Final Minnesota vs Oregon Prediction, Pick & Closing Line for Friday’s Big Ten Showdown

• Oregon is a 25.5-point favorite over Minnesota in Friday night Big Ten action
• The Golden Gophers are 0-3 on the road this season
• See below for my Minnesota vs Oregon prediction, pick and closing line for Friday, Nov 14

Friday night football hits Eugene as Minnesota travels west to face Oregon, with online sportsbooks expecting a blowout in the latest college football odds.

The Gophers (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) come off a bye week, while the Ducks (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) just survived an 18-16 nail-biter at Iowa. That extra rest might help Minnesota, but they’ll need more than preparation to hang with Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Friday, Nov 14.

Kickoff is set for 9 pm ET from Eugene, OR, with FOX handling the broadcast.

Final Minnesota vs Oregon Prediction

My Minnesota vs Oregon prediction starts with the ugly truth: The Gophers can’t win on the road. They’re 0-3 away from Minneapolis, losing by 14 to Cal, getting destroyed 42-3 at Ohio State, and most recently getting embarrassed 41-3 at Iowa.

Freshman QB Drake Lindsey looks like two different players depending on the location. His splits tell the whole story:

Drake Lindsey Home vs Road Splits

Lindsey’s 92.5 road passer rating ranks fourth-worst among qualified FBS quarterbacks. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown on the road either. Against an Oregon defense allowing just 13.8 points per game (6th nationally), Lindsey could be in for his worst outing yet on Friday.

The overall offensive numbers paint an even bleaker picture for the Gophers:

Gophers Offensive Stats

Those numbers won’t cut it against Oregon’s defense. The Ducks have given up only 32 explosive plays all season, second-fewest in the country.

Oregon owns a ridiculous 38-game winning streak against unranked teams. Their last loss? Stanford back in October 2021. At home against unranked opponents, they’ve won 43 straight dating back to 2016. That’s bad news for any bettors predicting a Gophers upset tonight.

The Ducks’ ground game should feast on Minnesota’s defense. Oregon averages 239.7 rushing yards per game (6th nationally), led by freshmen Jordon Davison (404 yards) and Dierre Hill Jr. (402 yards). Both rank in the Big Ten’s top five for freshman rushers.

Minnesota’s lone bright spot is its pass rush. They’ve recorded 32 sacks this season, with Anthony Smith tied for the Big Ten lead at 8.5. The problem is that Oregon QB Dante Moore has faced pressure well, completing 65.7% of his passes when blitzed, according to PFF.

Dan Lanning is 43-7 at Oregon and 32-0 against unranked teams since taking over in 2022. P.J. Fleck has built a solid program at Minnesota (64-42 record), but he’s just 7-17 against AP-ranked opponents.

Fame Ijeboi had a career-high 108 yards against Michigan State in Minnesota’s last game. But that was at home. On the road, this offense has been dreadful all year.

Oregon should roll here. Minnesota doesn’t have the horses to keep up, and their road struggles lead me to predict another blowout loss.

Minnesota vs Oregon Pick

Based on my prediction, I’m picking Oregon to cover the 25.5 points. BetMGM is offering -24.5, and I recommend taking advantage if you can. The Minnesota vs Oregon matchup looks like a mismatch on paper, and it should play out that way on the field.

The trends back up my Friday college football pick too. The Gophers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing 450+ total yards, which they just did against Michigan State. They’re also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four after an ATS loss.

Oregon, meanwhile, is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after rushing for 200+ yards. That’s a huge trend for Oregon backers after the Ducks went off for 261 rushing yards vs Iowa last time out. Oregon’s ground game is humming, and the Ducks have been able to parlay that rushing dominance across consecutive matchups.

• Minnesota vs Oregon Pick: Oregon -25.5 (-110)

Minnesota vs Oregon Closing Line

The betting line for Minnesota vs Oregon has been on the move all week. The spread opened at Oregon -22 on Sunday morning and immediately took big money. By Sunday night, it hit -23.5, then pushed through -24.5 on Monday.

Another line move occurred on Thursday when it jumped from +25 to +25.5. This was most likely public money, as sharps tend to pounce on early lines, whereas the public bets closer to kickoff. Some books are even dealing -26 now, though most have settled at -25.5.

The total sits at 44.5, which seems low given Oregon’s offensive firepower but is understandable considering Minnesota’s struggles to score on the road. Of note, the Under is on a 7-0 run in Friday night Oregon games.

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Odds as of November 14th. Check out the latest college football odds before betting on Week 12 action.

The final Oregon moneyline is right around -3333 at most books. That implies a 97% win probability. Minnesota backers can get +1350 if they want to dream big.