competition.