Final Louisville vs Miami Score Prediction & Closing Odds

• #2 Miami is a 13.5-point favorite over Louisville in ACC action on Friday night
• The total has fallen from 54.5 to 50.5 throughout the week
• See below for my final Louisville vs Miami score prediction, plus the closing odds

We’ve got a banger of a matchup tonight under the Friday night lights as #2 Miami (5-0, 1-0 ACC) hosts Louisville (4-1, 1-1 ACC). Online sportsbooks expect the Hurricanes’ undefeated season to continue, but what’s fascinating is the amount of movement on the total per the latest college football odds. Money has been pouring in on the under all week, but I still don’t think books have adjusted enough.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7 pm ET from the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Final Louisville vs Miami Score Prediction

The total for this matchup opened at 54.5, but that number didn’t last long. It’s been steadily creeping down all week and now sits at 50.5 over at BetMGM. Some books have adjusted even further, going down to 48.5, so make sure to shop around for the best price. My final Louisville vs Miami score prediction looks something like 27-20 in favor of the Canes, bringing the under squarely into play.

The Hurricanes enter play with one of the nation’s most impressive defenses. They grade out top-three per PFF in overall defense and pass rush, yielding only 4.4 yards per play. The defense is a major driving force behind the Miami love in the CFP National Championship odds, as few teams can create as much havoc on that side of the ball.

That unit will be tested tonight versus Louisville’s impressive offense, and there’s reasons to believe they’ll keep the Cardinals in check. For starters, Louisville cannot run the ball. They’re 129th in yards per carry, meaning the Hurricanes can make them one dimensional. That will allow the ferocious Miami pass rush to pin its ears back and pressure Miller Moss relentlessly.

Also working against the Cardinals is their lack of early down efficiency. Louisville’s average third down distance is 7.9 yards, and being behind the sticks is a recipe for disaster against the Canes. To make matters worse, the Cardinals o-line ranks 105th in pass protection, and 117th in run blocking.

On the other side of the ball, Carson Beck has emerged as a top Heisman Trophy odds candidate, but this will be his toughest assignment to date. Louisville grades out just behind Miami in overall defense per PFF, and actually boasts a better pass rush grade.

Louisville Defensive Stats

The Cardinals are first nationally in EPA per pass allowed, and do not give up explosive plays. They’re limiting offenses to less than 30% of the available yards per play, which is also a top-10 mark. Opposing teams are averaging only 4.5 yards per play, while only three teams have a better opponent red zone scoring rate.

Miami meanwhile, has seen a significant dip in offensive production lately. They’ve been held to 28 and 26 points in consecutive games, with Beck averaging only 200 passing yards in those outings. The Hurricanes have been living on explosive plays and those just won’t be available versus this Louisville team.

Louisville vs Miami Closing Odds

As mentioned earlier, BetMGM is the best book to bet under 50.5 points. If you’re keen on the Cardinals in this matchup, Bet365 is offering the best odds on them to pull off the upset at +400, and the lowest juice on them to cover 13.5 points at -110.

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Per the college football public betting trends, the under has hit in three of the Canes’ past four games. They’re allowing just 16 points per game this season, and only 11.5 points per outing at home.