Final Iowa vs Iowa State Prediction, Updated Odds & Trends – Big Noon Kickoff

• Iowa is getting 3.5 points as a road underdog against No. 16 Iowa State in Week 2’s Cy-Hawk rivalry game
• The Hawkeyes’ elite defense held Albany to just 134 total yards, while the Cyclones’ Rocco Becht is completing 70% of his passes
• Keep reading for my final Iowa vs Iowa State prediction, updated odds and trends for this rivalry matchup

The Cy-Hawk Trophy is on the line Saturday when Iowa travels to Ames to face No. 16 Iowa State. This rivalry has produced nothing but nail-biters lately, with 11 of the last 13 meetings decided by 10 points or fewer.

The Cyclones enter as 3.5-point favorites after quarterback Rocco Becht torched this same Iowa defense for 272 yards last season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes managed just 44 passing yards in their opener but still found a way to win behind 310 rushing yards. Classic Iowa football in the college football odds.

Here’s our final Iowa vs Iowa State prediction for Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday.

Final Iowa vs Iowa State Prediction

• Iowa +3.5 (-111 at FanDuel)

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This game screams Iowa. They’re getting more than a field goal in a rivalry that rarely sees margins bigger than that. The road team keeps winning this series, and Iowa’s defense is built for these grind-it-out affairs.

Mark Gronowski struggled throwing in his Iowa debut (8-of-15 for 44 yards), but the Hawkeyes still pounded out 310 rushing yards. Freshman Xavier Williams exploded for 122 yards, becoming just the third Hawkeye to rush for 100-plus in their collegiate debut under Kirk Ferentz.

Iowa State’s defense allowed just 96.5 rushing yards per game through two contests. But one of those games was against South Dakota. Against Kansas State, a real opponent, they surrendered 193 rushing yards.

The Cyclones lost both 1,000-yard receivers from last season (Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins). Now they’re relying heavily on tight ends – 19 of their 37 receptions have gone to that position group. That’s the highest percentage in the FBS.

Rocco Becht has been excellent, completing 69.8% of his passes with a 5-0 TD-to-INT ratio. But here’s the concern: he’s thrown seven career pick-sixes, most among active FBS players. Iowa’s defense has recorded at least one pick-six in 17 straight seasons.

The Hawkeyes own a ridiculous 33-1 record since 2020 when scoring at least 21 points. That’s the magic number. Hit 21 and they almost always win.

Updated Iowa vs Iowa State Odds

The line has moved since opening with Iowa getting 2.5 points. Iowa State is now favored by 3.5 after sharp money backed the Cyclones early in the week.

The total dropped from 45.5 to 42.5, reflecting expectations for another defensive battle. Per the college football public betting trends, the under is drawing heavy action from professional bettors.

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Odds as of September 6 at consensus sportsbooks. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 2 college football.

Iowa vs Iowa State Trends

The road team has dominated this rivalry recently, going 5-0 straight up since 2019. Iowa has won six straight trips to Ames, with Becht just seven years old the last time Iowa State beat Iowa at home.

Points have been scarce in this series. The winning team has scored 20 or fewer in five of the last six meetings. Neither squad has topped 27 points in this rivalry since 2017.

The under has value with both defenses playing at an elite level. Iowa has held opponents under 20 points per game for nine straight seasons, easily the longest active streak in the FBS.

Iowa has lost nine straight games to ranked opponents, tied for the longest streak in the Ferentz era. But they’re 97-45 (.683) since 2014, the best record among power conference teams without a CFP appearance.

Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. The Hawkeyes have struggled covering on the road against non-conference foes, going 1-4 ATS in their last five.

Key Matchup Stats

This game will come down to hidden yardage – turnovers, field position, and special teams. Iowa’s Kaden Wetjen won the Jet Award last year as college football’s top return specialist.

Matt Campbell has transformed Iowa State football, going 64-51 compared to 37-74 in the nine seasons before his arrival. But Iowa has owned this rivalry, leading the all-time series 47-24. Getting three and the hook with Iowa feels like the right side.