Final Memphis vs NC State Prediction, Opt Outs & Closing Gasparilla Bowl Odds

• Memphis and NC State play for the first time ever on Friday
• NC State is missing its two leading offensive weapons
• Keep reading for my final Memphis vs NC State prediction, opt outs, and closing Gasparilla Bowl odds

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The Memphis Tigers (8-4) and NC State Wolfpack (7-5) battle in a regional showcase in the Gasparilla Bowl. Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, will host the game at 2:30 PM ET on Friday, Dec. 19. ESPN will handle the broadcast.

Keep reading for my final Memphis vs NC State prediction, key opt outs, and the closing Gasparilla Bowl odds for this bowl matchup between the Tigers and Wolfpack.

Memphis vs NC State Prediction

My final Memphis vs NC State prediction: NC State 31, Memphis 24

In my Gasparilla Bowl prediction, I am backing NC State to win and cover the spread to move to 2-0 lifetime in the Gasparilla Bowl. Here’s why NC State -3.5 is my final pick for this matchup.

As talented as Hollywood Smothers is, backup Jayden Scott was very solid in his own right. In 87 rush attempts, he forced 28 missed tackles. As a team, Memphis averaged over six missed tackles in the run game per game, which plays perfectly into Scott’s strengths.

Not only is Memphis in flux with a new head coach in Charles Huff, but the Tigers have also lost three games in a row. The Tigers opened the season 6-0 before losing four of their last six. Interim coach Reggie Howard will coach the Tigers in the Gasparilla Bowl, adding another layer of uncertainty.

In five games as a favorite, NC State went 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. NC State has covered the spread in three of their last four games, showing they perform well when expected to win.

Memphis vs NC State Opt-Outs

Memphis

• Travis Burke, OT (injury)
• Jaidyn Denis, CB (injury)
• Chauncey Logan Jr., CB (injury)
• Ryan Silverfield, HC (hired by Arkansas)

Memphis will be without an offensive tackle, two cornerbacks, and head coach Ryan Silverfield in the Gasparilla Bowl. Silverfield had a 50-24 record with the Tigers, including a perfect 4-0 in bowl games.

2025 was his fourth season out of six with at least eight wins. Silverfield will take over the Arkansas job in 2026.

NC State

• Brody Barnhardt, SAF (injury)
• Sean Brown, LB (injury)
• Brandon Cleveland, DT (opt-out)
• Jamel Johnson, CB (injury)
• Justin Joly, TE (opt-out)
• Devon Marshall, CB (opt-out)
• Jacarius Peak, LT (opt-out)
• Hollywood Smothers, RB (opt-out)
• Kamen Smith, OG (injury)

The Wolfpack will be without nine different players, with five defensive players and four offensive players not available for Dave Doeren’s bunch.

Notably, this includes opt-outs in Hollywood Smothers and Justin Joly, two potential Day 2 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.

For an update on bowl game opt-outs and injuries, check out our CFB bowl opt-out tracker.

Memphis Tigers Analysis

It was a tale of two seasons for the Tigers. As of Oct. 18, the Tigers had the inside track toward winning the American and making the CFP. However, they inexplicably lost to UAB.

They rebounded with a win over No.18 USF and Rice to get back to being No.22 in the country, but the win over Rice was Memphis’ last win as the Tigers slipped from 8-1 to 8-4.

Dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis is one of the better quarterbacks at the Group of Five level. In 2025, he tallied 24 total touchdowns in 12 games, completing just a shade under 70% of his passes.

He only threw six interceptions, and he was second on the Tigers in rushing yards (including sacks).

The Tigers’ leading rusher was junior Sutton Smith. Smith ran for 669 yards on a robust 6.6 yards per carry mark. He was second on the team with seven touchdowns, trailing only Lewis’s nine.

Both Frank Peasant and Gregory Desrosiers had strong seasons in smaller roles, scoring seven rushing touchdowns each and averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry.

Cortez Braham has a shot at 1,000 yards on the season. He would need 111 yards in the Gasparilla Bowl, a mark he reached against FAU (127) and Tulane (113).

