Final Miami vs Indiana Prediction and Pick for Monday’s National Championship Game (Jan. 19)

• #1 Indiana is favored by 7.5 points in the National Championship versus #10 Miami
• The Hoosiers have outscored their opponents 95-24 in the College Football Playoff so far
• See below for my Final Miami vs Indiana prediction and pick for Monday’s National Championship Game

We’re only hours away from kickoff in the National Championship Game between #10 Miami and #1 Indiana. The Hurricanes are back home in Miami looking to capture the title for the first time since 2001, while the Hoosiers are looking to cap off a perfect season with the program’s inaugural National Championship.

Online sportsbooks are siding with Indiana by 8.5 points in the college football odds, after the line dropped to -7.5 for less than 24 hours on Sunday.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Miami vs Indiana prediction and pick for Monday’s National Championship Game.

Final Miami vs Indiana Prediction

• Over 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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I want to pull the trigger on laying the points with Indiana, but ultimately I’m siding with over 47.5 tonight. The Hoosiers are a well-oiled machine and have destroyed teams with their efficiency all season long.

Indiana averaged north of 40 points during the regular season, and has hung 38 and 56 points in the College Football Playoff on Alabama and Oregon, respectively. The Hoosiers are littered with talent, led by future No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, and can pick teams apart on the ground and through the air.

Let’s start with the passing attack. The CFP National Championship odds favorite boasts the number two success rate through the air, and ranks fourth in yards per pass. There’s been a lot of chatter about the Hurricanes’ pass rush led by Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, but if Indiana’s top-16 pass-blocking line can give Mendoza time, this won’t be much of a fight.

In a clean pocket this season, Mendoza has a 78% completion percentage and a 32-to-4 TD-to-INT rate. Under pressure, his efficiency drops, but nowhere near as much as most QB’s. Mendoza still averages 8 yards per attempt under duress and boasts a 71.7 passing grade. If Miami’s pass rush can’t get home, the defense is susceptible to big plays, as they rank outside the top-85 in tackling and explosive plays allowed.

Should the Canes slow down the Hoosiers’ aerial attack, Indiana can easily find success on the ground. The Hoosiers own the number two rushing rating in the nation, and backs Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby get to operate behind a top-four run blocking unit. Miami grades out well against the run, but did surrender nearly 6.0 yards per carry to Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl.

Speaking of that contest, the Rebels were able to neutralize the Miami pass rush with a combination of tempo and quick hitters, just like SMU did earlier in the season. The Mustangs laid the blueprint for how to beat the Canes with their upset victory, and Ole Miss came so close to replicating the effort.

Indiana will sprinkle in some of what they learned from those two matchups to exploit Miami’s biggest weaknesses, resulting in plenty of points.

Indiana Hoosiers Offense

On the other side of the ball, the Hurricanes want to bleed the clock dry with their rushing attack, but good luck finding success against this Hoosiers’ run defense. They allow just 3.0 yards per carry, and the third fewest rushing yards in college football.

That means we should expect to see plenty of Carson Beck volume. The key to the Miami passing attack is keeping Beck clean, as, unlike Mendoza, his numbers crater when the heat is on. Beck’s completion percentage drops by 25% under pressure, and he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Compare that to Mendoza, who still boasts a 4.5-to-1 TD-to-INT rate under duress.

Fortunately for Beck and co., the pass rush is not the Hoosiers’ forte. They’re solid everywhere else, but if they can’t create havoc on Beck, I do expect Miami to be able to move the ball enough to get this game over the number.

Don’t forget, this Hurricanes team did average 31 points per game in the regular season, and put up 24+ points in five of six games versus top-25 programs.

Looking for more Miami vs Indiana coverage? Check out:

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Miami vs Indiana Pick

• Kaelon Black Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

I’ve been backing Kaelon Black as an anytime TD scorer lately, but the college football player props market has finally adjusted his odds to the point where he’s no longer a value. I still want to invest in him tonight, and am targeting over 59.5 rushing yards.

Black has cleared this number in four straight games and averages more yards per attempt than Roman Hemby. He’s also seen a major increase in usage recently, with 12+ carries in six of his last seven games, and I expect a few more carries than usual tonight as Indiana tries to slow down the Miami edge rushers.

We just saw Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy rip off a 103-yard performance against the Canes, and while 100+ rushing yards would be an outlier performance for Black, 70+ yards is well within his range of outcomes.