Final Miami vs Ohio State Prediction, Expert Pick & Line (Dec. 31)

• #2 Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite over #10 Miami in the CFP Quarterfinals tonight
• Miami boasts the FBS’ second-highest graded pass rush, and rank top-7 in scoring defense and yards per play
• See my Final Miami vs Ohio State prediction and expert pick below, plus the latest betting lines

The New Year’s Eve college football slate is like dinner at a fine restaurant. The four early matchups represent the first few dishes, while the Miami (11-2) vs Ohio State (12-1) CFP quarterfinal is the main course.

Online sportsbooks expect the reigning champs to cruise into the semis, pegging the Buckeyes as big favorites in the college football odds. I’d think twice, however, before running to bet Ohio State against the spread, as this Hurricanes defense is an absolute nightmare to prepare for.

The action is set for 7:30 pm ET from AT&T Stadium, in Dallas, TX, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Miami vs Ohio State prediction and expert pick, along with the latest betting line.

Final Miami vs Ohio State Prediction

The Buckeyes enter play as the favorites in the CFP National Championship odds, but I can’t think of a worse matchup for Julian Sayin and co. Miami’s pass rush is the second-highest graded unit by PFF, and has generated over 300 pressures in 13 games. They are relentless in their pursuit of the QB, and they accomplish the feat without blitzing.

That’s extremely significant in this game because Ohio State features two of the best receivers in the nation (Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate). Their front four dominance allows the Canes to drop seven bodies, which is a big reason they grade out so highly in coverage (12th overall).

Miami Hurricanes Defense

Miami completely destroyed a very good Texas A&M passing game in their CFP opener, holding Marcel Reed and Co. to 3 points, while picking him off twice and sacking him 7 times. They accomplished the feat without starting corner Damari Brown, and he’s expected to sit tonight as well.

As for tonight, the Hurricanes’ pass rush is in a favorable spot. They’ll go up against a Buckeyes offensive line that ranks just 30th in pass block win rate, and allowed five sacks to an inferior Indiana front in the Big Ten Championship Game. To make matters worse, Ohio State is banged up on the o-line, and will be without starting right guard Tegra Tshabola.

Sayin, meanwhile, has sparkling numbers when kept clean this season, but his production dips dramatically under duress. His passing grade falls by 22 points under pressure, while his completion percentage drops by 22%.

If you think the answer is to just pound the rock if you’re the Buckeyes, think again. Miami ranks seventh in yards per carry allowed, and sixth in rushing yards surrendered per game.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t expect a ton of production from the ‘Canes offense. Carson Beck couldn’t get anything going versus the Aggies, and now faces one of the best defenses the college game has ever seen.

Ohio State ranks first in scoring defense, total yards allowed and yards per play. They’re second in red zone scoring percentage allowed, and third in yards per carry surrendered. If there’s a weakness, it’s their pass rush (35th nationally), but they make up for it by ranking 17th in coverage, and second in total tackling.

With both defenses set up for success, it begs the question how will points be scored? Online sportsbooks are not expecting much offense from either side, as the total has plummeted to as low as 40.5.

Special teams could be a deciding factor, and that’s where the Hurricanes have a major advantage.

Looking for more Miami vs Ohio State coverage? Check out:

Miami vs Oho State Injury Report

Miami vs Ohio State Expert Pick

Miami ranks 12th in special teams per SP+, while Ohio State is 63rd. In a low total game where every point matters, field position should favor the Hurricanes. That can lead to short drives that still result in points, most likely field goals, and don’t underestimate the importance of turnovers.

The Canes force 1.8 per outing, the 19th highest mark in the country. The Buckeyes aren’t nearly as takeaway happy, generating only 0.8 turnovers per game.

They say defense wins championships, and while I still expect Ohio State to advance in the CFP Bracket, Miami’s defense and special teams should make this matchup much closer than most predict.

Give me the Hurricanes +9.5.

Miami vs Ohio State Line

The best place to bet Miami against the spread is currently Bet365. They’re offering the Canes +9.5 at -110 odds, while most books have that side juiced higher.

As for the total, it varies between 40.5 and 41.5, so make sure to shop around for the best number based on your preference for either the over or the under.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. RG Line: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of Dec. 31 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on the College Football Playoff.

Per the college football public betting trends, Miami has been a moneymaker versus elite competition this season. The Hurricanes are 5-0 both straight up and against the spread versus top-25 teams.