Braham led the Tigers with 63 catches, 889 yards, and eight touchdowns in the regular season.

No one had a better shot of Cortez Braham's ridiculous 1-handed TD than our very own @adamcrisler.

Enjoy the field level view of one of the plays of the year in college football.

It doesn't get old. pic.twitter.com/5ogxNtvS6A

— Matt Infield (@Matt_Infield) October 5, 2025

On the defensive side, watch for linebacker Sam Brumfield. Brumfield leads the American with 13.0 tackles for a loss, also contributing 4.5 sacks and an interception in addition to 106 total tackles.

Also, watch for Chris Bracy who led the conference with eight pass deflections.

North Carolina State Wolfpack Analysis

The Wolfpack got off to a strong start, winning their first three games before reality set in. NC State lost five of seven to fall to 5-5, but they rebounded with wins over Florida State and North Carolina to secure a bowl bid.

With the two wins to end the season (and a strange non-conference win over fellow ACC school Virginia), NC State managed to finish 5-4 against ACC foes.

CJ Bailey‘s second season in Raleigh was a moderate improvement over his first season. He produced more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and completed a higher percentage of his passes.

He had a touchdown in every game, ending the season with back-to-back games with a 70% completion mark and multiple passing touchdowns.

CJ Bailey may be the #1 overall pick in 2027

Tools are off the charts pic.twitter.com/XLTS1ny3lQ

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) November 2, 2025

The Wolfpack will be without Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers, but they have a solid No.2 back in Jayden Scott. Scott averaged 5.6 yards per game on seven carries per game.

The freshman scored four touchdowns, including one in a 196-yard game in a win over ranked Georgia Tech.

Touchdown leader Justin Joly opted out of the bowl game, but Terrell Anderson‘s team-leading 637 yards is expected to play. Anderson caught 38 passes for 637 yards and five touchdowns.

He scored two touchdowns in NC State’s loss to Duke and one touchdown against both Notre Dame and Florida State.

The lone wolf to watch on defense is linebacker Caden Fordham. Fordham nearly doubled the next Wolfpack player in tackles, recording over 10 per game.

He led the team in both tackles for a loss (8.5) and sacks (3.5). The Wolfpack will be without Devon Marshall (opt-out) and his 15 pass deflections in 2025.

Memphis vs NC State Closing Odds

NC State is favored in the final Gasparilla Bowl odds. NC State bettors can get the Wolfpack at -3.5 on the spread at FanDuel (-110 odds) or -166 on the moneyline, also at FanDuel.

Memphis bettors can get the Tigers at +4.5 on the spread at BetRivers for -125 odds or +145 on the moneyline at Fanatics. The Tigers opened at +5.5, showing some sharp money has come in on the underdogs to tighten the line.

The total is set between 56.5 and 57.5 points. Over bettors can get over 56.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 57.5 at Caesars for -110 odds.

Odds as of December 19, 2025, at consensus College Football betting apps. Make sure you check out the best online sportsbook to bet on the Gasparilla Bowl.

Memphis vs NC State History

Despite decades of FBS play and reasonable proximity, this is the first matchup between Memphis and NC State in their respective histories.

Memphis has been an FBS-level program since 1960. North Carolina State’s FBS-level history extends decades further as the Wolfpack were a founding member of both the Southern Conference and the ACC.

Gasparilla Bowl History

This is the 17th edition of the Gasparilla, which has been played every year since 2008 except for 2020. It has previously been known as the St. Petersburg Bowl and the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl.

For the fifth season in a row, Union Home Mortgage is the sponsor of the game. Memphis is making its Gasparilla Bowl debut while NC State looks to win its second such bowl (2014).

Last season, Florida throttled Tulane, leading by 33 points until Tulane scored a garbage-time touchdown. DJ Lagway won Game MVP with 305 passing yards and one passing touchdown.

On the Tulane side, Ty Thompson struggled, throwing three interceptions and not contributing to a touchdown until the final minute.