Final Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction, Opt Outs & Closing Xbox Bowl Odds

• Arkansas State is a 1-point favorite over Missouri State tonight in the Xbox Bowl
• The Bears offense ranks 92nd in INT% and 132nd in sack rate
• See my Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction, plus opt outs and the closing Xbox Bowl odds below

We’re on to Day 8 of 23 straight days of college football, with the Xbox Bowl being the lone game to sweat tonight. Missouri State (7-5) is trying to replicate Delaware’s performance last night, and win a Bowl Game in their inaugural FBS season. Standing in their way is Arkansas State (6-6), who are short favorites in the college football odds,

The action is set for 9 pm ET from the Ford Center at the Star in Frisco, TX, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction, plus opt-outs and the closing Xbox Bowl odds.

Final Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction

I think you can make a compelling case for both teams to win this game, but after digging into the numbers, I’m rolling with the Red Wolves as 1-point favorites. Also working in Arkansas State’s favor is that the Bears enter play with key absences, most notably their head coach.

Ryan Beard has moved on to Coastal Carolina, meaning offensive coordinator Nick Petrino will be in charge. Missouri State has already lost a pair of starters to the transfer portal, while their opponent is close to full strength.

Let’s start with the Bears offense. On paper, they should be able to put up points against a poor Red Wolves secondary, but there are some red flags. Missouri State is an undisciplined team, and one that is extremely turnover-prone. The Bears are one of the most penalized programs in the country, and average 1.5 giveaways per game. QB Jacob Clark threw 11 interceptions in just 11 starts, and was sacked 40 times.

Missouri State Offense Stats

Clark has prototypical quarterback size at 6’5″ and 220 pounds. The problem is he’s an absolute statue in the pocket. That spells trouble versus Arkansas State, whose defensive strength lies in its front. The Red Wolves rank 20th in sack rate this season, and 76th in pass rush win rate. I’m betting the Red Wolves can put a ton of pressure on Clark, forcing turnovers and derailing drives.

As for the Arkansas State offense, it’s not exactly on par with the CFP bracket contenders, but it has looked better recently. They’re fresh off back-to-back 30-point outings, with QB Jaylen Raynor committing just one turnover. Giveaways have stalled the offense this season, but when Raynor has played clean they’ve put up decent results.

The Red Wolves’ offense ranks 43rd in success rate, while Raynor threw for over 3,000 yards and rushed for another 434. His dual-threat abilities will keep the Bears’ defense on its toes, and he should be able to find success through the air and on the ground. Missouri State ranks 112th in yards per carry, and is 80th or worse in passing yards allowed, INT % and opponent completion percentage.

Another knock on the Bears’ defense is their inability to stop teams on third down or in the red zone. Missouri State ranks 91st in opponent third-down conversion rate, and 95th in red zone scoring defense. Arkansas State should be able to sustain drives and convert when they get in close. In a tightly projected game, that should be enough to push them over the top.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State Opt Outs

If you’re looking for a reason to bet against the Red Wolves, the absence of guard Tristian Smith is an issue. He’s their best linemen, and will miss this game due to injury. Still, that won’t get me off Arkansas State tonight, who don’t have any names listed in the college football opt outs tracker.

Missouri State on the other hand, has seen its third leading wide receiver Tristian Gardner and safety JJ O’Neal opt out. Several other players, including two team captains, will play despite intentions of entering the transfer portal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were looking beyond this game to their next opportunity.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State Closing Xbox Bowl Odds

The best place to bet Arkansas State -1 is currently as Caesars. They’re offering a -1 spread at -106 odds, while most commercial books are still at -1.5.

Total-wise, the number is painted 54.5 across the industry, with Bet365 offering the most favorable odds on the over, and BetMGM posting the shortest under odds.

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Odds as of Dec. 18 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, the Red Wolves have been a very profitable team to bet against the spread lately. Arkansas State is 6-1 ATS over its last seven outings, covering by an average of 7 points per game.